After two manic trading days, the market has settled in with Treasuries opening this morning slightly flatter. The rally in risk assets stalled out as continued trade tensions between the US and China weighed on the market.
Consumer spending increased by the largest rate in five months, coming in at 0.6% vs 0.5% expected. Additionally, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, PCE, increased by 2% from the prior year; putting it right in line with the central bank’s target. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy came in at 1.8%, just shy of the Fed’s 2% target. Overall, the report points to the Fed being able to raise rates gradually, but given the current pace of inflation, they shouldn’t have much reason to increase the rate of tightening.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 05/29 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.75% | 0.53% | 0.83% | 0.84% |
| 05/29 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.45% | 6.79% | 6.80% | 6.76% |
| 05/29 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 208.62 | 206.67 | 206.57 |
| 05/29 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 198.94 | 197.01 | 197.29 |
| 05/29 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.53% | 6.34% | 6.51% |
| 05/29 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 128 | 128 | 128.7 | 125.6 |
| 05/29 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 161.7 | 159.6 | 157.5 |
| 05/29 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 105.6 | 108.1 | 104.3 |
| 05/29 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 23.8 | 26.8 | 21.8 | — |
| 05/30 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.90% | -2.60% | — |
| 05/30 | ADP Employment Change | 190k | 178k | 204k | 163k |
| 05/30 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.30% | 2.20% | 2.30% | — |
| 05/30 | Personal Consumption | 1.20% | 1.00% | 1.10% | — |
| 05/30 | GDP Price Index | 2.00% | 1.90% | 2.00% | — |
| 05/30 | Core PCE QoQ | 2.50% | 2.30% | 2.50% | — |
| 05/30 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$71.0b | -$68.2b | -$68.0b | -$68.6b |
| 05/30 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | 0.60% | -0.40% | -0.70% |
| 05/30 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 05/30 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 05/31 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -4.80% | -1.40% | — |
| 05/31 | Personal Income | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 05/31 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 05/31 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 05/31 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.00% | — |
| 05/31 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | — |
| 05/31 | PCE Core MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 05/31 | PCE Core YoY | 1.80% | 1.80% | 1.90% | 1.80% |
| 05/31 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | 221k | 234k | — |
| 05/31 | Continuing Claims | 1733k | 1726k | 1741k | 1742k |
| 05/31 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 58.3 | — | 57.6 | — |
| 05/31 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 55.2 | — |
| 05/31 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/31 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -4.40% | — |
| 06/01 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 190k | — | 164k | — |
| 06/01 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 06/01 | Change in Private Payrolls | 190k | — | 168k | — |
| 06/01 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 20k | — | 24k | — |
| 06/01 | Unemployment Rate | 3.90% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 06/01 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.80% | — |
| 06/01 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 06/01 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 06/01 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 06/01 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 62.80% | — |
| 06/01 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 56.6 | — | 56.6 | — |
| 06/01 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.80% | — | -1.70% | — |
| 06/01 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.2 | — | 57.3 | — |
| 06/01 | ISM Employment | — | — | 54.2 | — |
| 06/01 | ISM Prices Paid | 78 | — | 79.3 | — |
| 06/01 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 61.2 | — |
| 06/01 | Wards Releases May Auto Data — Excluding GM | ||||
| 06/01 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.70m | — | 17.07m | — |