The tone in global risk markets is improved this morning, and consequently, Treasuries have retraced nearly half of yesterday’s gains (yields up 5-7 basis points). There really weren’t any new (major) headlines out of Italy overnight, although it appears that there is a last-minute effort to form a coalition government. Global equity markets are mixed today, with Asian markets down 1.5%-2.0% in sympathy with yesterday’s price action in U.S./European markets (lower). European markets are modestly higher for the most part, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 10 points following yesterday’s 31 point decline (-1.16%) in the underlying index. Yesterday’s market volatility was somewhat reflective of ongoing anxiousness in global markets. Despite solid economic data in the U.S. and abroad (for the most part), investors seem to be waiting for a shoe to drop. Five years ago, a negative headline regarding an Italian political situation (or Greece, Spain, etc.) would have been shrugged off as somewhat normal business, but nevertheless, there appears to be a more cautious tone given where we are in the global business cycle, as well as ongoing Fed tightening (and not to mention trade tensions, geopolitical concerns, etc.).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
05/29/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.75%0.53%0.83%0.84%
05/29/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.45%6.79%6.80%6.76%
05/29/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index208.62206.67206.57
05/29/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index198.94197.01197.29
05/29/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.53%6.34%6.51%
05/29/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence128128128.7125.6
05/29/2018Conf. Board Present Situation161.7159.6157.5
05/29/2018Conf. Board Expectations105.6108.1104.3
05/29/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity23.826.821.8
05/30/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.90%-2.60%
05/30/2018ADP Employment Change190k178k204k163k
05/30/2018GDP Annualized QoQ2.30%2.20%2.30%
05/30/2018Personal Consumption1.20%1.00%1.10%
05/30/2018GDP Price Index2.00%1.90%2.00%
05/30/2018Core PCE QoQ2.50%2.30%2.50%
05/30/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$71.0b-$68.2b-$68.0b-$68.6b
05/30/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.60%-0.40%-0.70%
05/30/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.00%0.30%0.20%
05/30/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
05/31/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY-1.40%
05/31/2018Personal Income0.30%0.30%
05/31/2018Personal Spending0.40%0.40%
05/31/2018Real Personal Spending0.20%0.40%
05/31/2018PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.00%
05/31/2018PCE Deflator YoY2.00%2.00%
05/31/2018PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%
05/31/2018PCE Core YoY1.80%1.90%
05/31/2018Initial Jobless Claims228k234k
05/31/2018Continuing Claims1733k1741k
05/31/2018Chicago Purchasing Manager58.357.6
05/31/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort55.2
05/31/2018Pending Home Sales MoM0.40%0.40%
05/31/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.40%
06/01/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls190k164k
06/01/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision30k
06/01/2018Change in Private Payrolls193k168k
06/01/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls20k24k
06/01/2018Unemployment Rate3.90%3.90%
06/01/2018Underemployment Rate7.80%
06/01/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.10%
06/01/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.60%2.60%
06/01/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
06/01/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.80%
06/01/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.656.6
06/01/2018Construction Spending MoM0.80%-1.70%
06/01/2018ISM Manufacturing58.257.3
06/01/2018ISM Employment54.2
06/01/2018ISM Prices Paid7879.3
06/01/2018ISM New Orders61.2
06/01/2018Wards Releases May Auto Data — Excluding GM
06/04/2018Factory Orders-0.50%1.60%
06/04/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%
06/04/2018Durable Goods Orders-1.70%
06/04/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.90%
06/04/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%
06/04/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%
06/05/2018Markit US Services PMI55.7
06/05/2018Markit US Composite PMI55.7
06/05/2018JOLTS Job Openings6550
06/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite57.456.8
06/06/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.90%
06/06/2018Revisions: Trade Balance
06/06/2018Nonfarm Productivity0.70%0.70%
06/06/2018Unit Labor Costs2.70%2.70%
06/06/2018Trade Balance-$51.3b-$49.0b