Treasury prices are higher and the curve ~2bps flatter following a somewhat weak April Non-Farm Payroll report. Payroll numbers missed estimates at 164k vs 193k expected, unemployment hit 3.9% and average hourly earnings missed estimates at 0.1% vs 0.2% expected. While we haven’t seen unemployment this low since 2000, note that the contraction is most likely due to a reduction in the labor force, dropping .2% to 62.8%.  Adding to the risk-off bid, there was no real outcome from the US/China trade talks (not unexpected at this point). On top of that, disappointing economic data came out of Europe (PMI hit 55.1 vs 55.2 consensus, slowing number of uncompleted backlogs and lowered company expectations of future output).

Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
05/01/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.556.556.5
05/01/2018Construction Spending MoM0.50%-1.70%0.10%1.00%
05/01/2018ISM Manufacturing58.557.359.3
05/01/2018ISM Employment54.257.3
05/01/2018ISM Prices Paid78.579.378.1
05/01/2018ISM New Orders61.261.9
05/01/2018Wards Release April Auto Data — Excluding GM
05/02/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%-0.20%
05/02/2018ADP Employment Change198k204k241k228k
05/02/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.75%1.75%
05/02/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.50%1.50%
05/03/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY-1.40%39.40%
05/03/2018Nonfarm Productivity0.90%0.70%0.00%0.30%
05/03/2018Unit Labor Costs3.00%2.70%2.50%2.10%
05/03/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k211k209k
05/03/2018Continuing Claims1835k1756k1837k1833k
05/03/2018Trade Balance-$50.0b-$49.0b-$57.6b-$57.7b
05/03/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.557.5
05/03/2018Markit US Services PMI54.554.654.4
05/03/2018Markit US Composite PMI54.954.8
05/03/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite5856.858.8
05/03/2018Factory Orders1.40%1.60%1.20%1.60%
05/03/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%0.10%0.20%
05/03/2018Durable Goods Orders2.60%2.60%
05/03/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.10%0.00%
05/03/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.40%-0.10%
05/03/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.80%-0.70%
05/04/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls193k164k103k135k
05/04/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision30k
05/04/2018Change in Private Payrolls190k168k102k135k
05/04/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls20k24k22k
05/04/2018Unemployment Rate4.00%3.90%4.10%
05/04/2018Underemployment Rate7.80%8.00%
05/04/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%0.20%
05/04/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.60%2.70%2.60%
05/04/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.534.5
05/04/2018Labor Force Participation Rate63.00%62.80%62.90%
05/07/2018Consumer Credit$16.000b$10.601b
05/07/2018Mortgage Delinquencies5.17%
05/07/2018MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.19%
05/08/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism105104.7
05/08/2018JOLTS Job Openings6052
05/09/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.40%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%3.00%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.70%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%
05/09/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%
05/09/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.60%0.50%
05/10/2018CPI MoM0.30%-0.10%
05/10/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
05/10/2018CPI YoY2.50%2.40%
05/10/2018Initial Jobless Claims218k211k
05/10/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.10%
05/10/2018Continuing Claims1810k1756k
05/10/2018CPI Index NSA250.681249.554
05/10/2018CPI Core Index SA256.2
05/10/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.90%
05/10/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.40%0.30%
05/10/2018Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/10/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.5
05/10/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$208.7b
05/11/2018Import Price Index MoM0.50%0.00%
05/11/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%
05/11/2018Import Price Index YoY3.90%3.60%
05/11/2018Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%
05/11/2018Export Price Index YoY3.40%
05/11/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment98.398.8
05/11/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.9
05/11/2018U. of Mich. Expectations88.4
05/11/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
05/11/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%