May 13, 2020 Headlines

Treasury prices are modestly higher as Fed Chair Powell discusses current economic issues via a Peterson Institute webinar. Powell’s opening comments included warnings of the long-term economic risks of prolonged unemployment at current levels. Powell noted “significant downside risks” to the current outlook, and he pledged that the Fed would continue to use its policy tools to the fullest until the “recovery is well under way.”  However, he reiterated the limitations of monetary policy, noting that the central bank has lending powers, not spending powers. As such, he suggested that, while “costly”, additional fiscal support may be necessary to avoid “long-term economic damage.” Regarding the timing of the recovery, Powell summed it up quite well by posing a series of questions related to consumer psyche (i.e., how long before returning to normal behaviors/consumption), as well as the scope and timing of new therapies, vaccines, and testing.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
5/12/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism8390.996.4
5/12/2020CPI MoM-0.80%-0.80%-0.40%
5/12/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.20%-0.40%-0.10%
5/12/2020CPI YoY0.40%0.30%1.50%
5/12/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.40%2.10%
5/12/2020CPI Index NSA256.489256.389258.115
5/12/2020CPI Core Index SA266.11265.601266.795
5/12/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY7.50%1.60%
5/12/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY6.90%0.70%0.60%
5/12/2020Mortgage Delinquencies4.36%3.77%
5/12/2020MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.73%0.78%
5/12/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$737.0b-$737.9b$160.3b
5/13/2020MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%0.10%
5/13/2020PPI Final Demand MoM-0.50%-1.30%-0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.10%-0.30%0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM-0.10%-0.90%-0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Final Demand YoY-0.40%-1.20%0.70%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY0.80%0.60%1.40%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.60%-0.30%1.00%
5/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-3.20%-2.30%
5/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.50%-0.10%
5/14/2020Import Price Index YoY-7.40%-4.10%
5/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-2.30%-1.60%
5/14/2020Export Price Index YoY-3.60%
5/14/2020Initial Jobless Claims2500k3169k
5/14/2020Continuing Claims25120k22647k
5/14/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort36.9
5/15/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM-12.00%-8.70%-8.40%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-7.70%-3.10%-2.80%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Control Group-5.00%1.70%2.00%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-8.50%-4.50%-4.20%
5/15/2020Empire Manufacturing-60-78.2
5/15/2020Industrial Production MoM-12.00%-5.40%
5/15/2020Capacity Utilization63.80%72.70%
5/15/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-14.60%-6.30%
5/15/2020Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/15/2020Business Inventories-0.20%-0.40%
5/15/2020JOLTS Job Openings58006882
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment6871.8
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions62.874.3
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Expectations60.270.1
5/15/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.00%2.10%
5/15/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
5/15/2020Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.4b
5/15/2020Total Net TIC Flows-$13.4b
5/15/2020Revisions: Manufacturing Shipment, Inventories, Orders

 

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