May 25, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries and U.S. equity futures are little changed to start the day following light trading overnight. A Bloomberg article suggests that moderate Democrats in both the House and Senate are having reservations about President Biden’s proposed tax hikes ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Three separate Fed leaders, including Lael Brainard, reiterated the company line that supply chain bottlenecks will likely fuel transitory inflation in the coming months. On the data front, the Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 1.6% m/m in March (1.3% expected), and on a year-over-year basis, the index was up 13.3% versus expectations of a 12.5% gain, the highest since December 2013.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

05/24/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index1.20.241.71
05/25/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.00%1.40%0.90%1.10%
05/25/21House Price Purchase Index QoQ3.50%3.80%3.90%
05/25/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.30%1.60%1.17%1.23%
05/25/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA12.55%13.27%11.94%12.00%
05/25/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA13.19%11.97%12.04%
05/25/21New Home Sales950k1021k
05/25/21New Home Sales MoM-7.00%20.70%
05/25/21Revisions: New Home Sales
05/25/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence118.8121.7
05/25/21Conf. Board Present Situation139.6
05/25/21Conf. Board Expectations109.8
05/25/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1917
05/26/21MBA Mortgage Applications1.20%
05/27/21Durable Goods Orders0.80%0.80%
05/27/21Durables Ex Transportation0.80%1.90%
05/27/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%1.20%
05/27/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%1.60%
05/27/21GDP Annualized QoQ6.50%6.40%
05/27/21Initial Jobless Claims425k444k
05/27/21Personal Consumption11.00%10.70%
05/27/21Continuing Claims3680k3751k
05/27/21GDP Price Index4.10%4.10%
05/27/21Core PCE QoQ2.30%2.30%
05/27/21Langer Consumer Comfort55.3
05/27/21Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%1.90%
05/27/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY25.30%
05/27/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity3031
05/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$92.0b-$90.6b
05/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%1.30%
05/28/21Retail Inventories MoM-2.00%-1.40%
05/28/21Personal Income-14.30%21.10%
05/28/21Personal Spending0.50%4.20%
05/28/21Real Personal Spending0.20%3.60%
05/28/21PCE Deflator MoM0.60%0.50%
05/28/21PCE Deflator YoY3.50%2.30%
05/28/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.60%0.40%
05/28/21PCE Core Deflator YoY2.90%1.80%
05/28/21MNI Chicago PMI6872.1
05/28/21U. of Mich. Sentiment8382.8
05/28/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions90.8
05/28/21U. of Mich. Expectations77.6
05/28/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%
05/28/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.10%

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