Treasuries were mixed overnight with a more hawkish policy announcement from Australia’s central bank adding to the general bearishness for the short-end of the curve, and long-end Treasuries were better bid overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. Markets will pay closer attention than normal to the government’s JOLTS job openings data for March later this morning. Fed Chair Powell made clear at the March 16 FOMC press conference that the ratio of job openings to total unemployed persons is a key area of concern for him and his colleagues. When the February figure was released on March 29, a slightly higher than expected number of job openings sparked a 10 basis point reversal in the 2-year yield, evidence that the bond market was keying in on this metric following Powell’s comments.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/3/2022 | Factory Orders | 1.20% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 5/3/2022 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/3/2022 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.80% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 5/3/2022 | Durables Ex Transportation | 1.10% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/3/2022 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 5/3/2022 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/3/2022 | JOLTS Job Openings | 11200k | — | 11266k | — |
| 5/3/2022 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 14.15m | — | 13.33m | — |
| 5/4/2022 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -8.30% | — |
| 5/4/2022 | ADP Employment Change | 385k | — | 455k | — |
| 5/4/2022 | Trade Balance | -$107.1b | — | -$89.2b | — |
| 5/4/2022 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 54.7 | — | 54.7 | — |
| 5/4/2022 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 55.1 | — | 55.1 | — |
| 5/4/2022 | ISM Services Index | 58.5 | — | 58.3 | — |
| 5/4/2022 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 0.75% | — | 0.25% | — |
| 5/4/2022 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.00% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/4/2022 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 0.90% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/5/2022 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -30.10% | — |
| 5/5/2022 | Nonfarm Productivity | -5.20% | — | 6.60% | — |
| 5/5/2022 | Unit Labor Costs | 10.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/5/2022 | Initial Jobless Claims | 180k | — | 180k | — |
| 5/5/2022 | Continuing Claims | 1400k | — | 1408k | — |
| 5/6/2022 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 95k | — |
| 5/6/2022 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 390k | — | 431k | — |
| 5/6/2022 | Change in Private Payrolls | 395k | — | 426k | — |
| 5/6/2022 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 34k | — | 38k | — |
| 5/6/2022 | Unemployment Rate | 3.50% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 5/6/2022 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/6/2022 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 5.50% | — | 5.60% | — |
| 5/6/2022 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.7 | — | 34.6 | — |
| 5/6/2022 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.40% | — |
| 5/6/2022 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 6.90% | — |
| 5/6/2022 | Consumer Credit | $25.000b | — | $41.820b | — |
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