The bearish tone in risk markets resumed overnight, with geopolitical concerns and weaker economic data adding to the anxiousness surrounding U.S./China negotiations. Treasury yields are down 3-5 bps across the curve, with the 5-year yield at the lowest level since December 2017 (2.14%). At the time, the top-end of the fed funds target range was 1.25%. The U.S. State Department has ordered all non-emergency government officials to withdraw from Iraq. The directive did not provide any details as to what led to the order, but the general assumption is that it’s related to ongoing tensions with Iran. China released several economic reports overnight for April, and all were worse than expected. This is contributing to the risk-off tone in the market, but at the same time, weaker Chinese data may create greater urgency from Chinese officials to strike a trade deal. The U.S. retail sales report for April was also softer than expected, with the control group flat on the month versus expectations of a 0.3% gain. The control group, which excludes building materials, auto dealers, and gasoline receipts, is used in the GDP report.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
5/15/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.60% | 2.70% | — |
5/15/2019 | Retail sales lock-up Canceled– Data Released Live | ||||
5/15/2019 | Empire Manufacturing | 8 | 17.8 | 10.1 | — |
5/15/2019 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | -0.20% | 1.60% | 1.70% |
5/15/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.70% | 0.10% | 1.20% | 1.30% |
5/15/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | -0.20% | 0.90% | 1.10% |
5/15/2019 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | 0.00% | 1.00% | 1.10% |
5/15/2019 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.00% | -0.50% | -0.10% | 0.20% |
5/15/2019 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.00% | -0.50% | 0.00% | — |
5/15/2019 | Capacity Utilization | 78.70% | 77.90% | 78.80% | 78.50% |
5/15/2019 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 64 | — | 63 | — |
5/15/2019 | Business Inventories | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
5/15/2019 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $51.9b | — |
5/15/2019 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$21.6b | — |
5/16/2019 | Revisions: Housing Starts & Building Permits | ||||
5/16/2019 | Housing Starts | 1209k | — | 1139k | — |
5/16/2019 | Housing Starts MoM | 6.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
5/16/2019 | Building Permits | 1290k | — | 1269k | 1288k |
5/16/2019 | Building Permits MoM | 0.20% | — | -1.70% | -0.20% |
5/16/2019 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 9 | — | 8.5 | — |
5/16/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 228k | — |
5/16/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1675k | — | 1684k | — |
5/16/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 59.8 | — |
5/16/2019 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 50 | — |
5/16/2019 | Revisions: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, Orders | ||||
5/17/2019 | Leading Index | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
5/17/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97.2 | — | 97.2 | — |
5/17/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 112.3 | — |
5/17/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 87.4 | — |
5/17/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
5/17/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
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