May 13, 2021 Headlines

Yield buyers emerged overnight following yesterday’s CPI-driven sell-off in Treasuries. Equity markets are also looking to rebound from this week’s declines which have sent the S&P 500 down nearly 4% and NASDAQ down more than 5%. Yesterday’s CPI report further fueled arguments from inflation hawks that sustained, upward price pressures are imminent, but the doves, including Fed leadership, are sticking to the transitory argument for now, saying much of yesterday’s historic surge in core prices was driven by supply chain bottlenecks. As we’ve noted over the last several weeks, Powell & Co. will be challenged by financial markets to maintain this position  if we see many more inflation reports like yesterday, regardless of whether they are correct in their opinion.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

5/13/2021PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.60%1.00%
5/13/2021PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.70%0.70%
5/13/2021PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.70%0.60%
5/13/2021PPI Final Demand YoY5.80%6.20%4.20%
5/13/2021PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.80%4.10%3.10%
5/13/2021PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.30%4.60%3.10%
5/13/2021Initial Jobless Claims490k473k498k507k
5/13/2021Continuing Claims3650k3655k3690k3700k
5/13/2021Langer Consumer Comfort54.4
5/14/2021Retail Sales Advance MoM1.00%9.80%9.70%
5/14/2021Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.70%8.40%
5/14/2021Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%8.20%
5/14/2021Retail Sales Control Group-0.40%6.90%
5/14/2021Import Price Index MoM0.60%1.20%
5/14/2021Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.90%
5/14/2021Import Price Index YoY10.20%6.90%
5/14/2021Export Price Index MoM0.80%2.10%
5/14/2021Export Price Index YoY14.00%9.10%
5/14/2021Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/14/2021Industrial Production MoM1.00%1.40%
5/14/2021Capacity Utilization75.00%74.40%
5/14/2021Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%2.70%
5/14/2021Business Inventories0.30%0.50%
5/14/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment90.288.3
5/14/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions10097.2
5/14/2021U. of Mich. Expectations84.882.7
5/14/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.50%3.40%
5/14/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
5/14/2021Revisions: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Orders, Inventories

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