May 13, 2021 Headlines

Yield buyers emerged overnight following yesterday’s CPI-driven sell-off in Treasuries. Equity markets are also looking to rebound from this week’s declines which have sent the S&P 500 down nearly 4% and NASDAQ down more than 5%. Yesterday’s CPI report further fueled arguments from inflation hawks that sustained, upward price pressures are imminent, but the doves, including Fed leadership, are sticking to the transitory argument for now, saying much of yesterday’s historic surge in core prices was driven by supply chain bottlenecks. As we’ve noted over the last several weeks, Powell & Co. will be challenged by financial markets to maintain this position  if we see many more inflation reports like yesterday, regardless of whether they are correct in their opinion.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/13/2021 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.30% 0.60% 1.00% —
5/13/2021 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.40% 0.70% 0.70% —
5/13/2021 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.30% 0.70% 0.60% —
5/13/2021 PPI Final Demand YoY 5.80% 6.20% 4.20% —
5/13/2021 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 3.80% 4.10% 3.10% —
5/13/2021 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 4.30% 4.60% 3.10% —
5/13/2021 Initial Jobless Claims 490k 473k 498k 507k
5/13/2021 Continuing Claims 3650k 3655k 3690k 3700k
5/13/2021 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 54.4 —
5/14/2021 Retail Sales Advance MoM 1.00% — 9.80% 9.70%
5/14/2021 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.70% — 8.40% —
5/14/2021 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% — 8.20% —
5/14/2021 Retail Sales Control Group -0.40% — 6.90% —
5/14/2021 Import Price Index MoM 0.60% — 1.20% —
5/14/2021 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.50% — 0.90% —
5/14/2021 Import Price Index YoY 10.20% — 6.90% —
5/14/2021 Export Price Index MoM 0.80% — 2.10% —
5/14/2021 Export Price Index YoY 14.00% — 9.10% —
5/14/2021 Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/14/2021 Industrial Production MoM 1.00% — 1.40% —
5/14/2021 Capacity Utilization 75.00% — 74.40% —
5/14/2021 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.20% — 2.70% —
5/14/2021 Business Inventories 0.30% — 0.50% —
5/14/2021 U. of Mich. Sentiment 90.2 — 88.3 —
5/14/2021 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 100 — 97.2 —
5/14/2021 U. of Mich. Expectations 84.8 — 82.7 —
5/14/2021 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.50% — 3.40% —
5/14/2021 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —
5/14/2021 Revisions: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Orders, Inventories

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