May 15, 2020 Headlines

A modest risk-off trade emerged overnight on fresh U.S./China concerns. Treasury yields are 1-4 bps lower across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.85% ahead of the open. An editor for the Global Times, who is considered to have very close ties to the Chinese government, tweeted that China may retaliate against U.S. companies Qualcomm, Cisco, and Apple. This threat was likely a response to a Reuters article reporting that the U.S. government was again moving to block microchip sales to Chinese telecom giant Huawei.

The April retail sales report was worse than expected, with ex-auto sales plunging 17.2% from the prior month, essentially twice as bad as expected. The control group fell 15.3% in April (-5% expected), which is important because it directly feeds into the GDP personal consumption calculation. As has been the case with most recent economic data points, the April numbers are a record low for the retail sales report (by a wide margin).  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/12/2020 NFIB Small Business Optimism 83 90.9 96.4
5/12/2020 CPI MoM -0.80% -0.80% -0.40%
5/12/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM -0.20% -0.40% -0.10%
5/12/2020 CPI YoY 0.40% 0.30% 1.50%
5/12/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.70% 1.40% 2.10%
5/12/2020 CPI Index NSA 256.489 256.389 258.115
5/12/2020 CPI Core Index SA 266.11 265.601 266.795
5/12/2020 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 7.50% 1.60%
5/12/2020 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 6.90% 0.70% 0.60%
5/12/2020 Mortgage Delinquencies 4.36% 3.77%
5/12/2020 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 0.73% 0.78%
5/12/2020 Monthly Budget Statement -$737.0b -$737.9b $160.3b
5/13/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.30% 0.10%
5/13/2020 PPI Final Demand MoM -0.50% -1.30% -0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM -0.10% -0.30% 0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM -0.10% -0.90% -0.20%
5/13/2020 PPI Final Demand YoY -0.40% -1.20% 0.70%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 0.80% 0.60% 1.40%
5/13/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 0.60% -0.30% 1.00%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index MoM -3.20% -2.60% -2.30% -2.40%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.50% -0.50% -0.10% -0.20%
5/14/2020 Import Price Index YoY -7.40% -6.80% -4.10% -4.20%
5/14/2020 Export Price Index MoM -2.30% -3.30% -1.60% -1.70%
5/14/2020 Export Price Index YoY -7.00% -3.60% -3.80%
5/14/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 2500k 2981k 3169k 3176k
5/14/2020 Continuing Claims 25120k 22833k 22647k 22377k
5/14/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 35.8 36.9
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Advance MoM -12.00% -16.40% -8.70% -8.30%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM -8.50% -17.20% -4.50% -4.00%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas -7.60% -16.20% -3.10% -2.60%
5/15/2020 Retail Sales Control Group -5.00% -15.30% 1.70% 3.10%
5/15/2020 Empire Manufacturing -60 -48.5 -78.2
5/15/2020 Industrial Production MoM -12.00% -5.40%
5/15/2020 Capacity Utilization 63.80% 72.70%
5/15/2020 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -14.60% -6.30%
5/15/2020 Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/15/2020 Business Inventories -0.20% -0.40%
5/15/2020 JOLTS Job Openings 5800 6882
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 68 71.8
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 62.8 74.3
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 60.2 70.1
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.00% 2.10%
5/15/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%
5/15/2020 Net Long-term TIC Flows $49.4b
5/15/2020 Total Net TIC Flows -$13.4b
5/15/2020 Fed To Release 2020 Financial Stability Report
5/15/2020 Revisions: Manufacturing Shipment, Inventories, Orders


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