May 3, 2019 Headlines

US Treasury yields are slightly higher overnight and S&P 500 futures are up .35% as flows continued to be light with Asian markets observing holidays. There were no major headlines outside of strong economic data coming out of Europe. In the morning, the Labor Department released Nonfarm Payrolls which climbed above even the highest Bloomberg survey estimate at 263,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings growth remained unchanged and slightly below expectations at 3.2% YoY while the average work week shorted to 34.4 hours. Fed Chairmen Powell already knew the results of the report when he spoke Wednesday after the FOMC decision.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

04/29/19BEA Releases March income/spending (includes Feb. outlays)
04/29/19Personal Income0.40%0.10%0.20%
04/29/19Personal Spending0.30%0.10%0.10%0.30%
04/29/19Real Personal Spending0.00%0.10%0.40%
04/29/19Personal Spending0.70%0.90%0.10%
04/29/19PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%-0.10%0.00%
04/29/19Real Personal Spending0.50%0.70%0.00%
04/29/19PCE Deflator YoY1.30%1.40%
04/29/19PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.20%0.10%
04/29/19PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
04/29/19PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.50%1.30%
04/29/19PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.80%
04/29/19PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.00%0.10%
04/29/19PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.60%1.70%
04/29/19Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1028.36.9
04/29/19Revisions: Dallas Fed Manufacturing
04/30/19Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%0.70%
04/30/19Revisions: Employment Cost Index
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%0.20%0.11%0.09%
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.95%3.00%3.58%3.51%
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.08212.7212.41212.27
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.90%4.01%4.26%4.22%
04/30/19S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.04204.71204.62
04/30/19MNI Chicago PMI58.552.658.7
04/30/19Pending Home Sales MoM1.50%3.80%-1.00%
04/30/19Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.00%-3.20%-5.00%
04/30/19Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126.8129.2124.1124.2
04/30/19Conf. Board Present Situation168.3160.6163
04/30/19Conf. Board Expectations10399.898.3
05/01/19MBA Mortgage Applications-4.30%-7.30%
05/01/19ADP Employment Change180k275k129k151k
05/01/19Markit US Manufacturing PMI52.452.652.4
05/01/19ISM Manufacturing5552.855.3
05/01/19ISM Employment52.457.5
05/01/19ISM Prices Paid555054.3
05/01/19ISM New Orders51.757.4
05/01/19Construction Spending MoM0.00%-0.90%1.00%0.70%
05/01/19FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.50%2.50%2.50%
05/01/19FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.25%2.25%2.25%
05/01/19Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.40%2.35%2.40%
05/01/19Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m16.40m17.50m
05/02/19Challenger Job Cuts YoY10.90%0.40%
05/02/19Initial Jobless Claims215k230k230k
05/02/19Continuing Claims1660k1671k1655k1654k
05/02/19Nonfarm Productivity2.20%3.60%1.90%1.30%
05/02/19Unit Labor Costs1.50%-0.90%2.00%2.50%
05/02/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.460.8
05/02/19Factory Orders1.60%1.90%-0.50%-0.30%
05/02/19Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%0.30%
05/02/19Durable Goods Orders2.60%2.70%
05/02/19Durables Ex Transportation0.30%0.40%
05/02/19Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.40%1.30%
05/02/19Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%-0.20%
05/03/19Change in Nonfarm Payrolls190k263k196k189k
05/03/19Two-Month Payroll Net Revision16k
05/03/19Change in Private Payrolls188k236k182k179k
05/03/19Change in Manufact. Payrolls10k4k-6k0k
05/03/19Unemployment Rate3.80%3.60%3.80%
05/03/19Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%0.10%0.20%
05/03/19Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.30%3.20%3.20%
05/03/19Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.434.5
05/03/19Labor Force Participation Rate63.00%62.80%63.00%
05/03/19Underemployment Rate7.30%7.30%
05/03/19Advance Goods Trade Balance-$73.0b-$71.4b-$70.9b
05/03/19Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.00%0.20%0.10%
05/03/19Retail Inventories MoM0.10%-0.30%0.30%0.20%
05/03/19Markit US Services PMI52.952.9
05/03/19Markit US Composite PMI52.8
05/03/19ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5756.1



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