May 13, 2022 Headlines

The recent rally in Treasuries cooled overnight, and yields are up 5-7 basis points across the curve to start the day. Markets are digesting the most recent Fedspeak from yesterday afternoon. Fed Chair Powell made headlines when warned that getting inflation under control could cause some economic pain and that he couldn’t promise a soft landing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, considered one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, later made headlines when she characterized the recent tightening of financial conditions (lower equities, higher bond yields) as just a “good start.” At the same time, she expressed support for more 50 bps rate hikes and said 75 bps hikes are “not a primary consideration.” Powell’s assessment of risks to the economy amid the Fed’s tightening efforts should be fairly obvious at this point, but financial markets are clearly more sensitive to any guidance from central bank leaders.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

05/09/22Wholesale Inventories MoM2.30%2.30%2.30%
05/09/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.80%1.70%1.70%1.50%
05/10/22NFIB Small Business Optimism92.993.293.2
05/11/22MBA Mortgage Applications2.00%2.50%
05/11/22CPI MoM0.20%0.30%1.20%
05/11/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.60%0.30%
05/11/22CPI YoY8.10%8.30%8.50%
05/11/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.00%6.20%6.50%
05/11/22CPI Index NSA288.715289.109287.504
05/11/22CPI Core Index SA289.822290.455288.811
05/11/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-2.60%-2.70%-2.60%
05/11/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.40%-3.60%-3.50%
05/11/22Monthly Budget Statement$260.0b$308.2b-$225.6b
05/12/22PPI Final Demand MoM0.50%0.50%1.40%1.60%
05/12/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.70%0.40%1.00%1.20%
05/12/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.60%0.60%0.90%0.90%
05/12/22PPI Final Demand YoY10.70%11.00%11.20%11.50%
05/12/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.90%8.80%9.20%9.60%
05/12/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.60%6.90%7.00%7.10%
05/12/22Initial Jobless Claims193k203k200k202k
05/12/22Continuing Claims1372k1343k1384k1387k
05/13/22Import Price Index MoM0.60%0.00%2.60%2.90%
05/13/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.70%0.40%1.10%1.20%
05/13/22Import Price Index YoY12.30%12.00%12.50%13.00%
05/13/22Export Price Index MoM0.70%0.60%4.50%4.10%
05/13/22Export Price Index YoY19.20%18.00%18.80%18.60%
05/13/22Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/13/22U. of Mich. Sentiment6465.2
05/13/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions69.369.4
05/13/22U. of Mich. Expectations61.562.5
05/13/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.50%5.40%
05/13/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%
05/13/22Revisions: Manufacturing Shipments, Orders, Inventories


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