May 31, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are 9-13 basis points higher across the curve after inflation readings in Europe surprised to the upside and set fresh records in Germany and France. Stocks are responding negatively to the inflation data, including higher oil prices this morning in response to reports that the European Union has agreed to pursue a partial ban on Russian oil. Markets are also reacting to May PMI data from China, which indicated a potential deceleration in economic slowdown, as well as the announcement of fresh stimulus measures to offset the impacts of broad Covid lockdowns in recent months.

In Fed news, Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday that he supports 50 bps rate hikes “for several meetings” and wouldn’t support taking such hikes off the table until he sees inflation coming down closer to the 2% target. Waller is clearly positioning himself on the other side of the argument from some Fed leaders to potentially pause or slow the recent pace of rate hikes in September to assess the economic impact of the Fed’s actions. Fed Chair Powell will be meeting with President Biden this afternoon to discuss the current inflation troubles.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
5/31/2022	FHFA House Price Index MoM	2.00%	—	2.10%	—
5/31/2022	House Price Purchase Index QoQ	—	—	3.30%	—
5/31/2022	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.90%	—	2.39%	—
5/31/2022	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	20.00%	—	20.20%	—
5/31/2022	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	—	19.80%	—
5/31/2022	MNI Chicago PMI	55	—	56.4	—
5/31/2022	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	103.5	—	107.3	—
5/31/2022	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	152.6	—
5/31/2022	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	77.2	—
5/31/2022	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	1.5	—	1.1	—
6/1/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-1.20%	—
6/1/2022	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	57.5	—	57.5	—
6/1/2022	Construction Spending MoM	0.60%	—	0.10%	—
6/1/2022	ISM Manufacturing	54.5	—	55.4	—
6/1/2022	ISM Prices Paid	80.5	—	84.6	—
6/1/2022	ISM New Orders	—	—	53.5	—
6/1/2022	ISM Employment	—	—	50.9	—
6/1/2022	JOLTS Job Openings	11400k	—	11549k	—
6/1/2022	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
6/1/2022	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.30m	—	14.29m	—
6/2/2022	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	6.00%	—
6/2/2022	ADP Employment Change	300k	—	247k	—
6/2/2022	Nonfarm Productivity	-7.50%	—	-7.50%	—
6/2/2022	Unit Labor Costs	11.60%	—	11.60%	—
6/2/2022	Initial Jobless Claims	210k	—	210k	—
6/2/2022	Continuing Claims	1333k	—	1346k	—
6/2/2022	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	2.50%	2.10%
6/2/2022	Factory Orders	0.70%	—	2.20%	1.80%
6/2/2022	Durable Goods Orders	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
6/2/2022	Durables Ex Transportation	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
6/2/2022	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.30%	—
6/2/2022	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.80%	—
6/3/2022	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	-39k	—
6/3/2022	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	325k	—	428k	—
6/3/2022	Change in Private Payrolls	300k	—	406k	—
6/3/2022	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	39k	—	55k	—
6/3/2022	Unemployment Rate	3.50%	—	3.60%	—
6/3/2022	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
6/3/2022	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.20%	—	5.50%	—
6/3/2022	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.6	—	34.6	—
6/3/2022	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.30%	—	62.20%	—
6/3/2022	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.00%	—
6/3/2022	S&P Global US Services PMI	53.5	—	53.5	—
6/3/2022	S&P Global US Composite PMI	53.8	—	53.8	—
6/3/2022	ISM Services Index	56.5	—	57.1	—

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