May 4, 2021 Headlines

Weakness in U.S. and European equity markets is sparking a modest bid for Treasuries so far this morning. S&P 500 futures were down as much as 67 bps earlier this morning, and there doesn’t appear to be a clear catalyst for the softness at this point other than rumors of military tensions between China and Taiwan. Covid-related restrictions continue to be eased by states across the country. Florida lifted all remaining restrictions yesterday, and most businesses in the tri-state area of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut will be allowed to open at full capacity in mid-May, including resumption of 24-hour subway service in NYC. At the same time, Fed Chair Powell and NY Fed President Williams both reinforced dovish policy positions in separate speeches yesterday, with Williams saying the recovery so far was “not nearly enough.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

05/03/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI60.760.560.6
05/03/21Construction Spending MoM1.60%0.20%-0.80%-0.60%
05/03/21ISM Manufacturing6560.764.7
05/03/21ISM Prices Paid8689.685.6
05/03/21ISM New Orders69.564.368
05/03/21ISM Employment55.159.6
05/03/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.60m18.51m17.75m
05/04/21Trade Balance-$74.4b-$74.4b-$71.1b-$70.5b
05/04/21Factory Orders1.30%-0.80%
05/04/21Factory Orders Ex Trans1.80%-0.60%
05/04/21Durable Goods Orders0.50%0.50%
05/04/21Durables Ex Transportation1.60%1.60%
05/04/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.90%0.90%
05/04/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.30%
05/05/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%
05/05/21ADP Employment Change873k517k
05/05/21Markit US Services PMI63.163.1
05/05/21Markit US Composite PMI62.2
05/05/21ISM Services Index64.163.7
05/05/21-05/07/21Mortgage Delinquencies6.73%
05/05/21-05/07/21MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.56%
05/06/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-86.20%
05/06/21Nonfarm Productivity4.40%-4.20%
05/06/21Unit Labor Costs-1.00%6.00%
05/06/21Initial Jobless Claims540k553k
05/06/21Continuing Claims3620k3660k
05/06/21Langer Consumer Comfort55
05/07/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls995k916k
05/07/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision156k
05/07/21Change in Private Payrolls925k780k
05/07/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls60k53k
05/07/21Unemployment Rate5.80%6.00%
05/07/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.00%-0.10%
05/07/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY-0.40%4.20%
05/07/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.934.9
05/07/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.60%61.50%
05/07/21Underemployment Rate10.70%
05/07/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.40%1.40%
05/07/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%-0.80%
05/07/21Consumer Credit$20.250b$27.578b

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