May 6, 2020 Headlines

The Treasury curve is steepening this morning (10yr yield +6 bps) after the Treasury Department announced that it will issue a record $96 billion next week, with a greater focus on longer-dated debt. Treasury also plans to issue $20 billion of 20-year bonds on May 20, which is approximately $6-8 billion more than what was expected. Also contributing to the Treasury sell-off this morning was an improved tone in risk markets overnight on reports of further easing of lockdowns in Europe and the U.S.  In a preview of Friday’s jobs report, the ADP employment index showed a 20.2 million decline in private payrolls in April, a staggering number even if expected. This index was first released in 2001, and for added perspective, the previous low was -835,000 in February 2009.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/6/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.10% -3.30%
5/6/2020 ADP Employment Change -20550k -20236k -27k -149k
5/7/2020 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 266.90%
5/7/2020 Nonfarm Productivity -5.50% 1.20%
5/7/2020 Unit Labor Costs 4.50% 0.90%
5/7/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 3000k 3839k
5/7/2020 Continuing Claims 19800k 17992k
5/7/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 39.5
5/7/2020 Consumer Credit $15.000b $22.331b
5/8/2020 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
5/8/2020 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls -21250k -701k
5/8/2020 Change in Private Payrolls -21520k -713k
5/8/2020 Change in Manufact. Payrolls -2500k -18k
5/8/2020 Unemployment Rate 16.00% 4.40%
5/8/2020 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.40% 0.40%
5/8/2020 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.30% 3.10%
5/8/2020 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 33.6 34.2
5/8/2020 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.30% 62.70%
5/8/2020 Underemployment Rate 8.70%
5/8/2020 Wholesale Inventories MoM -1.00% -1.00%
5/8/2020 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM -3.00% -0.80%


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