Treasuries rallied overnight and the curve is lower and flatter by 3 to 5 basis points following a sharp risk-off trade sparked by a variety of new headlines. First, trade tensions between China and the US have seemed to picked back up with President Trump stating that he was unhappy with the deals that had been made. Second, currency concerns in Turkey took off as investors lost faith in the country’s central bank to stem the losses that had already been suffered; and third, renewed concerns around Italy’s new populist government took hold. On the docket for today, is the Fed’s release of their minutes from the May 2nd FOMC meeting.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
05/21 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.3 0.34 0.1 0.32
05/22 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 10 16 -3
05/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -2.60% -2.70%
05/23 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 56.5 56.5
05/23 Markit US Services PMI 55 54.6
05/23 Markit US Composite PMI 54.9
05/23 New Home Sales 680k 694k
05/23 New Home Sales MoM -2.10% 4.00%
05/23 Revisions: New Homes        
05/23 FOMC Meeting Minutes
05/24 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 222k
05/24 Continuing Claims 1746k 1707k
05/24 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 0.70% 1.60%
05/24 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.60% 0.60%
05/24 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 54.6
05/24 Existing Home Sales 5.55m 5.60m
05/24 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.90% 1.10%
05/24 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 20 26
05/25 Durable Goods Orders -1.30% 2.60%
05/25 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% 0.10%
05/25 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.70% -0.40%
05/25 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.40% -0.80%
05/25 Revisions: Wholesale Trade
05/25 Revisions: Retail Sales
05/25 U. of Mich. Sentiment 98.8 98.8
05/25 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 98.6 113.3
05/25 U. of Mich. Expectations 89.5
05/25 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.80%
05/25 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%