May 12, 2021 Headlines

Inflation was higher than expected in April, hitting its highest level since 2009. This morning’s CPI release showed headline inflation up 0.8% last month versus 0.2% expected. Core CPI, excludes food and energy, was up 0.9% versus 0.3% expected. The increases were driven by an uptick of 10% for the cost of used vehicles and rising shelter costs. The annual numbers were up as well, though they are being skewed by the comparison to last year’s pandemic reduced index. The question has been and remains whether increasing prices are transitory. Chairman Powell has reiterated his belief that a pickup in inflation in the near-term will likely be short lived as the economy reopens, which is at odds with bond market expectations. The 5-year TIPS breakeven rate hit its highest level in 15 years.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
05/11/21NFIB Small Business Optimism100.899.898.2
05/11/21JOLTS Job Openings7500k8123k7367k7526k
05/12/21MBA Mortgage Applications2.10%-0.90%
05/12/21CPI MoM0.20%0.80%0.60%
05/12/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.90%0.30%
05/12/21CPI YoY3.60%4.20%2.60%
05/12/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%3.00%1.60%
05/12/21CPI Index NSA265.6267.054264.877
05/12/21CPI Core Index SA271.922273.7271.214
05/12/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-1.40%3.90%
05/12/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-3.70%1.50%
05/12/21Monthly Budget Statement-$207.9b-$738.0b
05/13/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%1.00%
05/13/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.70%
05/13/21Initial Jobless Claims490k498k
05/13/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.60%
05/13/21Continuing Claims3650k3690k
05/13/21PPI Final Demand YoY5.80%4.20%
05/13/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.80%3.10%
05/13/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.30%3.10%
05/13/21Langer Consumer Comfort54.4
05/14/21Retail Sales Advance MoM1.00%9.80%9.70%
05/14/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%8.40%
05/14/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%8.20%
05/14/21Retail Sales Control Group-0.40%6.90%
05/14/21Import Price Index MoM0.60%1.20%
05/14/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.90%
05/14/21Import Price Index YoY10.20%6.90%
05/14/21Export Price Index MoM0.80%2.10%
05/14/21Export Price Index YoY14.00%9.10%
05/14/21Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/14/21Industrial Production MoM1.00%1.40%
05/14/21Capacity Utilization75.00%74.40%
05/14/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%2.70%
05/14/21Business Inventories0.30%0.50%
05/14/21U. of Mich. Sentiment90.288.3
05/14/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions10097.2
05/14/21U. of Mich. Expectations84.882.7
05/14/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.50%3.40%
05/14/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
05/14/21Revisions: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Orders, Inventories

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