May 26, 2021 Headlines

US Treasuries are lower this morning ahead of today’s $61 billion 5-year auction. Overnight comments from Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida reiterated that officials view price pressures in the US as transitory. However, Clarida added a statement that Federal Reserve members may be ready to discuss how to taper asset purchases in “upcoming meetings”. The only release on the economic calendar today is the MBA Mortgage Application Index which fell 4.2%. Total refinances were down 7.2% versus the prior week as the average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 3.18%. Tomorrow will provide more data points with the announcement of jobless claims, GDP, durable goods, and pending home sales.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/24/2021 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 1.2 0.24 1.71 —
5/25/2021 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.00% 1.40% 0.90% 1.10%
5/25/2021 House Price Purchase Index QoQ — 3.50% 3.80% 3.90%
5/25/2021 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.30% 1.60% 1.17% 1.23%
5/25/2021 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 12.55% 13.27% 11.94% 12.00%
5/25/2021 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 13.19% 11.97% 12.04%
5/25/2021 New Home Sales 950k 863k 1021k 917k
5/25/2021 New Home Sales MoM -7.00% -5.90% 20.70% 7.40%
5/25/2021 Revisions: New Home Sales
5/25/2021 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 118.8 117.2 121.7 117.5
5/25/2021 Conf. Board Present Situation — 144.3 139.6 131.9
5/25/2021 Conf. Board Expectations — 99.1 109.8 107.9
5/25/2021 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 19 18 17 —
5/26/2021 MBA Mortgage Applications — -4.20% 1.20% —
5/27/2021 Durable Goods Orders 0.80% — 0.80% 1.00%
5/27/2021 Durables Ex Transportation 0.80% — 1.90% 2.30%
5/27/2021 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.00% — 1.20% 1.00%
5/27/2021 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.80% — 1.60% 1.30%
5/27/2021 Initial Jobless Claims 425k — 444k —
5/27/2021 Continuing Claims 3680k — 3751k —
5/27/2021 GDP Annualized QoQ 6.50% — 6.40% —
5/27/2021 GDP Price Index 4.10% — 4.10% —
5/27/2021 Personal Consumption 11.00% — 10.70% —
5/27/2021 Core PCE QoQ 2.30% — 2.30% —
5/27/2021 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 55.3 —
5/27/2021 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% — 1.90% —
5/27/2021 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY — — 25.30% —
5/27/2021 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 30 — 31 —
5/28/2021 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$92.0b — -$90.6b —
5/28/2021 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.70% — 1.30% —
5/28/2021 Retail Inventories MoM -2.00% — -1.40% —
5/28/2021 Personal Income -14.30% — 21.10% —
5/28/2021 Personal Spending 0.50% — 4.20% —
5/28/2021 Real Personal Spending 0.20% — 3.60% —
5/28/2021 PCE Deflator MoM 0.60% — 0.50% —
5/28/2021 PCE Deflator YoY 3.50% — 2.30% —
5/28/2021 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.60% — 0.40% —
5/28/2021 PCE Core Deflator YoY 2.90% — 1.80% —
5/28/2021 MNI Chicago PMI 68 — 72.1 —
5/28/2021 U. of Mich. Sentiment 83 — 82.8 —
5/28/2021 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 90.8 —
5/28/2021 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 77.6 —
5/28/2021 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 4.60% —
5/28/2021 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 3.10% —

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