May 25, 2022 Headlines

It’s a relatively quiet morning as market focus shifts to this afternoon’s release of the May 4 FOMC minutes. Treasury yields are down 1-2 basis points following yesterday’s rally that sent the 2-year note yield 14 bps lower. For the May 4 minutes, market participants will be looking for more insight on a recent divide (somewhat) regarding what the Fed should do when the fed funds rate gets to 2%. Over the last two weeks, Chair Powell has delivered more hawkish remarks, reiterating that inflation is “much too high” that the Fed will continue to tighten policy even if it is “painful” from an economic perspective. However, earlier this week, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested it may be prudent to pause in September after consecutive 50 bps rate hikes at the June and July meeting. If there is no evidence of broader support for Bostic’s position within the FOMC, the minutes will likely be perceived as more hawkish.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

5/25/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-1.20%-11.00%
5/25/2022Durable Goods Orders0.60%0.40%1.10%0.60%
5/25/2022Durables Ex Transportation0.60%0.30%1.40%1.10%
5/25/2022Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.30%1.30%1.10%
5/25/2022Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.80%0.40%0.20%
5/25/2022FOMC Meeting Minutes
5/26/2022GDP Annualized QoQ-1.30%-1.40%
5/26/2022Personal Consumption2.80%2.70%
5/26/2022GDP Price Index8.00%8.00%
5/26/2022Core PCE QoQ5.20%5.20%
5/26/2022Initial Jobless Claims215k218k
5/26/2022Continuing Claims1310k1317k
5/26/2022Pending Home Sales MoM-2.00%-1.20%
5/26/2022Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-8.00%-8.90%
5/26/2022Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1825
5/27/2022Advance Goods Trade Balance-$114.8b-$125.3b-$127.1b
5/27/2022Wholesale Inventories MoM1.90%2.30%
5/27/2022Personal Income0.50%0.50%
5/27/2022Personal Spending0.70%1.10%
5/27/2022Real Personal Spending0.70%0.20%
5/27/2022Retail Inventories MoM2.00%2.00%
5/27/2022PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.90%
5/27/2022PCE Deflator YoY6.20%6.60%
5/27/2022PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%
5/27/2022PCE Core Deflator YoY4.90%5.20%
5/27/2022U. of Mich. Sentiment59.159.1
5/27/2022U. of Mich. Current Conditions63.6
5/27/2022U. of Mich. Expectations56.3
5/27/2022U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.40%
5/27/2022U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%


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