May 12, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are flat this morning while equity futures are pointing to a higher open this morning despite an uptick in virus cases and increasing trade tensions between the US and China. Equity markets have rallied since March as investors have viewed the easing of lockdowns as a catalyst for an economic recovery. But instances of new cases in countries that had seen a decline in new cases, such as South Korea and China, combined with trade tensions could be a hurdle for the rally.

Month over month core CPI experienced its largest decline since 1957 coming in at -0.4% vs a median expectation of -0.2%. Headline CPI declined by 0.8%, the steepest drop since December of 2008. The severity of the drops is just another data point regarding the historic impact that COVID-19 has had on the economy. If the economy were to see a continued decline in inflation it would likely spark fears of deflation, adding to the issues the Fed is currently facing.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/12/2020 NFIB Small Business Optimism 83 90.9 96.4
5/12/2020 CPI MoM -0.80% -0.80% -0.40%
5/12/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM -0.20% -0.40% -0.10%
5/12/2020 CPI YoY 0.40% 0.30% 1.50%
5/12/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.70% 1.40% 2.10%
5/12/2020 CPI Index NSA 256.489 256.39 258.115
5/12/2020 CPI Core Index SA 266.11 265.6 266.795
5/12/2020 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 7.50% 1.60%
5/12/2020 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 6.90% 0.70% 0.60%
5/12/2020 Mortgage Delinquencies 3.77%
5/12/2020 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 0.78%
5/12/2020 Monthly Budget Statement -$737.0b $160.3b
5/13/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.10%
5/13/2020 PPI Final Demand MoM -0.50% -0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM -0.10% 0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM -0.10% -0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Final Demand YoY -0.40% 0.70%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 0.90% 1.40%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 0.40% 1.00%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index MoM -3.20% -2.30%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.50% -0.10%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index YoY -7.40% -4.10%
5/14/2020 Export Price Index MoM -2.30% -1.60%
5/14/2020 Export Price Index YoY -3.60%
5/14/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 2500k 3169k
5/14/2020 Continuing Claims 25000k 22647k
5/14/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 36.9
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Advance MoM -12.00% -8.70% -8.40%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas -7.60% -3.10% -2.80%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Control Group -4.90% 1.70% 2.00%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM -8.40% -4.50% -4.20%
5/15/2020 Empire Manufacturing -60 -78.2
5/15/2020 Industrial Production MoM -12.00% -5.40%
5/15/2020 Capacity Utilization 63.90% 72.70%
5/15/2020 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -13.70% -6.30%
5/15/2020 Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/15/2020 Business Inventories -0.20% -0.40%
5/15/2020 JOLTS Job Openings 5850 6882
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 67.5 71.8
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 74.3
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 70.1
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.10%
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%
5/15/2020 Net Long-term TIC Flows $49.4b
5/15/2020 Total Net TIC Flows -$13.4b
5/15/2020 Revisions: Manufacturing Shipment, Inventories, Orders
5/15/2020 Revisions: Manufacturing


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