May 16, 2022 Headlines

The recent rally in Treasuries cooled overnight, and yields are up 5-7 basis points across the curve to start the day. Markets are digesting the most recent Fedspeak from yesterday afternoon. Fed Chair Powell made headlines when warned that getting inflation under control could cause some economic pain and that he couldn’t promise a soft landing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, considered one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, later made headlines when she characterized the recent tightening of financial conditions (lower equities, higher bond yields) as just a “good start.” At the same time, she expressed support for more 50 bps rate hikes and said 75 bps hikes are “not a primary consideration.” Powell’s assessment of risks to the economy amid the Fed’s tightening efforts should be fairly obvious at this point, but financial markets are clearly more sensitive to any guidance from central bank leaders.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

05/16/22Empire Manufacturing15-11.624.6
05/16/22Net Long-term TIC Flows$141.7b
05/16/22Total Net TIC Flows$162.6b
05/17/22Retail Sales Advance MoM1.00%0.50%0.70%
05/17/22Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%1.10%1.40%
05/17/22Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.70%0.20%0.70%
05/17/22Retail Sales Control Group0.80%-0.10%0.70%
05/17/22Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.90%
05/17/22Capacity Utilization78.50%78.30%
05/17/22Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%0.90%
05/17/22Business Inventories1.90%1.50%
05/17/22NAHB Housing Market Index7577
05/18/22MBA Mortgage Applications2.00%
05/18/22Housing Starts1760k1793k
05/18/22Housing Starts MoM-1.80%0.30%
05/18/22Building Permits1812k1873k1870k
05/18/22Building Permits MoM-3.10%0.40%0.30%
05/19/22Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook16.517.6
05/19/22Initial Jobless Claims200k203k
05/19/22Continuing Claims1330k1343k
05/19/22Existing Home Sales5.63m5.77m
05/19/22Existing Home Sales MoM-2.50%-2.70%
05/19/22Leading Index0.00%0.30%

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