May 12, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are flat this morning while equity futures are pointing to a higher open this morning despite an uptick in virus cases and increasing trade tensions between the US and China. Equity markets have rallied since March as investors have viewed the easing of lockdowns as a catalyst for an economic recovery. But instances of new cases in countries that had seen a decline in new cases, such as South Korea and China, combined with trade tensions could be a hurdle for the rally.

Month over month core CPI experienced its largest decline since 1957 coming in at -0.4% vs a median expectation of -0.2%. Headline CPI declined by 0.8%, the steepest drop since December of 2008. The severity of the drops is just another data point regarding the historic impact that COVID-19 has had on the economy. If the economy were to see a continued decline in inflation it would likely spark fears of deflation, adding to the issues the Fed is currently facing.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

5/12/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism8390.996.4
5/12/2020CPI MoM-0.80%-0.80%-0.40%
5/12/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.20%-0.40%-0.10%
5/12/2020CPI YoY0.40%0.30%1.50%
5/12/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.40%2.10%
5/12/2020CPI Index NSA256.489256.39258.115
5/12/2020CPI Core Index SA266.11265.6266.795
5/12/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY7.50%1.60%
5/12/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY6.90%0.70%0.60%
5/12/2020Mortgage Delinquencies3.77%
5/12/2020MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.78%
5/12/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$737.0b$160.3b
5/13/2020MBA Mortgage Applications0.10%
5/13/2020PPI Final Demand MoM-0.50%-0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.10%0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM-0.10%-0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Final Demand YoY-0.40%0.70%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY0.90%1.40%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.40%1.00%
5/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-3.20%-2.30%
5/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.50%-0.10%
5/14/2020Import Price Index YoY-7.40%-4.10%
5/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-2.30%-1.60%
5/14/2020Export Price Index YoY-3.60%
5/14/2020Initial Jobless Claims2500k3169k
5/14/2020Continuing Claims25000k22647k
5/14/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort36.9
5/15/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM-12.00%-8.70%-8.40%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-7.60%-3.10%-2.80%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Control Group-4.90%1.70%2.00%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-8.40%-4.50%-4.20%
5/15/2020Empire Manufacturing-60-78.2
5/15/2020Industrial Production MoM-12.00%-5.40%
5/15/2020Capacity Utilization63.90%72.70%
5/15/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-13.70%-6.30%
5/15/2020Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/15/2020Business Inventories-0.20%-0.40%
5/15/2020JOLTS Job Openings58506882
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment67.571.8
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions74.3
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Expectations70.1
5/15/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.10%
5/15/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
5/15/2020Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.4b
5/15/2020Total Net TIC Flows-$13.4b
5/15/2020Revisions: Manufacturing Shipment, Inventories, Orders
5/15/2020Revisions: Manufacturing


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