May 12, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2 to 3 bps higher this morning on the back of strong earnings and news that a deal to raise the debt ceiling is closer. President Biden and House Speak McCarthy postponed their Friday meeting so that staffers could continue to hash out the details. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Treasury Secretary Yellen said that raising the debt ceiling is the only good outcome from current negotiations, stating that markets and households see that “Congress is committed to paying the bills”. Secretary Yellen has yet to outline what the Treasury would do if the ceiling is not raised but has said that the government could run out of cash as soon as June 1st.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Actual Prior Revised
05/08/23 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.00% 0.10% —
05/08/23 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM -2.10% 0.40% —
05/08/23 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
05/09/23 NFIB Small Business Optimism 89 90.1 —
05/10/23 MBA Mortgage Applications 6.30% -1.20% —
05/10/23 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.10% —
05/10/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.40% 0.40% —
05/10/23 CPI YoY 4.90% 5.00% —
05/10/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.50% 5.60% —
05/10/23 CPI Index NSA 303.363 301.836 —
05/10/23 CPI Core Index SA 306.489 305.24 —
05/10/23 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -1.10% -1.60% -1.50%
05/10/23 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -0.50% -0.70% -0.60%
05/10/23 Monthly Budget Statement $176.2b $308.2b —
05/11/23 Initial Jobless Claims 264k 242k —
05/11/23 Continuing Claims 1813k 1805k 1801k
05/11/23 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% -0.50% -0.40%
05/11/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% -0.10% 0.00%
05/11/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.10% —
05/11/23 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.30% 2.70% —
05/11/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 3.20% 3.40% —
05/11/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 3.40% 3.60% 3.70%
05/12/23 Import Price Index MoM — -0.60% —
05/12/23 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM — -0.60% —
05/12/23 Import Price Index YoY — -4.60% —
05/12/23 Export Price Index MoM — -0.30% —
05/12/23 Export Price Index YoY — -4.80% —
05/12/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment — 63.5 —
05/12/23 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — 68.2 —
05/12/23 U. of Mich. Expectations — 60.5 —
05/12/23 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — 4.60% —
05/12/23 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — 3.00% —

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