The market is taking a breather this morning with rates essentially unchanged while risk assets are experiencing a modest uptick following the release of solid economic data. First quarter GDP was revised lower, but moved lower less than expected, down to 3.1% from 3.2% as of the first report and was 0.1% higher than what analysts forecasted. Consumer spending, a little over 70% of GDP, was revised higher to 1.3% from 1.2%. Given the fears of a slowing economy, this positive data should help to assuage some of these concerns. The data release from this morning also showed inflation moderating as Core PCE increased at a 1% pace, its slowest pace in 3 years. Lower levels of inflation could prompt the Fed to cut rates with the market pricing in a 83% chance of a cut by the end of the year.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/28/2019 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 1.10% | 1.10% | 1.20% |
| 5/28/2019 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 5/28/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.20% | 0.26% |
| 5/28/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 2.50% | 2.68% | 3.00% | 2.95% |
| 5/28/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 213.8 | 214.09 | 212.7 | 212.61 |
| 5/28/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 3.80% | 3.72% | 4.01% | 3.93% |
| 5/28/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 206.23 | 205.04 | 204.9 |
| 5/28/2019 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 130 | 134.1 | 129.2 | — |
| 5/28/2019 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 175.2 | 168.3 | 169 |
| 5/28/2019 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 106.6 | 103 | 102.7 |
| 5/28/2019 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 6.2 | -5.3 | 2 | — |
| 5/29/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.30% | 2.40% | — |
| 5/29/2019 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 7 | 5 | 3 | — |
| 5/30/2019 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.00% | 3.10% | 3.20% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Personal Consumption | 1.20% | 1.30% | 1.20% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | GDP Price Index | 0.90% | 0.80% | 0.90% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.30% | 1.00% | 1.30% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 214k | 215k | 211k | 212k |
| 5/30/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1662k | 1657k | 1676k | 1683k |
| 5/30/2019 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$72.7b | -$72.1b | -$71.4b | -$71.9b |
| 5/30/2019 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.20% | 0.50% | -0.30% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.10% | 0.70% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 5/30/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.3 | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/30/2019 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 0.10% | — | -3.20% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | Real Personal Spending | 0.00% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.60% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.60% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | MNI Chicago PMI | 54 | — | 52.6 | — |
| 5/31/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 101.5 | — | 102.4 | — |
| 5/31/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 112.4 | — |
| 5/31/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 96 | — |
| 5/31/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 5/31/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
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