May 16, 2022 Headlines

The recent rally in Treasuries cooled overnight, and yields are up 5-7 basis points across the curve to start the day. Markets are digesting the most recent Fedspeak from yesterday afternoon. Fed Chair Powell made headlines when warned that getting inflation under control could cause some economic pain and that he couldn’t promise a soft landing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, considered one of the most dovish members of the FOMC, later made headlines when she characterized the recent tightening of financial conditions (lower equities, higher bond yields) as just a “good start.” At the same time, she expressed support for more 50 bps rate hikes and said 75 bps hikes are “not a primary consideration.” Powell’s assessment of risks to the economy amid the Fed’s tightening efforts should be fairly obvious at this point, but financial markets are clearly more sensitive to any guidance from central bank leaders.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
05/16/22 Empire Manufacturing 15 -11.6 24.6
05/16/22 Net Long-term TIC Flows $141.7b
05/16/22 Total Net TIC Flows $162.6b
05/17/22 Retail Sales Advance MoM 1.00% 0.50% 0.70%
05/17/22 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% 1.10% 1.40%
05/17/22 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.70% 0.20% 0.70%
05/17/22 Retail Sales Control Group 0.80% -0.10% 0.70%
05/17/22 Industrial Production MoM 0.50% 0.90%
05/17/22 Capacity Utilization 78.50% 78.30%
05/17/22 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.40% 0.90%
05/17/22 Business Inventories 1.90% 1.50%
05/17/22 NAHB Housing Market Index 75 77
05/18/22 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.00%
05/18/22 Housing Starts 1760k 1793k
05/18/22 Housing Starts MoM -1.80% 0.30%
05/18/22 Building Permits 1812k 1873k 1870k
05/18/22 Building Permits MoM -3.10% 0.40% 0.30%
05/19/22 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 16.5 17.6
05/19/22 Initial Jobless Claims 200k 203k
05/19/22 Continuing Claims 1330k 1343k
05/19/22 Existing Home Sales 5.63m 5.77m
05/19/22 Existing Home Sales MoM -2.50% -2.70%
05/19/22 Leading Index 0.00% 0.30%

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