Treasuries rallied overnight and the curve is lower and flatter by 3 to 5 basis points following a sharp risk-off trade sparked by a variety of new headlines. First, trade tensions between China and the US have seemed to picked back up with President Trump stating that he was unhappy with the deals that had been made. Second, currency concerns in Turkey took off as investors lost faith in the country’s central bank to stem the losses that had already been suffered; and third, renewed concerns around Italy’s new populist government took hold. On the docket for today, is the Fed’s release of their minutes from the May 2nd FOMC meeting.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
05/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.30.340.10.32
05/22Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1016-3
05/23MBA Mortgage Applications-2.60%-2.70%
05/23Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.556.5
05/23Markit US Services PMI5554.6
05/23Markit US Composite PMI54.9
05/23New Home Sales680k694k
05/23New Home Sales MoM-2.10%4.00%
05/23Revisions: New Homes    
05/23FOMC Meeting Minutes
05/24Initial Jobless Claims220k222k
05/24Continuing Claims1746k1707k
05/24House Price Purchase Index QoQ0.70%1.60%
05/24FHFA House Price Index MoM0.60%0.60%
05/24Bloomberg Consumer Comfort54.6
05/24Existing Home Sales5.55m5.60m
05/24Existing Home Sales MoM-0.90%1.10%
05/24Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2026
05/25Durable Goods Orders-1.30%2.60%
05/25Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.10%
05/25Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.70%-0.40%
05/25Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%-0.80%
05/25Revisions: Wholesale Trade
05/25Revisions: Retail Sales
05/25U. of Mich. Sentiment98.898.8
05/25U. of Mich. Current Conditions98.6113.3
05/25U. of Mich. Expectations89.5
05/25U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
05/25U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%