May 14, 2021 Headlines

Inflation worries continue to fade from the immediate shock following Wednesday’s CPI report. Treasury yields are modestly lower across the curve for a second day, and the breakeven yield on 5-year TIPS is down more than 15 bps from Wednesday’s high. The April retail sales report disappointed relative to expectations. Headline sales were flat m/m versus expectations of a 1% gain, and the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, fell 1.5% versus -0.2% expected. April sales were expected to slow following a torrid pace in Q1 fueled by fiscal stimulus. That said, personal consumption is still expected to be well above trend in Q2 (Bloomberg median survey currently at 9%).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
5/14/2021Retail Sales Advance MoM1.00%0.00%9.80%10.70%
5/14/2021Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%-0.80%8.40%9.00%
5/14/2021Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%-0.80%8.20%8.90%
5/14/2021Retail Sales Control Group-0.20%-1.50%6.90%7.60%
5/14/2021Import Price Index MoM0.60%0.70%1.20%1.40%
5/14/2021Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.70%0.90%0.80%
5/14/2021Import Price Index YoY10.20%10.60%6.90%7.00%
5/14/2021Export Price Index MoM0.80%0.80%2.10%2.40%
5/14/2021Export Price Index YoY14.00%14.40%9.10%9.50%
5/14/2021Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/14/2021Industrial Production MoM0.90%0.70%1.40%2.40%
5/14/2021Capacity Utilization75.00%74.90%74.40%
5/14/2021Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.40%2.70%3.10%
5/14/2021Business Inventories0.30%0.50%
5/14/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment9088.3
5/14/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions99.897.2
5/14/2021U. of Mich. Expectations84.582.7
5/14/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.50%3.40%
5/14/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
5/14/2021Revisions: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Orders, Inventories

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