Treasury prices are slightly lower to start the day following a quiet overnight session with several major markets in Asia are closed for holiday. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting didn’t provide the dovish signals some were expecting. More specifically, Fed Chair Powell was largely dismissive of disinflation concerns during his press conference, using the word “transitory” multiple times to describe the recent softness in core prices. He noted diminished downside risks to growth given progress in both U.S./China talks and lower odds of a hard Brexit landing. “We don’t see a strong case for moving (rates) in either direction,” said Powell. In other words, Fed leadership is content with leaving rate policy on hold until growth and inflation trends change significantly. The FOMC did decide to implement another technical adjustment to the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate. IOER is now 2.35%, 15 bps below the top end of the target range. Powell effectively shrugged off the move as a “small technical adjustment,” and as discussed in Tuesday’s commentary, these adjustments have previously occurred when the effective fed funds rate has traded closer to the top end of the target range than the Fed prefers.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/29/19 | BEA Releases March income/spending (includes Feb. outlays) | ||||
| 4/29/19 | Personal Income | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 4/29/19 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| 4/29/19 | Real Personal Spending | — | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.40% |
| 4/29/19 | Personal Spending | 0.70% | 0.90% | — | 0.10% |
| 4/29/19 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 4/29/19 | Real Personal Spending | 0.50% | 0.70% | — | 0.00% |
| 4/29/19 | PCE Deflator YoY | — | 1.30% | 1.40% | — |
| 4/29/19 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 4/29/19 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 4/29/19 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.60% | 1.50% | — | 1.30% |
| 4/29/19 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | — | 1.70% | 1.80% | — |
| 4/29/19 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | — | 0.10% |
| 4/29/19 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.70% | 1.60% | — | 1.70% |
| 4/29/19 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 10 | 2 | 8.3 | 6.9 |
| 4/29/19 | Revisions: Dallas Fed Manufacturing | ||||
| 4/30/19 | Employment Cost Index | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.70% | — |
| 4/30/19 | Revisions: Employment Cost Index | ||||
| 4/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.11% | 0.09% |
| 4/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 2.95% | 3.00% | 3.58% | 3.51% |
| 4/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 213.08 | 212.7 | 212.41 | 212.27 |
| 4/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 3.90% | 4.01% | 4.26% | 4.22% |
| 4/30/19 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 205.04 | 204.71 | 204.62 |
| 4/30/19 | MNI Chicago PMI | 58.5 | 52.6 | 58.7 | — |
| 4/30/19 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.50% | 3.80% | -1.00% | — |
| 4/30/19 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -4.00% | -3.20% | -5.00% | — |
| 4/30/19 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 126.8 | 129.2 | 124.1 | 124.2 |
| 4/30/19 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 168.3 | 160.6 | 163 |
| 4/30/19 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 103 | 99.8 | 98.3 |
| 5/1/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.30% | -7.30% | — |
| 5/1/19 | ADP Employment Change | 180k | 275k | 129k | 151k |
| 5/1/19 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | 52.6 | 52.4 | — |
| 5/1/19 | ISM Manufacturing | 55 | 52.8 | 55.3 | — |
| 5/1/19 | ISM Employment | — | 52.4 | 57.5 | — |
| 5/1/19 | ISM Prices Paid | 55 | 50 | 54.3 | — |
| 5/1/19 | ISM New Orders | — | 51.7 | 57.4 | — |
| 5/1/19 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | -0.90% | 1.00% | 0.70% |
| 5/1/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | — |
| 5/1/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | — |
| 5/1/19 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 2.40% | 2.35% | 2.40% | — |
| 5/1/19 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.00m | 16.40m | 17.50m | — |
| 5/2/19 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 10.90% | 0.40% | — |
| 5/2/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | 230k | 230k | — |
| 5/2/19 | Continuing Claims | 1660k | 1671k | 1655k | 1654k |
| 5/2/19 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.20% | 3.60% | 1.90% | 1.30% |
| 5/2/19 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.50% | -0.90% | 2.00% | 2.50% |
| 5/2/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.8 | — |
| 5/2/19 | Factory Orders | 1.60% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 5/2/19 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/2/19 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 5/2/19 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/2/19 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.30% | — |
| 5/2/19 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 5/3/19 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 190k | — | 196k | — |
| 5/3/19 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 5/3/19 | Change in Private Payrolls | 185k | — | 182k | — |
| 5/3/19 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 10k | — | -6k | — |
| 5/3/19 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/3/19 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/3/19 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 5/3/19 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 5/3/19 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 63.00% | — | 63.00% | — |
| 5/3/19 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.30% | — |
| 5/3/19 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$73.0b | — | -$70.9b | — |
| 5/3/19 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/3/19 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/3/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 52.9 | — | 52.9 | — |
| 5/3/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.8 | — |
| 5/3/19 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 57 | — | 56.1 | — |
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