May 13, 2022 Headlines

The recent rally in Treasuries cooled overnight, and yields are up 5-7 basis points across the curve to start the day. Markets are digesting the most recent Fedspeak from yesterday afternoon. Fed Chair Powell made headlines when warned that getting inflation under control could cause some economic pain and that he couldn’t promise a soft landing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, considered one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, later made headlines when she characterized the recent tightening of financial conditions (lower equities, higher bond yields) as just a “good start.” At the same time, she expressed support for more 50 bps rate hikes and said 75 bps hikes are “not a primary consideration.” Powell’s assessment of risks to the economy amid the Fed’s tightening efforts should be fairly obvious at this point, but financial markets are clearly more sensitive to any guidance from central bank leaders.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
05/09/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	2.30%	2.30%	2.30%	—
05/09/22	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	1.80%	1.70%	1.70%	1.50%
05/10/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	92.9	93.2	93.2	—
05/11/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	2.00%	2.50%	—
05/11/22	CPI MoM	0.20%	0.30%	1.20%	—
05/11/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	0.60%	0.30%	—
05/11/22	CPI YoY	8.10%	8.30%	8.50%	—
05/11/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.00%	6.20%	6.50%	—
05/11/22	CPI Index NSA	288.715	289.109	287.504	—
05/11/22	CPI Core Index SA	289.822	290.455	288.811	—
05/11/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-2.60%	-2.70%	-2.60%
05/11/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-3.40%	-3.60%	-3.50%
05/11/22	Monthly Budget Statement	$260.0b	$308.2b	-$225.6b	—
05/12/22	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.50%	0.50%	1.40%	1.60%
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.70%	0.40%	1.00%	1.20%
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.60%	0.60%	0.90%	0.90%
05/12/22	PPI Final Demand YoY	10.70%	11.00%	11.20%	11.50%
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	8.90%	8.80%	9.20%	9.60%
05/12/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	6.60%	6.90%	7.00%	7.10%
05/12/22	Initial Jobless Claims	193k	203k	200k	202k
05/12/22	Continuing Claims	1372k	1343k	1384k	1387k
05/13/22	Import Price Index MoM	0.60%	0.00%	2.60%	2.90%
05/13/22	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.70%	0.40%	1.10%	1.20%
05/13/22	Import Price Index YoY	12.30%	12.00%	12.50%	13.00%
05/13/22	Export Price Index MoM	0.70%	0.60%	4.50%	4.10%
05/13/22	Export Price Index YoY	19.20%	18.00%	18.80%	18.60%
05/13/22	Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/13/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	64	—	65.2	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	69.3	—	69.4	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	61.5	—	62.5	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.50%	—	5.40%	—
05/13/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—
05/13/22	Revisions: Manufacturing Shipments, Orders, Inventories

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