May 15, 2019 Headlines

The bearish tone in risk markets resumed overnight, with geopolitical concerns and weaker economic data adding to the anxiousness surrounding U.S./China negotiations. Treasury yields are down 3-5 bps across the curve, with the 5-year yield at the lowest level since December 2017 (2.14%). At the time, the top-end of the fed funds target range was 1.25%. The U.S. State Department has ordered all non-emergency government officials to withdraw from Iraq. The directive did not provide any details as to what led to the order, but the general assumption is that it’s related to ongoing tensions with Iran. China released several economic reports overnight for April, and all were worse than expected. This is contributing to the risk-off tone in the market, but at the same time, weaker Chinese data may create greater urgency from Chinese officials to strike a trade deal. The U.S. retail sales report for April was also softer than expected, with the control group flat on the month versus expectations of a 0.3% gain. The control group, which excludes building materials, auto dealers, and gasoline receipts, is used in the GDP report.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
5/15/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.60%	2.70%	—
5/15/2019	Retail sales lock-up Canceled– Data Released Live
5/15/2019	Empire Manufacturing	8	17.8	10.1	—
5/15/2019	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.20%	-0.20%	1.60%	1.70%
5/15/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.70%	0.10%	1.20%	1.30%
5/15/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.30%	-0.20%	0.90%	1.10%
5/15/2019	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	0.00%	1.00%	1.10%
5/15/2019	Industrial Production MoM	0.00%	-0.50%	-0.10%	0.20%
5/15/2019	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.00%	-0.50%	0.00%	—
5/15/2019	Capacity Utilization	78.70%	77.90%	78.80%	78.50%
5/15/2019	NAHB Housing Market Index	64	—	63	—
5/15/2019	Business Inventories	0.00%	—	0.30%	—
5/15/2019	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$51.9b	—
5/15/2019	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	-$21.6b	—
5/16/2019	Revisions: Housing Starts & Building Permits
5/16/2019	Housing Starts	1209k	—	1139k	—
5/16/2019	Housing Starts MoM	6.20%	—	-0.30%	—
5/16/2019	Building Permits	1290k	—	1269k	1288k
5/16/2019	Building Permits MoM	0.20%	—	-1.70%	-0.20%
5/16/2019	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	9	—	8.5	—
5/16/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	—	228k	—
5/16/2019	Continuing Claims	1675k	—	1684k	—
5/16/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	59.8	—
5/16/2019	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	50	—
5/16/2019	Revisions: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, Orders
5/17/2019	Leading Index	0.20%	—	0.40%	—
5/17/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	97.2	—	97.2	—
5/17/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	112.3	—
5/17/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	87.4	—
5/17/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
5/17/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.30%	—

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