May 6, 2020 Headlines

The Treasury curve is steepening this morning (10yr yield +6 bps) after the Treasury Department announced that it will issue a record $96 billion next week, with a greater focus on longer-dated debt. Treasury also plans to issue $20 billion of 20-year bonds on May 20, which is approximately $6-8 billion more than what was expected. Also contributing to the Treasury sell-off this morning was an improved tone in risk markets overnight on reports of further easing of lockdowns in Europe and the U.S.  In a preview of Friday’s jobs report, the ADP employment index showed a 20.2 million decline in private payrolls in April, a staggering number even if expected. This index was first released in 2001, and for added perspective, the previous low was -835,000 in February 2009.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
5/6/2020MBA Mortgage Applications0.10%-3.30%
5/6/2020ADP Employment Change-20550k-20236k-27k-149k
5/7/2020Challenger Job Cuts YoY266.90%
5/7/2020Nonfarm Productivity-5.50%1.20%
5/7/2020Unit Labor Costs4.50%0.90%
5/7/2020Initial Jobless Claims3000k3839k
5/7/2020Continuing Claims19800k17992k
5/7/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort39.5
5/7/2020Consumer Credit$15.000b$22.331b
5/8/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
5/8/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls-21250k-701k
5/8/2020Change in Private Payrolls-21520k-713k
5/8/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls-2500k-18k
5/8/2020Unemployment Rate16.00%4.40%
5/8/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.40%
5/8/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.30%3.10%
5/8/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees33.634.2
5/8/2020Labor Force Participation Rate61.30%62.70%
5/8/2020Underemployment Rate8.70%
5/8/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM-1.00%-1.00%
5/8/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-3.00%-0.80%

 

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