May 14, 2020 Headlines

The Treasury curve is flatter this morning with the 2-year essentially unchanged while the 10-year is 4 basis points lower. The impetus for this risk off move were the comments made by President Trump that suggested a further escalation in tensions between China and the US. Additionally, any hopes of a rebound this morning were dashed upon the release of jobless claims data. For the eighth straight week, US jobless claims stayed in the millions, with last week showing an increase of 3 million. This brings the total number of newly unemployed to 36.5 million, close to the total number of Americans who filed claims during the 18 months that spanned the last recession.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

5/12/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism8390.996.4
5/12/2020CPI MoM-0.80%-0.80%-0.40%
5/12/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.20%-0.40%-0.10%
5/12/2020CPI YoY0.40%0.30%1.50%
5/12/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.40%2.10%
5/12/2020CPI Index NSA256.489256.389258.115
5/12/2020CPI Core Index SA266.11265.601266.795
5/12/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY7.50%1.60%
5/12/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY6.90%0.70%0.60%
5/12/2020Mortgage Delinquencies4.36%3.77%
5/12/2020MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.73%0.78%
5/12/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$737.0b-$737.9b$160.3b
5/13/2020MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%0.10%
5/13/2020PPI Final Demand MoM-0.50%-1.30%-0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.10%-0.30%0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM-0.10%-0.90%-0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Final Demand YoY-0.40%-1.20%0.70%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY0.80%0.60%1.40%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.60%-0.30%1.00%
5/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-3.20%-2.60%-2.30%-2.40%
5/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.50%-0.50%-0.10%-0.20%
5/14/2020Import Price Index YoY-7.40%-6.80%-4.10%-4.20%
5/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-2.30%-3.30%-1.60%-1.70%
5/14/2020Export Price Index YoY-7.00%-3.60%-3.80%
5/14/2020Initial Jobless Claims2500k2981k3169k3176k
5/14/2020Continuing Claims25120k22833k22647k22377k
5/14/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort36.9
5/15/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM-12.00%-8.70%-8.40%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-7.60%-3.10%-2.80%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Control Group-4.90%1.70%2.00%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-8.50%-4.50%-4.20%
5/15/2020Empire Manufacturing-60-78.2
5/15/2020Industrial Production MoM-12.00%-5.40%
5/15/2020Capacity Utilization63.80%72.70%
5/15/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-14.60%-6.30%
5/15/2020Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/15/2020Business Inventories-0.20%-0.40%
5/15/2020JOLTS Job Openings58006882
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment6871.8
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions62.874.3
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Expectations60.270.1
5/15/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.00%2.10%
5/15/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
5/15/2020Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.4b
5/15/2020Total Net TIC Flows-$13.4b
5/15/2020Revisions: Manufacturing Shipment, Inventories, Orders



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