May 12, 2022 Headlines

A risk-off trade is sending Treasury yields lower and flatter across the curve this morning, with 5-10 year yields down 9 basis points at of 8:40am ET. S&P 500 futures are down 0.72%, and NASDAQ futures are down 1.4%. The primary catalysts for the risk aversion are the meltdown in the cryptocurrency market, as well as weaker than expected GDP results from the U.K. As we’ve discussed many times in recent weeks/months, there’s also strong technical factors at play in the Treasury market as well, as a relatively high level of short positions get stopped out in the rally, exacerbating the move. On the data front, April PPI was largely in line with expectations, although the core figure did come in below expectations. In Fed news, the Senate confirmed Philip Jefferson by a vote of 91-7 to join the Fed’s Board of Governors. Jefferson is an economist and administrator at Davidson College in North Carolina.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
05/09/22 Wholesale Inventories MoM 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%
05/09/22 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 1.80% 1.70% 1.70% 1.50%
05/10/22 NFIB Small Business Optimism 92.9 93.2 93.2
05/11/22 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.00% 2.50%
05/11/22 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.30% 1.20%
05/11/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.40% 0.60% 0.30%
05/11/22 CPI YoY 8.10% 8.30% 8.50%
05/11/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 6.00% 6.20% 6.50%
05/11/22 CPI Index NSA 288.715 289.109 287.504
05/11/22 CPI Core Index SA 289.822 290.455 288.811
05/11/22 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -2.60% -2.70% -2.60%
05/11/22 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -3.40% -3.60% -3.50%
05/11/22 Monthly Budget Statement $260.0b $308.2b -$225.6b
05/12/22 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.50% 0.50% 1.40% 1.60%
05/12/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.70% 0.40% 1.00% 1.20%
05/12/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.60% 0.60% 0.90% 0.90%
05/12/22 PPI Final Demand YoY 10.70% 11.00% 11.20% 11.50%
05/12/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 8.90% 8.80% 9.20% 9.60%
05/12/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 6.60% 6.90% 7.00% 7.10%
05/12/22 Initial Jobless Claims 193k 203k 200k 202k
05/12/22 Continuing Claims 1372k 1343k 1384k 1387k
05/13/22 Import Price Index MoM 0.60% 2.60%
05/13/22 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.80% 1.10%
05/13/22 Import Price Index YoY 12.20% 12.50%
05/13/22 Export Price Index MoM 0.70% 4.50%
05/13/22 Export Price Index YoY 18.80%
05/13/22 Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/13/22 U. of Mich. Sentiment 64 65.2
05/13/22 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 69.5 69.4
05/13/22 U. of Mich. Expectations 61.4 62.5
05/13/22 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.50% 5.40%
05/13/22 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00%
05/13/22 Revisions: Manufacturing Shipments, Orders, Inventories

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