May 15, 2020 Headlines

A modest risk-off trade emerged overnight on fresh U.S./China concerns. Treasury yields are 1-4 bps lower across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.85% ahead of the open. An editor for the Global Times, who is considered to have very close ties to the Chinese government, tweeted that China may retaliate against U.S. companies Qualcomm, Cisco, and Apple. This threat was likely a response to a Reuters article reporting that the U.S. government was again moving to block microchip sales to Chinese telecom giant Huawei.

The April retail sales report was worse than expected, with ex-auto sales plunging 17.2% from the prior month, essentially twice as bad as expected. The control group fell 15.3% in April (-5% expected), which is important because it directly feeds into the GDP personal consumption calculation. As has been the case with most recent economic data points, the April numbers are a record low for the retail sales report (by a wide margin).  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

5/12/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism8390.996.4
5/12/2020CPI MoM-0.80%-0.80%-0.40%
5/12/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.20%-0.40%-0.10%
5/12/2020CPI YoY0.40%0.30%1.50%
5/12/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.40%2.10%
5/12/2020CPI Index NSA256.489256.389258.115
5/12/2020CPI Core Index SA266.11265.601266.795
5/12/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY7.50%1.60%
5/12/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY6.90%0.70%0.60%
5/12/2020Mortgage Delinquencies4.36%3.77%
5/12/2020MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.73%0.78%
5/12/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$737.0b-$737.9b$160.3b
5/13/2020MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%0.10%
5/13/2020PPI Final Demand MoM-0.50%-1.30%-0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.10%-0.30%0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM-0.10%-0.90%-0.20%
5/13/2020PPI Final Demand YoY-0.40%-1.20%0.70%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY0.80%0.60%1.40%
5/13/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.60%-0.30%1.00%
5/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-3.20%-2.60%-2.30%-2.40%
5/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.50%-0.50%-0.10%-0.20%
5/14/2020Import Price Index YoY-7.40%-6.80%-4.10%-4.20%
5/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-2.30%-3.30%-1.60%-1.70%
5/14/2020Export Price Index YoY-7.00%-3.60%-3.80%
5/14/2020Initial Jobless Claims2500k2981k3169k3176k
5/14/2020Continuing Claims25120k22833k22647k22377k
5/14/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort35.836.9
5/15/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM-12.00%-16.40%-8.70%-8.30%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-8.50%-17.20%-4.50%-4.00%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-7.60%-16.20%-3.10%-2.60%
5/15/2020Retail Sales Control Group-5.00%-15.30%1.70%3.10%
5/15/2020Empire Manufacturing-60-48.5-78.2
5/15/2020Industrial Production MoM-12.00%-5.40%
5/15/2020Capacity Utilization63.80%72.70%
5/15/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-14.60%-6.30%
5/15/2020Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/15/2020Business Inventories-0.20%-0.40%
5/15/2020JOLTS Job Openings58006882
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment6871.8
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions62.874.3
5/15/2020U. of Mich. Expectations60.270.1
5/15/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.00%2.10%
5/15/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
5/15/2020Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.4b
5/15/2020Total Net TIC Flows-$13.4b
5/15/2020Fed To Release 2020 Financial Stability Report
5/15/2020Revisions: Manufacturing Shipment, Inventories, Orders


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