May 26, 2022 Headlines

Short and intermediate Treasury yields are 1-3 basis points lower today, and US equity futures are pointing to a continuation of yesterday’s post-minutes rally. The minutes of the May 4 FOMC meeting reinforced the expectation of 50 bps rate hikes at both the June and July meetings; however, there was some nod to the idea of pausing rate hikes later this year. “Many participants” judged that by frontloading the removal of policy accommodation, the FOMC would be “well positioned later this year to assess the effects of policy firming.” As we discussed earlier this week, Atlanta Fed President had expressed support for the idea of a September pause after consecutive 50 bps rate hikes at the prior three meetings, and idea that “many” committee members favor a potential assessment period fueled a rally in risk markets yesterday afternoon. For bonds, the price action appeared relatively healthy. There was no major reaction in either direction, which is the antithesis of the typically volatile pricing patterns we’ve seen this year around focus events like yesterday’s minutes. Next up will be the April income, spending, and PCE report released tomorrow morning.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

05/23/22Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.50.470.440.36
05/24/22S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI57.757.559.2
05/24/22S&P Global US Services PMI55.253.555.6
05/24/22S&P Global US Composite PMI55.753.856
05/24/22Revisions: New Home Sales
05/24/22Richmond Fed Manufact. Index10-914
05/24/22New Home Sales748k591k763k709k
05/24/22New Home Sales MoM-2.00%-16.60%-8.60%-10.50%
05/25/22MBA Mortgage Applications-1.20%-11.00%
05/25/22Durable Goods Orders0.60%0.40%1.10%0.60%
05/25/22Durables Ex Transportation0.60%0.30%1.40%1.10%
05/25/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.30%1.30%1.10%
05/25/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.80%0.40%0.20%
05/25/22FOMC Meeting Minutes
05/26/22GDP Annualized QoQ-1.30%-1.50%-1.40%
05/26/22Personal Consumption2.80%3.10%2.70%
05/26/22GDP Price Index8.00%8.10%8.00%
05/26/22Core PCE QoQ5.20%5.10%5.20%
05/26/22Initial Jobless Claims215k210k218k
05/26/22Continuing Claims1310k1346k1317k1315k
05/26/22Pending Home Sales MoM-2.10%-1.20%
05/26/22Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-7.60%-8.90%
05/26/22Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1525
05/27/22Advance Goods Trade Balance-$114.8b-$125.3b-$127.1b
05/27/22Wholesale Inventories MoM2.00%2.30%
05/27/22Personal Income0.50%0.50%
05/27/22Personal Spending0.70%1.10%
05/27/22Real Personal Spending0.70%0.20%
05/27/22Retail Inventories MoM2.00%2.00%
05/27/22PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.90%
05/27/22PCE Deflator YoY6.20%6.60%
05/27/22PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%
05/27/22PCE Core Deflator YoY4.90%5.20%
05/27/22U. of Mich. Sentiment59.159.1
05/27/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions63.663.6
05/27/22U. of Mich. Expectations56.356.3
05/27/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.40%5.40%
05/27/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%

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