May 12, 2022 Headlines

A risk-off trade is sending Treasury yields lower and flatter across the curve this morning, with 5-10 year yields down 9 basis points at of 8:40am ET. S&P 500 futures are down 0.72%, and NASDAQ futures are down 1.4%. The primary catalysts for the risk aversion are the meltdown in the cryptocurrency market, as well as weaker than expected GDP results from the U.K. As we’ve discussed many times in recent weeks/months, there’s also strong technical factors at play in the Treasury market as well, as a relatively high level of short positions get stopped out in the rally, exacerbating the move. On the data front, April PPI was largely in line with expectations, although the core figure did come in below expectations. In Fed news, the Senate confirmed Philip Jefferson by a vote of 91-7 to join the Fed’s Board of Governors. Jefferson is an economist and administrator at Davidson College in North Carolina.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
05/09/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	2.30%	2.30%	2.30%	—
05/09/22	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	1.80%	1.70%	1.70%	1.50%
05/10/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	92.9	93.2	93.2	—
05/11/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	2.00%	2.50%	—
05/11/22	CPI MoM	0.20%	0.30%	1.20%	—
05/11/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	0.60%	0.30%	—
05/11/22	CPI YoY	8.10%	8.30%	8.50%	—
05/11/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.00%	6.20%	6.50%	—
05/11/22	CPI Index NSA	288.715	289.109	287.504	—
05/11/22	CPI Core Index SA	289.822	290.455	288.811	—
05/11/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-2.60%	-2.70%	-2.60%
05/11/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-3.40%	-3.60%	-3.50%
05/11/22	Monthly Budget Statement	$260.0b	$308.2b	-$225.6b	—
05/12/22	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.50%	0.50%	1.40%	1.60%
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.70%	0.40%	1.00%	1.20%
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.60%	0.60%	0.90%	0.90%
05/12/22	PPI Final Demand YoY	10.70%	11.00%	11.20%	11.50%
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	8.90%	8.80%	9.20%	9.60%
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	6.60%	6.90%	7.00%	7.10%
05/12/22	Initial Jobless Claims	193k	203k	200k	202k
05/12/22	Continuing Claims	1372k	1343k	1384k	1387k
05/13/22	Import Price Index MoM	0.60%	—	2.60%	—
05/13/22	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.80%	—	1.10%	—
05/13/22	Import Price Index YoY	12.20%	—	12.50%	—
05/13/22	Export Price Index MoM	0.70%	—	4.50%	—
05/13/22	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	18.80%	—
05/13/22	Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/13/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	64	—	65.2	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	69.5	—	69.4	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	61.4	—	62.5	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.50%	—	5.40%	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—
05/13/22	Revisions: Manufacturing Shipments, Orders, Inventories

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