May 28, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower again this morning in response to several headlines over the long weekend that are, on the margin, negative for global growth. Trade negotiations between China and the U.S. remain at a stalemate, and Hong Kong’s economy continues to suffer the consequences, with exports declining for the sixth consecutive month on a year-over-year basis (imports down for fifth consecutive month). Separately, the Chinese government seized a bank for the first time in 20 years and has raised concerns about the health of other smaller lenders in the country. In Europe, Italy faces potential disciplinary procedures from the European Union (EU) on June 5 for failing to curb its debt load according to prior agreements, and EU elections over the weekend saw strong gains from populist/nationalist parties of various member nations. The latter sparks concern in the markets of a greater push for anti-EU policies (i.e., political destabilization in the region). This week’s domestic economic calendar is headlined by the April PCE report on Friday (also includes personal income/spending data), and four Fed leaders will be speaking this week at separate events beginning tomorrow.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
5/28/2019	House Price Purchase Index QoQ	—	—	1.10%	—
5/28/2019	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.20%	—	0.30%	—
5/28/2019	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.46%	—	0.20%	—
5/28/2019	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	2.50%	—	3.00%	—
5/28/2019	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index	213.8	—	212.7	—
5/28/2019	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	3.80%	—	4.01%	—
5/28/2019	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index	—	—	205.04	—
5/28/2019	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	130	—	129.2	—
5/28/2019	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	168.3	—
5/28/2019	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	103	—
5/28/2019	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	6.2	—	2	—
5/29/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	2.40%	—
5/29/2019	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	7	—	3	—
5/30/2019	GDP Annualized QoQ	3.00%	—	3.20%	—
5/30/2019	Personal Consumption	1.20%	—	1.20%	—
5/30/2019	GDP Price Index	0.90%	—	0.90%	—
5/30/2019	Core PCE QoQ	1.30%	—	1.30%	—
5/30/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	211k	—
5/30/2019	Continuing Claims	1667k	—	1676k	—
5/30/2019	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$72.5b	—	-$71.4b	—
5/30/2019	Retail Inventories MoM	0.20%	—	-0.30%	—
5/30/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
5/30/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	60.3	—
5/30/2019	Pending Home Sales MoM	0.50%	—	3.80%	—
5/30/2019	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	0.10%	—	-3.20%	—
5/31/2019	Personal Income	0.30%	—	0.10%	—
5/31/2019	Personal Spending	0.20%	—	0.90%	—
5/31/2019	Real Personal Spending	0.00%	—	0.70%	—
5/31/2019	PCE Deflator MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
5/31/2019	PCE Deflator YoY	1.60%	—	1.50%	—
5/31/2019	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.20%	—	0.00%	—
5/31/2019	PCE Core Deflator YoY	1.60%	—	1.60%	—
5/31/2019	MNI Chicago PMI	54	—	52.6	—
5/31/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	101	—	102.4	—
5/31/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	112.4	—
5/31/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	96	—
5/31/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.80%	—
5/31/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.60%	—

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