The tone in global risk markets is improved this morning, and consequently, Treasuries have retraced nearly half of yesterday’s gains (yields up 5-7 basis points). There really weren’t any new (major) headlines out of Italy overnight, although it appears that there is a last-minute effort to form a coalition government. Global equity markets are mixed today, with Asian markets down 1.5%-2.0% in sympathy with yesterday’s price action in U.S./European markets (lower). European markets are modestly higher for the most part, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 10 points following yesterday’s 31 point decline (-1.16%) in the underlying index. Yesterday’s market volatility was somewhat reflective of ongoing anxiousness in global markets. Despite solid economic data in the U.S. and abroad (for the most part), investors seem to be waiting for a shoe to drop. Five years ago, a negative headline regarding an Italian political situation (or Greece, Spain, etc.) would have been shrugged off as somewhat normal business, but nevertheless, there appears to be a more cautious tone given where we are in the global business cycle, as well as ongoing Fed tightening (and not to mention trade tensions, geopolitical concerns, etc.).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 05/29/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.75% | 0.53% | 0.83% | 0.84% |
| 05/29/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.45% | 6.79% | 6.80% | 6.76% |
| 05/29/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 208.62 | 206.67 | 206.57 |
| 05/29/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 198.94 | 197.01 | 197.29 |
| 05/29/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.53% | 6.34% | 6.51% |
| 05/29/2018 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 128 | 128 | 128.7 | 125.6 |
| 05/29/2018 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 161.7 | 159.6 | 157.5 |
| 05/29/2018 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 105.6 | 108.1 | 104.3 |
| 05/29/2018 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 23.8 | 26.8 | 21.8 | — |
| 05/30/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.90% | -2.60% | — |
| 05/30/2018 | ADP Employment Change | 190k | 178k | 204k | 163k |
| 05/30/2018 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.30% | 2.20% | 2.30% | — |
| 05/30/2018 | Personal Consumption | 1.20% | 1.00% | 1.10% | — |
| 05/30/2018 | GDP Price Index | 2.00% | 1.90% | 2.00% | — |
| 05/30/2018 | Core PCE QoQ | 2.50% | 2.30% | 2.50% | — |
| 05/30/2018 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$71.0b | -$68.2b | -$68.0b | -$68.6b |
| 05/30/2018 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | 0.60% | -0.40% | -0.70% |
| 05/30/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 05/30/2018 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 05/31/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -1.40% | — |
| 05/31/2018 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/31/2018 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/31/2018 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/31/2018 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 05/31/2018 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 05/31/2018 | PCE Core MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/31/2018 | PCE Core YoY | 1.80% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 05/31/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | — | 234k | — |
| 05/31/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1733k | — | 1741k | — |
| 05/31/2018 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 58.3 | — | 57.6 | — |
| 05/31/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 55.2 | — |
| 05/31/2018 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/31/2018 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -4.40% | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 190k | — | 164k | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 30k | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | 193k | — | 168k | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 20k | — | 24k | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Unemployment Rate | 3.90% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.80% | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 62.80% | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 56.6 | — | 56.6 | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.80% | — | -1.70% | — |
| 06/01/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.2 | — | 57.3 | — |
| 06/01/2018 | ISM Employment | — | — | 54.2 | — |
| 06/01/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | 78 | — | 79.3 | — |
| 06/01/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 61.2 | — |
| 06/01/2018 | Wards Releases May Auto Data — Excluding GM | ||||
| 06/04/2018 | Factory Orders | -0.50% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 06/04/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/04/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | -1.70% | — |
| 06/04/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 06/04/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 06/04/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 06/05/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | — | — | 55.7 | — |
| 06/05/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.7 | — |
| 06/05/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 6550 | — |
| 06/05/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 57.4 | — | 56.8 | — |
| 06/06/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.90% | — |
| 06/06/2018 | Revisions: Trade Balance | ||||
| 06/06/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 06/06/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 06/06/2018 | Trade Balance | -$51.3b | — | -$49.0b | — |