May 4, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed ahead of today’s FOMC announcement, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% as of 8:10am EDT. Markets are prepped (and priced for a 50 bps rate hike today, as well as the announcement of balance sheet reduction plans in line with what was revealed in the March 16 FOMC minutes. If there were a surprise one way or the other, it would more likely be on the hawkish side given recent wage inflation and jobs data. ECI, a key measure of wage growth for the Fed, set a new record for quarterly growth in Q1, and following yesterday’s JOLTS report, the ratio of job openings to total unemployed is now up to 1.95:1. Recall at the March 16 press conference that Powell referred to this ratio, which was just 1.7:1 at the time, as an “unhealthy” level.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
05/02/22 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 59.7 59.2 59.7
05/02/22 Construction Spending MoM 0.80% 0.10% 0.50%
05/02/22 ISM Manufacturing 57.6 55.4 57.1
05/02/22 ISM Prices Paid 87.4 84.6 87.1
05/02/22 ISM New Orders 54.1 53.5 53.8
05/02/22 ISM Employment 55 50.9 56.3
05/03/22 Factory Orders 1.20% 2.20% -0.50% 0.10%
05/03/22 Factory Orders Ex Trans 2.50% 0.40% 1.00%
05/03/22 Durable Goods Orders 0.80% 1.10% 0.80%
05/03/22 Durables Ex Transportation 1.10% 1.40% 1.10%
05/03/22 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.00% 1.30% 1.00%
05/03/22 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.40% 0.20%
05/03/22 JOLTS Job Openings 11200k 11549k 11266k 11344k
05/03/22 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 14.15m 14.29m 13.33m
05/04/22 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.50% -8.30%
05/04/22 ADP Employment Change 383k 247k 455k 479k
05/04/22 Trade Balance -$107.1b -$89.2b
05/04/22 S&P Global US Services PMI 54.7 54.7
05/04/22 S&P Global US Composite PMI 55.1 55.1
05/04/22 ISM Services Index 58.5 58.3
05/04/22 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.75% 0.25%
05/04/22 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1.00% 0.50%
05/04/22 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 0.90% 0.40%
05/05/22 Challenger Job Cuts YoY -30.10%
05/05/22 Nonfarm Productivity -5.30% 6.60%
05/05/22 Unit Labor Costs 10.00% 0.90%
05/05/22 Initial Jobless Claims 180k 180k
05/05/22 Continuing Claims 1400k 1408k
05/06/22 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision 95k
05/06/22 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 385k 431k
05/06/22 Change in Private Payrolls 390k 426k
05/06/22 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 35k 38k
05/06/22 Unemployment Rate 3.50% 3.60%
05/06/22 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.40% 0.40%
05/06/22 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.50% 5.60%
05/06/22 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.7 34.6
05/06/22 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.50% 62.40%
05/06/22 Underemployment Rate 6.90%
05/06/22 Consumer Credit $25.000b $41.820b

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