May 4, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed ahead of today’s FOMC announcement, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% as of 8:10am EDT. Markets are prepped (and priced for a 50 bps rate hike today, as well as the announcement of balance sheet reduction plans in line with what was revealed in the March 16 FOMC minutes. If there were a surprise one way or the other, it would more likely be on the hawkish side given recent wage inflation and jobs data. ECI, a key measure of wage growth for the Fed, set a new record for quarterly growth in Q1, and following yesterday’s JOLTS report, the ratio of job openings to total unemployed is now up to 1.95:1. Recall at the March 16 press conference that Powell referred to this ratio, which was just 1.7:1 at the time, as an “unhealthy” level.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
05/02/22	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	59.7	59.2	59.7	—
05/02/22	Construction Spending MoM	0.80%	0.10%	0.50%	—
05/02/22	ISM Manufacturing	57.6	55.4	57.1	—
05/02/22	ISM Prices Paid	87.4	84.6	87.1	—
05/02/22	ISM New Orders	54.1	53.5	53.8	—
05/02/22	ISM Employment	55	50.9	56.3	—
05/03/22	Factory Orders	1.20%	2.20%	-0.50%	0.10%
05/03/22	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	2.50%	0.40%	1.00%
05/03/22	Durable Goods Orders	0.80%	1.10%	0.80%	—
05/03/22	Durables Ex Transportation	1.10%	1.40%	1.10%	—
05/03/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	1.00%	1.30%	1.00%	—
05/03/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	0.40%	0.20%	—
05/03/22	JOLTS Job Openings	11200k	11549k	11266k	11344k
05/03/22	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.15m	14.29m	13.33m	—
05/04/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	2.50%	-8.30%	—
05/04/22	ADP Employment Change	383k	247k	455k	479k
05/04/22	Trade Balance	-$107.1b	—	-$89.2b	—
05/04/22	S&P Global US Services PMI	54.7	—	54.7	—
05/04/22	S&P Global US Composite PMI	55.1	—	55.1	—
05/04/22	ISM Services Index	58.5	—	58.3	—
05/04/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.75%	—	0.25%	—
05/04/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	1.00%	—	0.50%	—
05/04/22	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	0.90%	—	0.40%	—
05/05/22	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	-30.10%	—
05/05/22	Nonfarm Productivity	-5.30%	—	6.60%	—
05/05/22	Unit Labor Costs	10.00%	—	0.90%	—
05/05/22	Initial Jobless Claims	180k	—	180k	—
05/05/22	Continuing Claims	1400k	—	1408k	—
05/06/22	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	95k	—
05/06/22	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	385k	—	431k	—
05/06/22	Change in Private Payrolls	390k	—	426k	—
05/06/22	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	35k	—	38k	—
05/06/22	Unemployment Rate	3.50%	—	3.60%	—
05/06/22	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
05/06/22	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.50%	—	5.60%	—
05/06/22	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.7	—	34.6	—
05/06/22	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.50%	—	62.40%	—
05/06/22	Underemployment Rate	—	—	6.90%	—
05/06/22	Consumer Credit	$25.000b	—	$41.820b	—

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