Treasury prices fell overnight in anticipation of today’s Treasury refunding announcement, as well as better economic data in Europe. Global equity markets are mixed (Euro Stoxx +0.4%, Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.3%), and S&P 500 futures are currently down 3 points. Today’s FOMC meeting should be relatively uneventful, but there will be some focus on the Fed’s characterization of current inflation given the recent data. On the trade front, a China-U.S. trade summit is being held in Beijing May 3-4, but recent media reports suggest nothing substantive will emerge from this particular meeting. China is reportedly prepared to make several concessions, including reduced auto tariffs and a more open financial system, but U.S. officials are demanding more.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
05/01/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.556.556.5
05/01/2018Construction Spending MoM0.50%-1.70%0.10%1.00%
05/01/2018ISM Manufacturing58.557.359.3
05/01/2018ISM Employment54.257.3
05/01/2018ISM Prices Paid78.579.378.1
05/01/2018ISM New Orders61.261.9
05/01/2018Wards Release April Auto Data — Excluding GM
05/02/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%-0.20%
05/02/2018ADP Employment Change198k204k241k228k
05/02/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.75%
05/02/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.50%
05/03/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY39.40%
05/03/2018Nonfarm Productivity0.90%0.00%
05/03/2018Unit Labor Costs3.00%2.50%
05/03/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k209k
05/03/2018Continuing Claims1835k1837k
05/03/2018Trade Balance-$50.0b-$57.6b
05/03/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.5
05/03/2018Markit US Services PMI54.554.4
05/03/2018Markit US Composite PMI54.8
05/03/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite5858.8
05/03/2018Durable Goods Orders2.60%
05/03/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.00%
05/03/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
05/03/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.70%
05/03/2018Factory Orders1.40%1.20%
05/03/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%
05/04/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls191k103k
05/04/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-50k
05/04/2018Change in Private Payrolls190k102k
05/04/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls20k22k
05/04/2018Unemployment Rate4.00%4.10%
05/04/2018Underemployment Rate8.00%
05/04/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
05/04/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.70%
05/04/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
05/04/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%62.90%
05/07/2018Consumer Credit$16.000b$10.601b
05/07/2018Mortgage Delinquencies5.17%
05/07/2018MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.19%
05/08/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism104.7
05/08/2018JOLTS Job Openings6052
05/09/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.40%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand YoY3.00%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%
05/09/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%
05/09/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%