It was another quiet overnight trading session, with several markets in Asia and Europe closed for holiday. Both Treasuries and S&P 500 futures are effectively flat versus yesterday’s close. The White House announced permanent exemptions from the steel/aluminum tariffs for some countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Australia), and the exemptions for NAFTA partners were extended for another 30 days. The markets haven’t really responded to the news given the larger focus on China/U.S. trade relations at the moment, and thus far, the ongoing negotiations between the two countries have produced no positive breakthroughs.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event   Survey Actual Prior Revised
04/30/2018 Personal Income Mar 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 0.30%
04/30/2018 Personal Spending Mar 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00%
04/30/2018 Real Personal Spending Mar 0.50% 0.40% 0.00% -0.20%
04/30/2018 PCE Deflator MoM Mar 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
04/30/2018 PCE Deflator YoY Mar 2.00% 2.00% 1.80% 1.70%
04/30/2018 PCE Core MoM Mar 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
04/30/2018 PCE Core YoY Mar 1.90% 1.90% 1.60%
04/30/2018 Chicago Purchasing Manager Apr 58 57.6 57.4
04/30/2018 Pending Home Sales MoM Mar 0.70% 0.40% 3.10% 2.80%
04/30/2018 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Mar -4.40% -4.40% -4.70%
04/30/2018 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Apr 23 21.8 21.4 22.8
05/01/2018 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Apr F 56.5 56.5
05/01/2018 Construction Spending MoM Mar 0.50% 0.10%
05/01/2018 ISM Manufacturing Apr 58.5 59.3
05/01/2018 ISM Employment Apr 57.3
05/01/2018 ISM Prices Paid Apr 78.5 78.1
05/01/2018 ISM New Orders Apr 61.9
05/01/2018 Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales Apr 13.30m 13.42m
05/01/2018 Wards Total Vehicle Sales Apr 17.10m 17.40m
05/02/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications 27-Apr -0.20%
05/02/2018 ADP Employment Change Apr 198k 241k
05/02/2018 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 2-May 1.75% 1.75%
05/02/2018 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 2-May 1.50% 1.50%
05/03/2018 Challenger Job Cuts YoY Apr 39.40%
05/03/2018 Nonfarm Productivity 1Q P 0.90% 0.00%
05/03/2018 Unit Labor Costs 1Q P 3.00% 2.50%
05/03/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 28-Apr 225k 209k
05/03/2018 Continuing Claims 21-Apr 1835k 1837k
05/03/2018 Trade Balance Mar -$50.0b -$57.6b
05/03/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 29-Apr 57.5
05/03/2018 Markit US Services PMI Apr F 54.4 54.4
05/03/2018 Markit US Composite PMI Apr F 54.8
05/03/2018 ISM Non-Manf. Composite Apr 58 58.8
05/03/2018 Durable Goods Orders Mar F 2.60%
05/03/2018 Durables Ex Transportation Mar F 0.00%
05/03/2018 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Mar F -0.10%
05/03/2018 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Mar F -0.70%
05/03/2018 Factory Orders Mar 1.40% 1.20%
05/03/2018 Factory Orders Ex Trans Mar 0.10%
05/04/2018 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 191k 103k
05/04/2018 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision Apr -50k
05/04/2018 Change in Private Payrolls Apr 190k 102k
05/04/2018 Change in Manufact. Payrolls Apr 20k 22k
05/04/2018 Unemployment Rate Apr 4.00% 4.10%
05/04/2018 Underemployment Rate Apr 8.00%
05/04/2018 Average Hourly Earnings MoM Apr 0.20% 0.30%
05/04/2018 Average Hourly Earnings YoY Apr 2.70% 2.70%
05/04/2018 Average Weekly Hours All Employees Apr 34.5 34.5
05/04/2018 Labor Force Participation Rate Apr 62.90% 62.90%
05/07/2018 Consumer Credit Mar $16.000b $10.601b
05/07/2018 Mortgage Delinquencies 1Q 5.17%
05/07/2018 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 1Q 1.19%
05/08/2018 NFIB Small Business Optimism Apr 104.7
05/08/2018 JOLTS Job Openings Mar 6052