May 30, 2019 Headlines

The market is taking a breather this morning with rates essentially unchanged while risk assets are experiencing a modest uptick following the release of solid economic data. First quarter GDP was revised lower, but moved lower less than expected, down to 3.1% from 3.2% as of the first report and was 0.1% higher than what analysts forecasted. Consumer spending, a little over 70% of GDP, was revised higher to 1.3% from 1.2%. Given the fears of a slowing economy, this positive data should help to assuage some of these concerns. The data release from this morning also showed inflation moderating as Core PCE increased at a 1% pace, its slowest pace in 3 years. Lower levels of inflation could prompt the Fed to cut rates with the market pricing in a 83% chance of a cut by the end of the year.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

5/28/2019House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.10%1.10%1.20%
5/28/2019FHFA House Price Index MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%0.40%
5/28/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.46%0.09%0.20%0.26%
5/28/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.50%2.68%3.00%2.95%
5/28/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.8214.09212.7212.61
5/28/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.80%3.72%4.01%3.93%
5/28/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index206.23205.04204.9
5/28/2019Conf. Board Consumer Confidence130134.1129.2
5/28/2019Conf. Board Present Situation175.2168.3169
5/28/2019Conf. Board Expectations106.6103102.7
5/28/2019Dallas Fed Manf. Activity6.2-5.32
5/29/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-3.30%2.40%
5/29/2019Richmond Fed Manufact. Index753
5/30/2019GDP Annualized QoQ3.00%3.10%3.20%
5/30/2019Personal Consumption1.20%1.30%1.20%
5/30/2019GDP Price Index0.90%0.80%0.90%
5/30/2019Core PCE QoQ1.30%1.00%1.30%
5/30/2019Initial Jobless Claims214k215k211k212k
5/30/2019Continuing Claims1662k1657k1676k1683k
5/30/2019Advance Goods Trade Balance-$72.7b-$72.1b-$71.4b-$71.9b
5/30/2019Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.50%-0.30%
5/30/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%0.70%-0.10%0.00%
5/30/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.3
5/30/2019Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%3.80%
5/30/2019Pending Home Sales NSA YoY0.10%-3.20%
5/31/2019Personal Income0.30%0.10%
5/31/2019Personal Spending0.20%0.90%
5/31/2019Real Personal Spending0.00%0.70%
5/31/2019PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.20%
5/31/2019PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.50%
5/31/2019PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.00%
5/31/2019PCE Core Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%
5/31/2019MNI Chicago PMI5452.6
5/31/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment101.5102.4
5/31/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions112.4
5/31/2019U. of Mich. Expectations96
5/31/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
5/31/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%











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