May 25, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries and U.S. equity futures are little changed to start the day following light trading overnight. A Bloomberg article suggests that moderate Democrats in both the House and Senate are having reservations about President Biden’s proposed tax hikes ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Three separate Fed leaders, including Lael Brainard, reiterated the company line that supply chain bottlenecks will likely fuel transitory inflation in the coming months. On the data front, the Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 1.6% m/m in March (1.3% expected), and on a year-over-year basis, the index was up 13.3% versus expectations of a 12.5% gain, the highest since December 2013.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
05/24/21 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 1.2 0.24 1.71 —
05/25/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.00% 1.40% 0.90% 1.10%
05/25/21 House Price Purchase Index QoQ — 3.50% 3.80% 3.90%
05/25/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.30% 1.60% 1.17% 1.23%
05/25/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 12.55% 13.27% 11.94% 12.00%
05/25/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 13.19% 11.97% 12.04%
05/25/21 New Home Sales 950k — 1021k —
05/25/21 New Home Sales MoM -7.00% — 20.70% —
05/25/21 Revisions: New Home Sales
05/25/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 118.8 — 121.7 —
05/25/21 Conf. Board Present Situation — — 139.6 —
05/25/21 Conf. Board Expectations — — 109.8 —
05/25/21 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 19 — 17 —
05/26/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 1.20% —
05/27/21 Durable Goods Orders 0.80% — 0.80% —
05/27/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.80% — 1.90% —
05/27/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.00% — 1.20% —
05/27/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.80% — 1.60% —
05/27/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 6.50% — 6.40% —
05/27/21 Initial Jobless Claims 425k — 444k —
05/27/21 Personal Consumption 11.00% — 10.70% —
05/27/21 Continuing Claims 3680k — 3751k —
05/27/21 GDP Price Index 4.10% — 4.10% —
05/27/21 Core PCE QoQ 2.30% — 2.30% —
05/27/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 55.3 —
05/27/21 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% — 1.90% —
05/27/21 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY — — 25.30% —
05/27/21 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 30 — 31 —
05/28/21 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$92.0b — -$90.6b —
05/28/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.70% — 1.30% —
05/28/21 Retail Inventories MoM -2.00% — -1.40% —
05/28/21 Personal Income -14.30% — 21.10% —
05/28/21 Personal Spending 0.50% — 4.20% —
05/28/21 Real Personal Spending 0.20% — 3.60% —
05/28/21 PCE Deflator MoM 0.60% — 0.50% —
05/28/21 PCE Deflator YoY 3.50% — 2.30% —
05/28/21 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.60% — 0.40% —
05/28/21 PCE Core Deflator YoY 2.90% — 1.80% —
05/28/21 MNI Chicago PMI 68 — 72.1 —
05/28/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 83 — 82.8 —
05/28/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 90.8 —
05/28/21 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 77.6 —
05/28/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 4.60% —
05/28/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 3.10% —

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