May 12, 2022 Headlines

A risk-off trade is sending Treasury yields lower and flatter across the curve this morning, with 5-10 year yields down 9 basis points at of 8:40am ET. S&P 500 futures are down 0.72%, and NASDAQ futures are down 1.4%. The primary catalysts for the risk aversion are the meltdown in the cryptocurrency market, as well as weaker than expected GDP results from the U.K. As we’ve discussed many times in recent weeks/months, there’s also strong technical factors at play in the Treasury market as well, as a relatively high level of short positions get stopped out in the rally, exacerbating the move. On the data front, April PPI was largely in line with expectations, although the core figure did come in below expectations. In Fed news, the Senate confirmed Philip Jefferson by a vote of 91-7 to join the Fed’s Board of Governors. Jefferson is an economist and administrator at Davidson College in North Carolina.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

05/09/22Wholesale Inventories MoM2.30%2.30%2.30%
05/09/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.80%1.70%1.70%1.50%
05/10/22NFIB Small Business Optimism92.993.293.2
05/11/22MBA Mortgage Applications2.00%2.50%
05/11/22CPI MoM0.20%0.30%1.20%
05/11/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.60%0.30%
05/11/22CPI YoY8.10%8.30%8.50%
05/11/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.00%6.20%6.50%
05/11/22CPI Index NSA288.715289.109287.504
05/11/22CPI Core Index SA289.822290.455288.811
05/11/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-2.60%-2.70%-2.60%
05/11/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.40%-3.60%-3.50%
05/11/22Monthly Budget Statement$260.0b$308.2b-$225.6b
05/12/22PPI Final Demand MoM0.50%0.50%1.40%1.60%
05/12/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.70%0.40%1.00%1.20%
05/12/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.60%0.60%0.90%0.90%
05/12/22PPI Final Demand YoY10.70%11.00%11.20%11.50%
05/12/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.90%8.80%9.20%9.60%
05/12/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.60%6.90%7.00%7.10%
05/12/22Initial Jobless Claims193k203k200k202k
05/12/22Continuing Claims1372k1343k1384k1387k
05/13/22Import Price Index MoM0.60%2.60%
05/13/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.80%1.10%
05/13/22Import Price Index YoY12.20%12.50%
05/13/22Export Price Index MoM0.70%4.50%
05/13/22Export Price Index YoY18.80%
05/13/22Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/13/22U. of Mich. Sentiment6465.2
05/13/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions69.569.4
05/13/22U. of Mich. Expectations61.462.5
05/13/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.50%5.40%
05/13/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%
05/13/22Revisions: Manufacturing Shipments, Orders, Inventories

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