May 27, 2021 Headlines

Another Fed leader suggested the QE tapering discussion may need to begin soon, which is pushing Treasury yields higher and steeper this morning. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles said that he’s “fully committed” to the Fed’s current strategy, but he added that “it will become important…to begin discussing our plans to adjust the pace of asset purchases” if his personal expectations for growth, inflation, and employment evolve in the coming months.” Quarles’ comments are not dissimilar from what Fed Vice Chair Clarida expressed earlier this week, and it doesn’t yet materially impact general market expectations of tapering beginning late 2021/early 2022.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

05/24/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index1.20.241.71
05/25/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.00%1.40%0.90%1.10%
05/25/21House Price Purchase Index QoQ3.50%3.80%3.90%
05/25/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.30%1.60%1.17%1.23%
05/25/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA12.55%13.27%11.94%12.00%
05/25/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA13.19%11.97%12.04%
05/25/21New Home Sales950k863k1021k917k
05/25/21New Home Sales MoM-7.00%-5.90%20.70%7.40%
05/25/21Revisions: New Home Sales
05/25/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence118.8117.2121.7117.5
05/25/21Conf. Board Present Situation144.3139.6131.9
05/25/21Conf. Board Expectations99.1109.8107.9
05/25/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index191817
05/26/21MBA Mortgage Applications-4.20%1.20%
05/27/21Durable Goods Orders0.80%-1.30%0.80%1.30%
05/27/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%1.00%1.90%3.20%
05/27/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%2.30%1.20%1.60%
05/27/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.90%1.60%1.50%
05/27/21Initial Jobless Claims425k406k444k
05/27/21Continuing Claims3680k3642k3751k3738k
05/27/21GDP Annualized QoQ6.50%6.40%6.40%
05/27/21Personal Consumption10.90%11.30%10.70%
05/27/21GDP Price Index4.10%4.30%4.10%
05/27/21Core PCE QoQ2.30%2.50%2.30%
05/27/21Langer Consumer Comfort55.3
05/27/21Pending Home Sales MoM0.40%1.90%
05/27/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY25.30%
05/27/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity3031
05/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$92.0b-$90.6b
05/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%1.30%
05/28/21Retail Inventories MoM-2.00%-1.40%
05/28/21Personal Income-14.30%21.10%
05/28/21Personal Spending0.50%4.20%
05/28/21Real Personal Spending0.20%3.60%
05/28/21PCE Deflator MoM0.60%0.50%
05/28/21PCE Deflator YoY3.50%2.30%
05/28/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.60%0.40%
05/28/21PCE Core Deflator YoY2.90%1.80%
05/28/21MNI Chicago PMI6872.1
05/28/21U. of Mich. Sentiment8382.8
05/28/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions90.8
05/28/21U. of Mich. Expectations77.6
05/28/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%
05/28/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.10%

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