Treasury prices are slightly higher this morning following a relatively quiet overnight session, and S&P 500 futures are up 1.5% despite another dismal jobless claims report. There were another 3.2 million first-time unemployment claims last week, and continuing claims, which lags a week (as of April 25), rose to 22.6 million. Financial markets continue to shrug off this data given that the current circumstances, but it sets the table for a historically bad monthly jobs report tomorrow. Funding markets continue to heal amid massive Fed support. One-month Libor reset at 0.198% today, down 80 bps since the end of March and only 5 bps above the all-time low of 0.152% in 2014.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/4/2020 | Factory Orders | -9.70% | -10.30% | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 5/4/2020 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | -3.70% | -0.90% | -1.10% |
| 5/4/2020 | Durable Goods Orders | -14.40% | -14.70% | -14.40% | — |
| 5/4/2020 | Durables Ex Transportation | -0.20% | -0.40% | -0.20% | — |
| 5/4/2020 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 5/4/2020 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | -0.20% | -0.20% | — |
| 5/5/2020 | Trade Balance | -$44.2b | -$44.4b | -$39.9b | -$39.8b |
| 5/5/2020 | Markit US Services PMI | 27 | 26.7 | 27 | — |
| 5/5/2020 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 27 | 27.4 | — |
| 5/5/2020 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 38 | 41.8 | 52.5 | — |
| 5/6/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.10% | -3.30% | — |
| 5/6/2020 | ADP Employment Change | -20550k | -20236k | -27k | -149k |
| 5/7/2020 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 1576.90% | 266.90% | — |
| 5/7/2020 | Nonfarm Productivity | -5.50% | -2.50% | 1.20% | — |
| 5/7/2020 | Unit Labor Costs | 4.50% | 4.80% | 0.90% | — |
| 5/7/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 3000k | 3169k | 3839k | 3846k |
| 5/7/2020 | Continuing Claims | 19800k | 22647k | 17992k | 18011k |
| 5/7/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 36.9 | 39.5 | — |
| 5/7/2020 | Consumer Credit | $15.000b | — | $22.331b | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | -21600k | — | -701k | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Change in Private Payrolls | -21340k | — | -713k | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -2500k | — | -18k | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Unemployment Rate | 16.00% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 33.6 | — | 34.2 | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.00% | — | 62.70% | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.70% | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -1.00% | — | -1.00% | — |
| 5/8/2020 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | -3.00% | — | -0.80% | — |
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