May 28, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower again this morning in response to several headlines over the long weekend that are, on the margin, negative for global growth. Trade negotiations between China and the U.S. remain at a stalemate, and Hong Kong’s economy continues to suffer the consequences, with exports declining for the sixth consecutive month on a year-over-year basis (imports down for fifth consecutive month). Separately, the Chinese government seized a bank for the first time in 20 years and has raised concerns about the health of other smaller lenders in the country.  In Europe, Italy faces potential disciplinary procedures from the European Union (EU) on June 5 for failing to curb its debt load according to prior agreements, and EU elections over the weekend saw strong gains from populist/nationalist parties of various member nations. The latter sparks concern in the markets of a greater push for anti-EU policies (i.e., political destabilization in the region). This week’s domestic economic calendar is headlined by the April PCE report on Friday (also includes personal income/spending data), and four Fed leaders will be speaking this week at separate events beginning tomorrow.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

5/28/2019House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.10%
5/28/2019FHFA House Price Index MoM0.20%0.30%
5/28/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.46%0.20%
5/28/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.50%3.00%
5/28/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.8212.7
5/28/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.80%4.01%
5/28/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.04
5/28/2019Conf. Board Consumer Confidence130129.2
5/28/2019Conf. Board Present Situation168.3
5/28/2019Conf. Board Expectations103
5/28/2019Dallas Fed Manf. Activity6.22
5/29/2019MBA Mortgage Applications2.40%
5/29/2019Richmond Fed Manufact. Index73
5/30/2019GDP Annualized QoQ3.00%3.20%
5/30/2019Personal Consumption1.20%1.20%
5/30/2019GDP Price Index0.90%0.90%
5/30/2019Core PCE QoQ1.30%1.30%
5/30/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k211k
5/30/2019Continuing Claims1667k1676k
5/30/2019Advance Goods Trade Balance-$72.5b-$71.4b
5/30/2019Retail Inventories MoM0.20%-0.30%
5/30/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%-0.10%
5/30/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.3
5/30/2019Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%3.80%
5/30/2019Pending Home Sales NSA YoY0.10%-3.20%
5/31/2019Personal Income0.30%0.10%
5/31/2019Personal Spending0.20%0.90%
5/31/2019Real Personal Spending0.00%0.70%
5/31/2019PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.20%
5/31/2019PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.50%
5/31/2019PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.00%
5/31/2019PCE Core Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%
5/31/2019MNI Chicago PMI5452.6
5/31/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment101102.4
5/31/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions112.4
5/31/2019U. of Mich. Expectations96
5/31/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
5/31/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%









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