May 26, 2022 Headlines

Short and intermediate Treasury yields are 1-3 basis points lower today, and US equity futures are pointing to a continuation of yesterday’s post-minutes rally. The minutes of the May 4 FOMC meeting reinforced the expectation of 50 bps rate hikes at both the June and July meetings; however, there was some nod to the idea of pausing rate hikes later this year. “Many participants” judged that by frontloading the removal of policy accommodation, the FOMC would be “well positioned later this year to assess the effects of policy firming.” As we discussed earlier this week, Atlanta Fed President had expressed support for the idea of a September pause after consecutive 50 bps rate hikes at the prior three meetings, and idea that “many” committee members favor a potential assessment period fueled a rally in risk markets yesterday afternoon. For bonds, the price action appeared relatively healthy. There was no major reaction in either direction, which is the antithesis of the typically volatile pricing patterns we’ve seen this year around focus events like yesterday’s minutes. Next up will be the April income, spending, and PCE report released tomorrow morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
05/23/22	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.5	0.47	0.44	0.36
05/24/22	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	57.7	57.5	59.2	—
05/24/22	S&P Global US Services PMI	55.2	53.5	55.6	—
05/24/22	S&P Global US Composite PMI	55.7	53.8	56	—
05/24/22	Revisions: New Home Sales
05/24/22	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	10	-9	14	—
05/24/22	New Home Sales	748k	591k	763k	709k
05/24/22	New Home Sales MoM	-2.00%	-16.60%	-8.60%	-10.50%
05/25/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.20%	-11.00%	—
05/25/22	Durable Goods Orders	0.60%	0.40%	1.10%	0.60%
05/25/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.60%	0.30%	1.40%	1.10%
05/25/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	0.30%	1.30%	1.10%
05/25/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	0.80%	0.40%	0.20%
05/25/22	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
05/26/22	GDP Annualized QoQ	-1.30%	-1.50%	-1.40%	—
05/26/22	Personal Consumption	2.80%	3.10%	2.70%	—
05/26/22	GDP Price Index	8.00%	8.10%	8.00%	—
05/26/22	Core PCE QoQ	5.20%	5.10%	5.20%	—
05/26/22	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	210k	218k	—
05/26/22	Continuing Claims	1310k	1346k	1317k	1315k
05/26/22	Pending Home Sales MoM	-2.10%	—	-1.20%	—
05/26/22	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-7.60%	—	-8.90%	—
05/26/22	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	15	—	25	—
05/27/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$114.8b	—	-$125.3b	-$127.1b
05/27/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	2.00%	—	2.30%	—
05/27/22	Personal Income	0.50%	—	0.50%	—
05/27/22	Personal Spending	0.70%	—	1.10%	—
05/27/22	Real Personal Spending	0.70%	—	0.20%	—
05/27/22	Retail Inventories MoM	2.00%	—	2.00%	—
05/27/22	PCE Deflator MoM	0.20%	—	0.90%	—
05/27/22	PCE Deflator YoY	6.20%	—	6.60%	—
05/27/22	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
05/27/22	PCE Core Deflator YoY	4.90%	—	5.20%	—
05/27/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	59.1	—	59.1	—
05/27/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	63.6	—	63.6	—
05/27/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	56.3	—	56.3	—
05/27/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.40%	—	5.40%	—
05/27/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

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