May 27, 2021 Headlines

Another Fed leader suggested the QE tapering discussion may need to begin soon, which is pushing Treasury yields higher and steeper this morning. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles said that he’s “fully committed” to the Fed’s current strategy, but he added that “it will become important…to begin discussing our plans to adjust the pace of asset purchases” if his personal expectations for growth, inflation, and employment evolve in the coming months.” Quarles’ comments are not dissimilar from what Fed Vice Chair Clarida expressed earlier this week, and it doesn’t yet materially impact general market expectations of tapering beginning late 2021/early 2022.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
05/24/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index1.20.241.71
05/25/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.00%1.40%0.90%1.10%
05/25/21House Price Purchase Index QoQ3.50%3.80%3.90%
05/25/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.30%1.60%1.17%1.23%
05/25/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA12.55%13.27%11.94%12.00%
05/25/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA13.19%11.97%12.04%
05/25/21New Home Sales950k863k1021k917k
05/25/21New Home Sales MoM-7.00%-5.90%20.70%7.40%
05/25/21Revisions: New Home Sales
05/25/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence118.8117.2121.7117.5
05/25/21Conf. Board Present Situation144.3139.6131.9
05/25/21Conf. Board Expectations99.1109.8107.9
05/25/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index191817
05/26/21MBA Mortgage Applications-4.20%1.20%
05/27/21Durable Goods Orders0.80%-1.30%0.80%1.30%
05/27/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%1.00%1.90%3.20%
05/27/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%2.30%1.20%1.60%
05/27/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.90%1.60%1.50%
05/27/21Initial Jobless Claims425k406k444k
05/27/21Continuing Claims3680k3642k3751k3738k
05/27/21GDP Annualized QoQ6.50%6.40%6.40%
05/27/21Personal Consumption10.90%11.30%10.70%
05/27/21GDP Price Index4.10%4.30%4.10%
05/27/21Core PCE QoQ2.30%2.50%2.30%
05/27/21Langer Consumer Comfort55.3
05/27/21Pending Home Sales MoM0.40%1.90%
05/27/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY25.30%
05/27/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity3031
05/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$92.0b-$90.6b
05/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%1.30%
05/28/21Retail Inventories MoM-2.00%-1.40%
05/28/21Personal Income-14.30%21.10%
05/28/21Personal Spending0.50%4.20%
05/28/21Real Personal Spending0.20%3.60%
05/28/21PCE Deflator MoM0.60%0.50%
05/28/21PCE Deflator YoY3.50%2.30%
05/28/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.60%0.40%
05/28/21PCE Core Deflator YoY2.90%1.80%
05/28/21MNI Chicago PMI6872.1
05/28/21U. of Mich. Sentiment8382.8
05/28/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions90.8
05/28/21U. of Mich. Expectations77.6
05/28/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%
05/28/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.10%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.