May 26, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields were initially lower to start the day but have since reversed following another stubbornly high inflation report. Core PCE rose 0.4% m/m in April versus expectations of a 0.3% increase, and on a year-over-year basis, the core measure rose to 4.7% from 4.6% the previous month. Personal spending adjusted for inflation was also higher than expected in April (0.5% vs. 0.3%), and personal income growth was in line with expectations at 0.4% m/m. It’s yet another sign of a resilient U.S. consumer that will likely fuel a healthy debate within the Fed on whether to pause rate hikes at the June FOMC meeting. The bond market will close at 2pm ET today ahead of Monday’s holiday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
05/23/23 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity -16 -22.8
05/23/23 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 50 48.5 50.2
05/23/23 S&P Global US Services PMI 52.5 55.1 53.6
05/23/23 S&P Global US Composite PMI 53 54.5 53.4
05/23/23 New Home Sales 665k 683k 683k 656k
05/23/23 New Home Sales MoM -2.60% 4.10% 9.60% 4.00%
05/23/23 Revisions: New Home Sales
05/23/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -8 -15 -10
05/23/23 Richmond Fed Business Conditions -17 -27
05/24/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.60% -5.70%
05/24/23 FOMC Meeting Minutes
05/25/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -0.2 0.07 -0.19 -0.37
05/25/23 Initial Jobless Claims 245k 229k 242k 225k
05/25/23 Continuing Claims 1800k 1794k 1799k
05/25/23 GDP Annualized QoQ 1.10% 1.30% 1.10%
05/25/23 Personal Consumption 3.70% 3.80% 3.70%
05/25/23 GDP Price Index 4.00% 4.20% 4.00%
05/25/23 Core PCE QoQ 4.90% 5.00% 4.90%
05/25/23 Pending Home Sales MoM 1.00% 0.00% -5.20%
05/25/23 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -20.10% -22.60% -23.30%
05/25/23 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -9 -1 -10
05/26/23 Durable Goods Orders -1.00% 1.10% 3.20% 3.30%
05/26/23 Durables Ex Transportation -0.10% -0.20% 0.20% 0.30%
05/26/23 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.10% 1.40% -0.60% -0.60%
05/26/23 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.10% 0.50% -0.50% -0.20%
05/26/23 Personal Income 0.40% 0.40% 0.30%
05/26/23 Personal Spending 0.50% 0.80% 0.00% 0.10%
05/26/23 Real Personal Spending 0.30% 0.50% 0.00%
05/26/23 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.40% 0.10%
05/26/23 PCE Deflator YoY 4.30% 4.40% 4.20%
05/26/23 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.40% 0.30%
05/26/23 PCE Core Deflator YoY 4.60% 4.70% 4.60%
05/26/23 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.00% -0.20% 0.00% -0.30%
05/26/23 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$85.9b -$96.8b -$84.6b -$82.7b
05/26/23 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.70% 0.50%
05/26/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment 58 57.7
05/26/23 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 64.5
05/26/23 U. of Mich. Expectations 53.4
05/26/23 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.50% 4.50%
05/26/23 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.10% 3.20%
05/26/23 Kansas City Fed Services Activity 7

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.