May 17, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed to start the day following a relatively quiet overnight session. S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% approximately 30 minutes ahead of the open, and the KRE regional bank ETF is up 2% in pre-market trading. The MBA mortgage activity index fell 5.7% last week, led by a 7.7% decline in refi applications and a 4.8% decline in new purchase applications. The average conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 9 basis points to 6.57% according to the MBA survey, the highest since early March (pre-bank failures). On the debt ceiling front, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy expressed confidence that there will be no debt default, as he and other Congressional leaders continue to negotiate a deal to raise the limit before the Treasury runs out of cash. On that note, the Treasury General Account fell $52 billion on Monday, leaving just $87 billion until a deal is struck. This would seem to make a June x-date an even higher probability.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/17/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.70% 6.30%
5/17/2023 Revisions: Housing Starts / Permits
5/17/2023 Housing Starts 1400k 1401k 1420k 1371k
5/17/2023 Building Permits 1430k 1416k 1413k 1437k
5/17/2023 Housing Starts MoM -1.40% 2.20% -0.80% -4.50%
5/17/2023 Building Permits MoM 0.00% -1.50% -8.80% -3.00%
5/18/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 253k 264k
5/18/2023 Continuing Claims 1819k 1813k
5/18/2023 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -20 -31.3
5/18/2023 Existing Home Sales 4.30m 4.44m
5/18/2023 Existing Home Sales MoM -3.20% -2.40%
5/18/2023 Leading Index -0.60% -1.20%
5/19/2023 Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/23/2023 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity -22.8
5/23/2023 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 50.2
5/23/2023 S&P Global US Services PMI 53.6
5/23/2023 S&P Global US Composite PMI 53.4
5/23/2023 New Home Sales 660k 683k
5/23/2023 New Home Sales MoM -3.40% 9.60%
5/23/2023 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -10
5/23/2023 Richmond Fed Business Conditions -27
5/24/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.70%
5/24/2023 FOMC Meeting Minutes

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