Treasury prices are higher and the curve ~2bps flatter following a somewhat weak April Non-Farm Payroll report. Payroll numbers missed estimates at 164k vs 193k expected, unemployment hit 3.9% and average hourly earnings missed estimates at 0.1% vs 0.2% expected. While we haven’t seen unemployment this low since 2000, note that the contraction is most likely due to a reduction in the labor force, dropping .2% to 62.8%. Adding to the risk-off bid, there was no real outcome from the US/China trade talks (not unexpected at this point). On top of that, disappointing economic data came out of Europe (PMI hit 55.1 vs 55.2 consensus, slowing number of uncompleted backlogs and lowered company expectations of future output).
Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 05/01/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 56.5 | 56.5 | 56.5 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | -1.70% | 0.10% | 1.00% |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.5 | 57.3 | 59.3 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM Employment | — | 54.2 | 57.3 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | 78.5 | 79.3 | 78.1 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | 61.2 | 61.9 | — |
| 05/01/2018 | Wards Release April Auto Data — Excluding GM | ||||
| 05/02/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.50% | -0.20% | — |
| 05/02/2018 | ADP Employment Change | 198k | 204k | 241k | 228k |
| 05/02/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.75% | — |
| 05/02/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -1.40% | 39.40% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.90% | 0.70% | 0.00% | 0.30% |
| 05/03/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.00% | 2.70% | 2.50% | 2.10% |
| 05/03/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 211k | 209k | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1835k | 1756k | 1837k | 1833k |
| 05/03/2018 | Trade Balance | -$50.0b | -$49.0b | -$57.6b | -$57.7b |
| 05/03/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 56.5 | 57.5 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.5 | 54.6 | 54.4 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 54.9 | 54.8 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 58 | 56.8 | 58.8 | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Factory Orders | 1.40% | 1.60% | 1.20% | 1.60% |
| 05/03/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 05/03/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | — | 2.60% | 2.60% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | 0.10% | 0.00% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | -0.40% | -0.10% | — |
| 05/03/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | -0.80% | -0.70% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 193k | 164k | 103k | 135k |
| 05/04/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 30k | — | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | 190k | 168k | 102k | 135k |
| 05/04/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 20k | 24k | 22k | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Unemployment Rate | 4.00% | 3.90% | 4.10% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.80% | 8.00% | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 05/04/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.70% | 2.60% | 2.70% | 2.60% |
| 05/04/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | — |
| 05/04/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 63.00% | 62.80% | 62.90% | — |
| 05/07/2018 | Consumer Credit | $16.000b | — | $10.601b | — |
| 05/07/2018 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 5.17% | — |
| 05/07/2018 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 1.19% | — |
| 05/08/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 105 | — | 104.7 | — |
| 05/08/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 6052 | — |
| 05/09/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.50% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.80% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 218k | — | 211k | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1810k | — | 1756k | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 250.681 | — | 249.554 | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 256.2 | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 05/10/2018 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 05/10/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.5 | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | — | — | -$208.7b | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98.3 | — | 98.8 | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 114.9 | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 88.4 | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |