May 15, 2019 Headlines

The bearish tone in risk markets resumed overnight, with geopolitical concerns and weaker economic data adding to the anxiousness surrounding U.S./China negotiations. Treasury yields are down 3-5 bps across the curve, with the 5-year yield at the lowest level since December 2017 (2.14%). At the time, the top-end of the fed funds target range was 1.25%. The U.S. State Department has ordered all non-emergency government officials to withdraw from Iraq. The directive did not provide any details as to what led to the order, but the general assumption is that it’s related to ongoing tensions with Iran. China released several economic reports overnight for April, and all were worse than expected. This is contributing to the risk-off tone in the market, but at the same time, weaker Chinese data may create greater urgency from Chinese officials to strike a trade deal. The U.S. retail sales report for April was also softer than expected, with the control group flat on the month versus expectations of a 0.3% gain. The control group, which excludes building materials, auto dealers, and gasoline receipts, is used in the GDP report.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
5/15/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-0.60%2.70%
5/15/2019Retail sales lock-up Canceled– Data Released Live
5/15/2019Empire Manufacturing817.810.1
5/15/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%-0.20%1.60%1.70%
5/15/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.70%0.10%1.20%1.30%
5/15/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%-0.20%0.90%1.10%
5/15/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.00%1.00%1.10%
5/15/2019Industrial Production MoM0.00%-0.50%-0.10%0.20%
5/15/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%-0.50%0.00%
5/15/2019Capacity Utilization78.70%77.90%78.80%78.50%
5/15/2019NAHB Housing Market Index6463
5/15/2019Business Inventories0.00%0.30%
5/15/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$51.9b
5/15/2019Total Net TIC Flows-$21.6b
5/16/2019Revisions: Housing Starts & Building Permits
5/16/2019Housing Starts1209k1139k
5/16/2019Housing Starts MoM6.20%-0.30%
5/16/2019Building Permits1290k1269k1288k
5/16/2019Building Permits MoM0.20%-1.70%-0.20%
5/16/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook98.5
5/16/2019Initial Jobless Claims220k228k
5/16/2019Continuing Claims1675k1684k
5/16/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.8
5/16/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations50
5/16/2019Revisions: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, Orders
5/17/2019Leading Index0.20%0.40%
5/17/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment97.297.2
5/17/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions112.3
5/17/2019U. of Mich. Expectations87.4
5/17/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
5/17/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%

 

 

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