It’s a relatively quiet morning as market focus shifts to this afternoon’s release of the May 4 FOMC minutes. Treasury yields are down 1-2 basis points following yesterday’s rally that sent the 2-year note yield 14 bps lower. For the May 4 minutes, market participants will be looking for more insight on a recent divide (somewhat) regarding what the Fed should do when the fed funds rate gets to 2%. Over the last two weeks, Chair Powell has delivered more hawkish remarks, reiterating that inflation is “much too high” that the Fed will continue to tighten policy even if it is “painful” from an economic perspective. However, earlier this week, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested it may be prudent to pause in September after consecutive 50 bps rate hikes at the June and July meeting. If there is no evidence of broader support for Bostic’s position within the FOMC, the minutes will likely be perceived as more hawkish.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/25/2022 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.20% | -11.00% | — |
| 5/25/2022 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.60% | 0.40% | 1.10% | 0.60% |
| 5/25/2022 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.60% | 0.30% | 1.40% | 1.10% |
| 5/25/2022 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | 0.30% | 1.30% | 1.10% |
| 5/25/2022 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| 5/25/2022 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 5/26/2022 | GDP Annualized QoQ | -1.30% | — | -1.40% | — |
| 5/26/2022 | Personal Consumption | 2.80% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 5/26/2022 | GDP Price Index | 8.00% | — | 8.00% | — |
| 5/26/2022 | Core PCE QoQ | 5.20% | — | 5.20% | — |
| 5/26/2022 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 218k | — |
| 5/26/2022 | Continuing Claims | 1310k | — | 1317k | — |
| 5/26/2022 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -2.00% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 5/26/2022 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -8.00% | — | -8.90% | — |
| 5/26/2022 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 18 | — | 25 | — |
| 5/27/2022 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$114.8b | — | -$125.3b | -$127.1b |
| 5/27/2022 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.90% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 5/27/2022 | Personal Income | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/27/2022 | Personal Spending | 0.70% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/27/2022 | Real Personal Spending | 0.70% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/27/2022 | Retail Inventories MoM | 2.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 5/27/2022 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/27/2022 | PCE Deflator YoY | 6.20% | — | 6.60% | — |
| 5/27/2022 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/27/2022 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 4.90% | — | 5.20% | — |
| 5/27/2022 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 59.1 | — | 59.1 | — |
| 5/27/2022 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 63.6 | — |
| 5/27/2022 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 56.3 | — |
| 5/27/2022 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 5.40% | — |
| 5/27/2022 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
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