May 30, 2023 Headlines

Intermediate and long-end Treasury yields are 4-7 basis points lower following reports that a debt ceiling deal has been reached ‘in principle.’ The House is expected to vote on the legislation on Wednesday, and it is expected to face opposition from hardliners in both parties. The bill suspends the debt limit until 2025, after the next elections, and discretionary spending would be effectively capped over that same timeframe. Assuming the bill is able to pass, market attention now shifts back to the data trend and the Fed. The May jobs report will be released on Friday, and April job openings data (JOLTS) will be released tomorrow morning. Recent inflation and labor market data haven’t likely done much to dissuade the Fed hawks, particularly if we get past the debt ceiling relatively unscathed. Fed funds futures pricing currently implies a 65% chance of a June 14 rate hike (25 bps).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/30/2023 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.20% 0.60% 0.50% 0.70%
5/30/2023 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 0.50% 0.30% 0.20%
5/30/2023 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.00% 0.45% 0.06% -0.07%
5/30/2023 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA -1.60% -1.15% 0.36%
5/30/2023 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 0.66% 2.05% 2.13%
5/30/2023 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 99 101.3
5/30/2023 Conf. Board Present Situation 151.1
5/30/2023 Conf. Board Expectations 68.1
5/30/2023 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -18 -23.4
5/31/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.60%
5/31/2023 MNI Chicago PMI 47 48.6
5/31/2023 JOLTS Job Openings 9400k 9590k
5/31/2023 Dallas Fed Services Activity -14.4
5/31/2023 Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
6/1/2023 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 175.90%
6/1/2023 ADP Employment Change 170k 296k
6/1/2023 Nonfarm Productivity -2.50% -2.70%
6/1/2023 Unit Labor Costs 6.20% 6.30%
6/1/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 235k 229k
6/1/2023 Continuing Claims 1800k 1794k
6/1/2023 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 48.5 48.5
6/1/2023 Construction Spending MoM 0.20% 0.30%
6/1/2023 ISM Manufacturing 47 47.1
6/1/2023 ISM Prices Paid 52.3 53.2
6/1/2023 ISM Employment 50.2
6/1/2023 ISM New Orders 45.7
6/1/2023 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.30m 15.91m
6/2/2023 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 195k 253k
6/2/2023 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision -149k
6/2/2023 Change in Private Payrolls 165k 230k
6/2/2023 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k 11k
6/2/2023 Unemployment Rate 3.50% 3.40%
6/2/2023 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.50%
6/2/2023 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.40% 4.40%
6/2/2023 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.4 34.4
6/2/2023 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60% 62.60%
6/2/2023 Underemployment Rate 6.60%
6/5/2023 S&P Global US Services PMI 55.1
6/5/2023 S&P Global US Composite PMI 54.5
6/5/2023 Factory Orders Ex Trans -0.70% -1.00%
6/5/2023 Factory Orders 0.80% 0.90% 0.40%
6/5/2023 Durable Goods Orders 1.10%
6/5/2023 ISM Services Index 52.5 51.9
6/5/2023 Durables Ex Transportation -0.20%
6/5/2023 ISM Services Prices Paid 59.6
6/5/2023 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.40%
6/5/2023 ISM Services Employment 50.8
6/5/2023 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.50%
6/5/2023 ISM Services New Orders 56.1

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