May 16, 2022 Headlines

The recent rally in Treasuries cooled overnight, and yields are up 5-7 basis points across the curve to start the day. Markets are digesting the most recent Fedspeak from yesterday afternoon. Fed Chair Powell made headlines when warned that getting inflation under control could cause some economic pain and that he couldn’t promise a soft landing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, considered one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, later made headlines when she characterized the recent tightening of financial conditions (lower equities, higher bond yields) as just a “good start.” At the same time, she expressed support for more 50 bps rate hikes and said 75 bps hikes are “not a primary consideration.” Powell’s assessment of risks to the economy amid the Fed’s tightening efforts should be fairly obvious at this point, but financial markets are clearly more sensitive to any guidance from central bank leaders.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
05/16/22	Empire Manufacturing	15	-11.6	24.6	—
05/16/22	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$141.7b	—
05/16/22	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$162.6b	—
05/17/22	Retail Sales Advance MoM	1.00%	—	0.50%	0.70%
05/17/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.40%	—	1.10%	1.40%
05/17/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.70%	—	0.20%	0.70%
05/17/22	Retail Sales Control Group	0.80%	—	-0.10%	0.70%
05/17/22	Industrial Production MoM	0.50%	—	0.90%	—
05/17/22	Capacity Utilization	78.50%	—	78.30%	—
05/17/22	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.40%	—	0.90%	—
05/17/22	Business Inventories	1.90%	—	1.50%	—
05/17/22	NAHB Housing Market Index	75	—	77	—
05/18/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	2.00%	—
05/18/22	Housing Starts	1760k	—	1793k	—
05/18/22	Housing Starts MoM	-1.80%	—	0.30%	—
05/18/22	Building Permits	1812k	—	1873k	1870k
05/18/22	Building Permits MoM	-3.10%	—	0.40%	0.30%
05/19/22	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	16.5	—	17.6	—
05/19/22	Initial Jobless Claims	200k	—	203k	—
05/19/22	Continuing Claims	1330k	—	1343k	—
05/19/22	Existing Home Sales	5.63m	—	5.77m	—
05/19/22	Existing Home Sales MoM	-2.50%	—	-2.70%	—
05/19/22	Leading Index	0.00%	—	0.30%	—

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