Treasury prices are moving higher this morning following a weak Eurozone inflation report for April (weakest core reading in over a year). Asian equity markets were mixed overnight (Japan closed for holiday), and European equities are 30-40 basis points lower. In the U.S., S&P 500 futures are 6 points lower ahead of the open. The U.S./China trade summit began in Beijing today, and there are no developments/announcements to this point. U.S. negotiations are being led by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, and there appear to be a wide range of expectations regarding the ultimate results of this 2-day meeting (positive and negative). It’s unlikely that a comprehensive resolution will be reached, but some short-term measures could be agreed upon in an effort to keep good-faith negotiations moving forward (and for political cover).

On the date front, initial jobless claims rose slightly for the week ended April 28, but the 4-week moving average of jobless claims reached a fresh 49-year low. However, if adjusted for labor force growth since records began in 1967, jobless claims have been holding at all-time lows for some time. The April jobs report will be released tomorrow morning, and the market is currently expecting payrolls to add 193,000 jobs and the headline unemployment rate to fall 10 bps to 4%.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
05/01/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.556.556.5
05/01/2018Construction Spending MoM0.50%-1.70%0.10%1.00%
05/01/2018ISM Manufacturing58.557.359.3
05/01/2018ISM Employment54.257.3
05/01/2018ISM Prices Paid78.579.378.1
05/01/2018ISM New Orders61.261.9
05/01/2018Wards Release April Auto Data — Excluding GM
05/02/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%-0.20%
05/02/2018ADP Employment Change198k204k241k228k
05/02/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.75%1.75%
05/02/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.50%1.50%
05/03/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY-1.40%39.40%
05/03/2018Nonfarm Productivity0.90%0.70%0.00%0.30%
05/03/2018Unit Labor Costs3.00%2.70%2.50%2.10%
05/03/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k211k209k
05/03/2018Continuing Claims1835k1756k1837k1833k
05/03/2018Trade Balance-$50.0b-$49.0b-$57.6b-$57.7b
05/03/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.5
05/03/2018Markit US Services PMI54.554.4
05/03/2018Markit US Composite PMI54.8
05/03/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite5858.8
05/03/2018Factory Orders1.40%1.20%
05/03/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%
05/03/2018Durable Goods Orders2.60%
05/03/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.00%
05/03/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
05/03/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.70%
05/04/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls193k103k
05/04/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-50k
05/04/2018Change in Private Payrolls190k102k
05/04/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls20k22k
05/04/2018Unemployment Rate4.00%4.10%
05/04/2018Underemployment Rate8.00%
05/04/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
05/04/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.70%
05/04/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
05/04/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%62.90%
05/07/2018Consumer Credit$16.000b$10.601b
05/07/2018Mortgage Delinquencies5.17%
05/07/2018MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.19%
05/08/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism105104.7
05/08/2018JOLTS Job Openings6052
05/09/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.40%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%3.00%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.70%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%
05/09/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%
05/09/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%
05/10/2018CPI MoM0.30%-0.10%
05/10/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
05/10/2018CPI YoY2.50%2.40%
05/10/2018Initial Jobless Claims211k
05/10/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.10%
05/10/2018Continuing Claims1756k
05/10/2018CPI Index NSA249.554
05/10/2018CPI Core Index SA256.2
05/10/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.90%
05/10/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.40%
05/10/2018Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/10/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
05/10/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$208.7b