May 7, 2020 Headlines

Treasury prices are slightly higher this morning following a relatively quiet overnight session, and S&P 500 futures are up 1.5% despite another dismal jobless claims report. There were another 3.2 million first-time unemployment claims last week, and continuing claims, which lags a week (as of April 25), rose to 22.6 million. Financial markets continue to shrug off this data given that the current circumstances, but it sets the table for a historically bad monthly jobs report tomorrow. Funding markets continue to heal amid massive Fed support. One-month Libor reset at 0.198% today, down 80 bps since the end of March and only 5 bps above the all-time low of 0.152% in 2014.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/4/2020 Factory Orders -9.70% -10.30% 0.00% -0.10%
5/4/2020 Factory Orders Ex Trans — -3.70% -0.90% -1.10%
5/4/2020 Durable Goods Orders -14.40% -14.70% -14.40% —
5/4/2020 Durables Ex Transportation -0.20% -0.40% -0.20% —
5/4/2020 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.10% -0.10% 0.10% —
5/4/2020 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — -0.20% -0.20% —
5/5/2020 Trade Balance -$44.2b -$44.4b -$39.9b -$39.8b
5/5/2020 Markit US Services PMI 27 26.7 27 —
5/5/2020 Markit US Composite PMI — 27 27.4 —
5/5/2020 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 38 41.8 52.5 —
5/6/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications — 0.10% -3.30% —
5/6/2020 ADP Employment Change -20550k -20236k -27k -149k
5/7/2020 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — 1576.90% 266.90% —
5/7/2020 Nonfarm Productivity -5.50% -2.50% 1.20% —
5/7/2020 Unit Labor Costs 4.50% 4.80% 0.90% —
5/7/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 3000k 3169k 3839k 3846k
5/7/2020 Continuing Claims 19800k 22647k 17992k 18011k
5/7/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — 36.9 39.5 —
5/7/2020 Consumer Credit $15.000b — $22.331b —
5/8/2020 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — — —
5/8/2020 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls -21600k — -701k —
5/8/2020 Change in Private Payrolls -21340k — -713k —
5/8/2020 Change in Manufact. Payrolls -2500k — -18k —
5/8/2020 Unemployment Rate 16.00% — 4.40% —
5/8/2020 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.40% — 0.40% —
5/8/2020 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.30% — 3.10% —
5/8/2020 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 33.6 — 34.2 —
5/8/2020 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.00% — 62.70% —
5/8/2020 Underemployment Rate — — 8.70% —
5/8/2020 Wholesale Inventories MoM -1.00% — -1.00% —
5/8/2020 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM -3.00% — -0.80% —

 

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