Another Fed leader suggested the QE tapering discussion may need to begin soon, which is pushing Treasury yields higher and steeper this morning. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles said that he’s “fully committed” to the Fed’s current strategy, but he added that “it will become important…to begin discussing our plans to adjust the pace of asset purchases” if his personal expectations for growth, inflation, and employment evolve in the coming months.” Quarles’ comments are not dissimilar from what Fed Vice Chair Clarida expressed earlier this week, and it doesn’t yet materially impact general market expectations of tapering beginning late 2021/early 2022.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
05/24/21 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 1.2 | 0.24 | 1.71 | — |
05/25/21 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 1.00% | 1.40% | 0.90% | 1.10% |
05/25/21 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 3.50% | 3.80% | 3.90% |
05/25/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 1.30% | 1.60% | 1.17% | 1.23% |
05/25/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 12.55% | 13.27% | 11.94% | 12.00% |
05/25/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 13.19% | 11.97% | 12.04% |
05/25/21 | New Home Sales | 950k | 863k | 1021k | 917k |
05/25/21 | New Home Sales MoM | -7.00% | -5.90% | 20.70% | 7.40% |
05/25/21 | Revisions: New Home Sales | ||||
05/25/21 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 118.8 | 117.2 | 121.7 | 117.5 |
05/25/21 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 144.3 | 139.6 | 131.9 |
05/25/21 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 99.1 | 109.8 | 107.9 |
05/25/21 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 19 | 18 | 17 | — |
05/26/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.20% | 1.20% | — |
05/27/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.80% | -1.30% | 0.80% | 1.30% |
05/27/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.70% | 1.00% | 1.90% | 3.20% |
05/27/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 1.00% | 2.30% | 1.20% | 1.60% |
05/27/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.80% | 0.90% | 1.60% | 1.50% |
05/27/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 425k | 406k | 444k | — |
05/27/21 | Continuing Claims | 3680k | 3642k | 3751k | 3738k |
05/27/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 6.50% | 6.40% | 6.40% | — |
05/27/21 | Personal Consumption | 10.90% | 11.30% | 10.70% | — |
05/27/21 | GDP Price Index | 4.10% | 4.30% | 4.10% | — |
05/27/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 2.30% | 2.50% | 2.30% | — |
05/27/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 55.3 | — |
05/27/21 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | 1.90% | — |
05/27/21 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 25.30% | — |
05/27/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 30 | — | 31 | — |
05/28/21 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$92.0b | — | -$90.6b | — |
05/28/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | — | 1.30% | — |
05/28/21 | Retail Inventories MoM | -2.00% | — | -1.40% | — |
05/28/21 | Personal Income | -14.30% | — | 21.10% | — |
05/28/21 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 4.20% | — |
05/28/21 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 3.60% | — |
05/28/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.50% | — |
05/28/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 3.50% | — | 2.30% | — |
05/28/21 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.40% | — |
05/28/21 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 2.90% | — | 1.80% | — |
05/28/21 | MNI Chicago PMI | 68 | — | 72.1 | — |
05/28/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 83 | — | 82.8 | — |
05/28/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 90.8 | — |
05/28/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 77.6 | — |
05/28/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.60% | — |
05/28/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.10% | — |
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