May 14, 2021 Headlines

Inflation worries continue to fade from the immediate shock following Wednesday’s CPI report. Treasury yields are modestly lower across the curve for a second day, and the breakeven yield on 5-year TIPS is down more than 15 bps from Wednesday’s high. The April retail sales report disappointed relative to expectations. Headline sales were flat m/m versus expectations of a 1% gain, and the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, fell 1.5% versus -0.2% expected. April sales were expected to slow following a torrid pace in Q1 fueled by fiscal stimulus. That said, personal consumption is still expected to be well above trend in Q2 (Bloomberg median survey currently at 9%).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/14/2021 Retail Sales Advance MoM 1.00% 0.00% 9.80% 10.70%
5/14/2021 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.60% -0.80% 8.40% 9.00%
5/14/2021 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% -0.80% 8.20% 8.90%
5/14/2021 Retail Sales Control Group -0.20% -1.50% 6.90% 7.60%
5/14/2021 Import Price Index MoM 0.60% 0.70% 1.20% 1.40%
5/14/2021 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.50% 0.70% 0.90% 0.80%
5/14/2021 Import Price Index YoY 10.20% 10.60% 6.90% 7.00%
5/14/2021 Export Price Index MoM 0.80% 0.80% 2.10% 2.40%
5/14/2021 Export Price Index YoY 14.00% 14.40% 9.10% 9.50%
5/14/2021 Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/14/2021 Industrial Production MoM 0.90% 0.70% 1.40% 2.40%
5/14/2021 Capacity Utilization 75.00% 74.90% 74.40% —
5/14/2021 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.30% 0.40% 2.70% 3.10%
5/14/2021 Business Inventories 0.30% — 0.50% —
5/14/2021 U. of Mich. Sentiment 90 — 88.3 —
5/14/2021 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 99.8 — 97.2 —
5/14/2021 U. of Mich. Expectations 84.5 — 82.7 —
5/14/2021 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.50% — 3.40% —
5/14/2021 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —
5/14/2021 Revisions: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Orders, Inventories

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