Treasury yields are modestly higher and the curve steeper following more hawkish commentary from Fed officials, as well as Treasury Secretary Yellen’s suggestion that debt ceiling talks are progressing. Additionally, the European Union lifted its forward inflation expectations amid more resilient economic data in the region. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by a deluge of Fedspeak, including appearances by four leaders today. Later this week, Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel discussion at a monetary policy research conference. There remains a strong disconnect between market pricing for Fed interest rate policy for the remainder of the year and Fed guidance. Fed funds futures are priced for nearly 75 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, while Fed officials maintain a more hawkish tone.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Actual | Prior | Revised |
05/15/23 | Empire Manufacturing | -31.8 | 10.8 | — |
05/15/23 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $71.0b | — |
05/15/23 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $28.0b | — |
05/16/23 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | — | -1.00% | -0.60% |
05/16/23 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | — | -0.80% | -0.40% |
05/16/23 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | — | -0.30% | — |
05/16/23 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | -0.30% | — |
05/16/23 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | -9.8 | — |
05/16/23 | Industrial Production MoM | — | 0.40% | — |
05/16/23 | Capacity Utilization | — | 79.80% | — |
05/16/23 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | — | -0.50% | — |
05/16/23 | Business Inventories | — | 0.20% | — |
05/16/23 | NAHB Housing Market Index | — | 45 | — |
05/17/23 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 6.30% | — |
05/17/23 | Housing Starts | — | 1420k | — |
05/17/23 | Building Permits | — | 1413k | 1430k |
05/17/23 | Housing Starts MoM | — | -0.80% | — |
05/17/23 | Building Permits MoM | — | -8.80% | -7.70% |
05/18/23 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | 264k | — |
05/18/23 | Continuing Claims | — | 1813k | — |
05/18/23 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | — | -31.3 | — |
05/18/23 | Existing Home Sales | — | 4.44m | — |
05/18/23 | Existing Home Sales MoM | — | -2.40% | — |
05/18/23 | Leading Index | — | -1.20% | — |
05/19/23 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey |
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