Treasury prices fell overnight in anticipation of today’s Treasury refunding announcement, as well as better economic data in Europe. Global equity markets are mixed (Euro Stoxx +0.4%, Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.3%), and S&P 500 futures are currently down 3 points. Today’s FOMC meeting should be relatively uneventful, but there will be some focus on the Fed’s characterization of current inflation given the recent data. On the trade front, a China-U.S. trade summit is being held in Beijing May 3-4, but recent media reports suggest nothing substantive will emerge from this particular meeting. China is reportedly prepared to make several concessions, including reduced auto tariffs and a more open financial system, but U.S. officials are demanding more.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 05/01/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 56.5 | 56.5 | 56.5 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | -1.70% | 0.10% | 1.00% |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.5 | 57.3 | 59.3 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM Employment | — | 54.2 | 57.3 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | 78.5 | 79.3 | 78.1 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | 61.2 | 61.9 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | Wards Release April Auto Data — Excluding GM | ||||
| 05/02/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.50% | -0.20% | — |
| 05/02/2018 | ADP Employment Change | 198k | 204k | 241k | 228k |
| 05/02/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.75% | — | 1.75% | — |
| 05/02/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.50% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 39.40% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.90% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.00% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 209k | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1835k | — | 1837k | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Trade Balance | -$50.0b | — | -$57.6b | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 57.5 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.5 | — | 54.4 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.8 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 58 | — | 58.8 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Factory Orders | 1.40% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 191k | — | 103k | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -50k | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | 190k | — | 102k | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 20k | — | 22k | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.00% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.90% | — | 62.90% | — |
| 05/07/2018 | Consumer Credit | $16.000b | — | $10.601b | — |
| 05/07/2018 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 5.17% | — |
| 05/07/2018 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 1.19% | — |
| 05/08/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 104.7 | — |
| 05/08/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 6052 | — |
| 05/09/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.50% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.50% | — |