Treasury prices are moving higher this morning following a weak Eurozone inflation report for April (weakest core reading in over a year). Asian equity markets were mixed overnight (Japan closed for holiday), and European equities are 30-40 basis points lower. In the U.S., S&P 500 futures are 6 points lower ahead of the open. The U.S./China trade summit began in Beijing today, and there are no developments/announcements to this point. U.S. negotiations are being led by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, and there appear to be a wide range of expectations regarding the ultimate results of this 2-day meeting (positive and negative). It’s unlikely that a comprehensive resolution will be reached, but some short-term measures could be agreed upon in an effort to keep good-faith negotiations moving forward (and for political cover).
On the date front, initial jobless claims rose slightly for the week ended April 28, but the 4-week moving average of jobless claims reached a fresh 49-year low. However, if adjusted for labor force growth since records began in 1967, jobless claims have been holding at all-time lows for some time. The April jobs report will be released tomorrow morning, and the market is currently expecting payrolls to add 193,000 jobs and the headline unemployment rate to fall 10 bps to 4%.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 05/01/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 56.5 | 56.5 | 56.5 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | -1.70% | 0.10% | 1.00% |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.5 | 57.3 | 59.3 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM Employment | — | 54.2 | 57.3 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | 78.5 | 79.3 | 78.1 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | 61.2 | 61.9 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | Wards Release April Auto Data — Excluding GM | ||||
| 05/02/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.50% | -0.20% | — |
| 05/02/2018 | ADP Employment Change | 198k | 204k | 241k | 228k |
| 05/02/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.75% | — |
| 05/02/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -1.40% | 39.40% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.90% | 0.70% | 0.00% | 0.30% |
| 05/03/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.00% | 2.70% | 2.50% | 2.10% |
| 05/03/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 211k | 209k | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1835k | 1756k | 1837k | 1833k |
| 05/03/2018 | Trade Balance | -$50.0b | -$49.0b | -$57.6b | -$57.7b |
| 05/03/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 57.5 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.5 | — | 54.4 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.8 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 58 | — | 58.8 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Factory Orders | 1.40% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 193k | — | 103k | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -50k | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | 190k | — | 102k | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 20k | — | 22k | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.00% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.90% | — | 62.90% | — |
| 05/07/2018 | Consumer Credit | $16.000b | — | $10.601b | — |
| 05/07/2018 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 5.17% | — |
| 05/07/2018 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 1.19% | — |
| 05/08/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 105 | — | 104.7 | — |
| 05/08/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 6052 | — |
| 05/09/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.50% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.80% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 211k | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1756k | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | 249.554 | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 256.2 | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 05/10/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | — | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | — | — | -$208.7b | — |