May 2, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices are slightly lower to start the day following a quiet overnight session with several major markets in Asia are closed for holiday.  Yesterday’s FOMC meeting didn’t provide the dovish signals some were expecting. More specifically, Fed Chair Powell was largely dismissive of disinflation concerns during his press conference, using the word “transitory” multiple times to describe the recent softness in core prices. He noted diminished downside risks to growth given progress in both U.S./China talks and lower odds of a hard Brexit landing. “We don’t see a strong case for moving (rates) in either direction,” said Powell. In other words, Fed leadership is content with leaving rate policy on hold until growth and inflation trends change significantly. The FOMC did decide to implement another technical adjustment to the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate. IOER is now 2.35%, 15 bps below the top end of the target range.  Powell effectively shrugged off the move as a “small technical adjustment,” and as discussed in Tuesday’s commentary, these adjustments have previously occurred when the effective fed funds rate has traded closer to the top end of the target range than the Fed prefers. 

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/29/19BEA Releases March income/spending (includes Feb. outlays)
4/29/19Personal Income0.40%0.10%0.20%
4/29/19Personal Spending0.30%0.10%0.10%0.30%
4/29/19Real Personal Spending0.00%0.10%0.40%
4/29/19Personal Spending0.70%0.90%0.10%
4/29/19PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%-0.10%0.00%
4/29/19Real Personal Spending0.50%0.70%0.00%
4/29/19PCE Deflator YoY1.30%1.40%
4/29/19PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.20%0.10%
4/29/19PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
4/29/19PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.50%1.30%
4/29/19PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.80%
4/29/19PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.00%0.10%
4/29/19PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.60%1.70%
4/29/19Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1028.36.9
4/29/19Revisions: Dallas Fed Manufacturing
4/30/19Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%0.70%
4/30/19Revisions: Employment Cost Index
4/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%0.20%0.11%0.09%
4/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.95%3.00%3.58%3.51%
4/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.08212.7212.41212.27
4/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.90%4.01%4.26%4.22%
4/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.04204.71204.62
4/30/19MNI Chicago PMI58.552.658.7
4/30/19Pending Home Sales MoM1.50%3.80%-1.00%
4/30/19Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.00%-3.20%-5.00%
4/30/19Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126.8129.2124.1124.2
4/30/19Conf. Board Present Situation168.3160.6163
4/30/19Conf. Board Expectations10399.898.3
5/1/19MBA Mortgage Applications-4.30%-7.30%
5/1/19ADP Employment Change180k275k129k151k
5/1/19Markit US Manufacturing PMI52.452.652.4
5/1/19ISM Manufacturing5552.855.3
5/1/19ISM Employment52.457.5
5/1/19ISM Prices Paid555054.3
5/1/19ISM New Orders51.757.4
5/1/19Construction Spending MoM0.00%-0.90%1.00%0.70%
5/1/19FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.50%2.50%2.50%
5/1/19FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.25%2.25%2.25%
5/1/19Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.40%2.35%2.40%
5/1/19Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m16.40m17.50m
5/2/19Challenger Job Cuts YoY10.90%0.40%
5/2/19Initial Jobless Claims215k230k230k
5/2/19Continuing Claims1660k1671k1655k1654k
5/2/19Nonfarm Productivity2.20%3.60%1.90%1.30%
5/2/19Unit Labor Costs1.50%-0.90%2.00%2.50%
5/2/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.8
5/2/19Factory Orders1.60%-0.50%
5/2/19Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%
5/2/19Durable Goods Orders2.70%
5/2/19Durables Ex Transportation0.40%
5/2/19Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.30%
5/2/19Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.20%
5/3/19Change in Nonfarm Payrolls190k196k
5/3/19Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
5/3/19Change in Private Payrolls185k182k
5/3/19Change in Manufact. Payrolls10k-6k
5/3/19Unemployment Rate3.80%3.80%
5/3/19Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%
5/3/19Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.30%3.20%
5/3/19Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
5/3/19Labor Force Participation Rate63.00%63.00%
5/3/19Underemployment Rate7.30%
5/3/19Advance Goods Trade Balance-$73.0b-$70.9b
5/3/19Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.20%
5/3/19Retail Inventories MoM0.10%0.30%
5/3/19Markit US Services PMI52.952.9
5/3/19Markit US Composite PMI52.8
5/3/19ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5756.1


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