May 27, 2020 Headlines

The positive momentum in risk markets has carried forward today, with S&P 500 futures up more than 1% and Treasury yields leaking wider across the curve. The European Commission unveiled plans for a recovery fund that was first reported last week, and the size is larger than what was initially expected. The €750 billion fund would be made up of €500 billion of grants and €250 billion of loans for European Union member states struggling with COVID-19 economic fallout, and it would be funded by joint debt issuance. The next major step is approval by all 27 member states, but the plan reportedly has the support of both Germany and France, which would be a major hurdle. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 2.7% for the week ended May 22, with an 8.6% increase in purchase applications offsetting a 0.2% decline in refi applications. Refi application activity has cooled off from March/April levels, with the refi index posting the sixth consecutive weekly decline, but activity still remains well above historical averages.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/26/2020 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -3.5 -16.7 -4.19 -4.97
5/26/2020 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 1.70% 1.30% 1.40%
5/26/2020 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.50% 0.10% 0.70% 0.80%
5/26/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.30% 0.47% 0.45% 0.52%
5/26/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 3.44% 3.92% 3.47% 3.52%
5/26/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 222.2 219.75 219.86
5/26/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 4.35% 4.16%
5/26/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 215 213.16
5/26/2020 Revisions: New Home Sales
5/26/2020 New Home Sales 480k 623k 627k 619k
5/26/2020 New Home Sales MoM -23.40% 0.60% -15.40% -13.70%
5/26/2020 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 87 86.6 86.9 85.7
5/26/2020 Conf. Board Expectations 96.9 93.8 94.3
5/26/2020 Conf. Board Present Situation 71.1 76.4 73
5/26/2020 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -61 -49.2 -73.7
5/27/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.70% -2.60%
5/27/2020 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -40 -53
5/27/2020 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
5/28/2020 GDP Annualized QoQ -4.80% -4.80%
5/28/2020 Personal Consumption -7.50% -7.60%
5/28/2020 GDP Price Index 1.30% 1.30%
5/28/2020 Core PCE QoQ 1.80% 1.80%
5/28/2020 Durable Goods Orders -19.10% -14.70%
5/28/2020 Durables Ex Transportation -15.00% -0.40%
5/28/2020 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -10.00% -0.10%
5/28/2020 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -12.00% -0.20%
5/28/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 2100k 2438k
5/28/2020 Continuing Claims 25500k 25073k
5/28/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 34.7
5/28/2020 Pending Home Sales MoM -15.00% -20.80%
5/28/2020 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -14.50%
5/28/2020 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -22 -30
5/29/2020 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$65.0b -$64.2b -$64.4b
5/29/2020 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.60% -0.80%
5/29/2020 Retail Inventories MoM -0.80% 0.90%
5/29/2020 Personal Income -6.30% -2.00%
5/29/2020 Personal Spending -12.80% -7.50%
5/29/2020 Real Personal Spending -12.50% -7.30%
5/29/2020 PCE Deflator MoM -0.60% -0.30%
5/29/2020 PCE Deflator YoY 0.50% 1.30%
5/29/2020 PCE Core Deflator MoM -0.30% -0.10%
5/29/2020 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.10% 1.70%
5/29/2020 MNI Chicago PMI 40 35.4
5/29/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 74 73.7
5/29/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 83
5/29/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 67.7
5/29/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.00%
5/29/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.60%


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