May 4, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed ahead of today’s FOMC announcement, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% as of 8:10am EDT. Markets are prepped (and priced for a 50 bps rate hike today, as well as the announcement of balance sheet reduction plans in line with what was revealed in the March 16 FOMC minutes. If there were a surprise one way or the other, it would more likely be on the hawkish side given recent wage inflation and jobs data. ECI, a key measure of wage growth for the Fed, set a new record for quarterly growth in Q1, and following yesterday’s JOLTS report, the ratio of job openings to total unemployed is now up to 1.95:1. Recall at the March 16 press conference that Powell referred to this ratio, which was just 1.7:1 at the time, as an “unhealthy” level.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

05/02/22S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI59.759.259.7
05/02/22Construction Spending MoM0.80%0.10%0.50%
05/02/22ISM Manufacturing57.655.457.1
05/02/22ISM Prices Paid87.484.687.1
05/02/22ISM New Orders54.153.553.8
05/02/22ISM Employment5550.956.3
05/03/22Factory Orders1.20%2.20%-0.50%0.10%
05/03/22Factory Orders Ex Trans2.50%0.40%1.00%
05/03/22Durable Goods Orders0.80%1.10%0.80%
05/03/22Durables Ex Transportation1.10%1.40%1.10%
05/03/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%1.30%1.00%
05/03/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%0.20%
05/03/22JOLTS Job Openings11200k11549k11266k11344k
05/03/22Wards Total Vehicle Sales14.15m14.29m13.33m
05/04/22MBA Mortgage Applications2.50%-8.30%
05/04/22ADP Employment Change383k247k455k479k
05/04/22Trade Balance-$107.1b-$89.2b
05/04/22S&P Global US Services PMI54.754.7
05/04/22S&P Global US Composite PMI55.155.1
05/04/22ISM Services Index58.558.3
05/04/22FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.75%0.25%
05/04/22FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.00%0.50%
05/04/22Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.90%0.40%
05/05/22Challenger Job Cuts YoY-30.10%
05/05/22Nonfarm Productivity-5.30%6.60%
05/05/22Unit Labor Costs10.00%0.90%
05/05/22Initial Jobless Claims180k180k
05/05/22Continuing Claims1400k1408k
05/06/22Two-Month Payroll Net Revision95k
05/06/22Change in Nonfarm Payrolls385k431k
05/06/22Change in Private Payrolls390k426k
05/06/22Change in Manufact. Payrolls35k38k
05/06/22Unemployment Rate3.50%3.60%
05/06/22Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.40%
05/06/22Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.50%5.60%
05/06/22Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.6
05/06/22Labor Force Participation Rate62.50%62.40%
05/06/22Underemployment Rate6.90%
05/06/22Consumer Credit$25.000b$41.820b

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