May 14, 2020 Headlines

The Treasury curve is flatter this morning with the 2-year essentially unchanged while the 10-year is 4 basis points lower. The impetus for this risk off move were the comments made by President Trump that suggested a further escalation in tensions between China and the US. Additionally, any hopes of a rebound this morning were dashed upon the release of jobless claims data. For the eighth straight week, US jobless claims stayed in the millions, with last week showing an increase of 3 million. This brings the total number of newly unemployed to 36.5 million, close to the total number of Americans who filed claims during the 18 months that spanned the last recession.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/12/2020 NFIB Small Business Optimism 83 90.9 96.4
5/12/2020 CPI MoM -0.80% -0.80% -0.40%
5/12/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM -0.20% -0.40% -0.10%
5/12/2020 CPI YoY 0.40% 0.30% 1.50%
5/12/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.70% 1.40% 2.10%
5/12/2020 CPI Index NSA 256.489 256.389 258.115
5/12/2020 CPI Core Index SA 266.11 265.601 266.795
5/12/2020 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 7.50% 1.60%
5/12/2020 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 6.90% 0.70% 0.60%
5/12/2020 Mortgage Delinquencies 4.36% 3.77%
5/12/2020 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 0.73% 0.78%
5/12/2020 Monthly Budget Statement -$737.0b -$737.9b $160.3b
5/13/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.30% 0.10%
5/13/2020 PPI Final Demand MoM -0.50% -1.30% -0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM -0.10% -0.30% 0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM -0.10% -0.90% -0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Final Demand YoY -0.40% -1.20% 0.70%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 0.80% 0.60% 1.40%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 0.60% -0.30% 1.00%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index MoM -3.20% -2.60% -2.30% -2.40%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.50% -0.50% -0.10% -0.20%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index YoY -7.40% -6.80% -4.10% -4.20%
5/14/2020 Export Price Index MoM -2.30% -3.30% -1.60% -1.70%
5/14/2020 Export Price Index YoY -7.00% -3.60% -3.80%
5/14/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 2500k 2981k 3169k 3176k
5/14/2020 Continuing Claims 25120k 22833k 22647k 22377k
5/14/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 36.9
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Advance MoM -12.00% -8.70% -8.40%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas -7.60% -3.10% -2.80%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Control Group -4.90% 1.70% 2.00%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM -8.50% -4.50% -4.20%
5/15/2020 Empire Manufacturing -60 -78.2
5/15/2020 Industrial Production MoM -12.00% -5.40%
5/15/2020 Capacity Utilization 63.80% 72.70%
5/15/2020 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -14.60% -6.30%
5/15/2020 Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/15/2020 Business Inventories -0.20% -0.40%
5/15/2020 JOLTS Job Openings 5800 6882
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 68 71.8
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 62.8 74.3
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 60.2 70.1
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.00% 2.10%
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%
5/15/2020 Net Long-term TIC Flows $49.4b
5/15/2020 Total Net TIC Flows -$13.4b
5/15/2020 Revisions: Manufacturing Shipment, Inventories, Orders



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