Treasury yields are lower again this morning in response to several headlines over the long weekend that are, on the margin, negative for global growth. Trade negotiations between China and the U.S. remain at a stalemate, and Hong Kong’s economy continues to suffer the consequences, with exports declining for the sixth consecutive month on a year-over-year basis (imports down for fifth consecutive month). Separately, the Chinese government seized a bank for the first time in 20 years and has raised concerns about the health of other smaller lenders in the country. In Europe, Italy faces potential disciplinary procedures from the European Union (EU) on June 5 for failing to curb its debt load according to prior agreements, and EU elections over the weekend saw strong gains from populist/nationalist parties of various member nations. The latter sparks concern in the markets of a greater push for anti-EU policies (i.e., political destabilization in the region). This week’s domestic economic calendar is headlined by the April PCE report on Friday (also includes personal income/spending data), and four Fed leaders will be speaking this week at separate events beginning tomorrow.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/28/2019 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/28/2019 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/28/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.46% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/28/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 2.50% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 5/28/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 213.8 | — | 212.7 | — |
| 5/28/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 3.80% | — | 4.01% | — |
| 5/28/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | — | 205.04 | — |
| 5/28/2019 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 130 | — | 129.2 | — |
| 5/28/2019 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 168.3 | — |
| 5/28/2019 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 103 | — |
| 5/28/2019 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 6.2 | — | 2 | — |
| 5/29/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 5/29/2019 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 7 | — | 3 | — |
| 5/30/2019 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.00% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Personal Consumption | 1.20% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | GDP Price Index | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.30% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 211k | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1667k | — | 1676k | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$72.5b | — | -$71.4b | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.3 | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 0.10% | — | -3.20% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | Real Personal Spending | 0.00% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.60% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.60% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | MNI Chicago PMI | 54 | — | 52.6 | — |
| 5/31/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 101 | — | 102.4 | — |
| 5/31/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 112.4 | — |
| 5/31/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 96 | — |
| 5/31/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
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