May 7, 2020 Headlines

Treasury prices are slightly higher this morning following a relatively quiet overnight session, and S&P 500 futures are up 1.5% despite another dismal jobless claims report. There were another 3.2 million first-time unemployment claims last week, and continuing claims, which lags a week (as of April 25), rose to 22.6 million. Financial markets continue to shrug off this data given that the current circumstances, but it sets the table for a historically bad monthly jobs report tomorrow. Funding markets continue to heal amid massive Fed support. One-month Libor reset at 0.198% today, down 80 bps since the end of March and only 5 bps above the all-time low of 0.152% in 2014.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
5/4/2020Factory Orders-9.70%-10.30%0.00%-0.10%
5/4/2020Factory Orders Ex Trans—-3.70%-0.90%-1.10%
5/4/2020Durable Goods Orders-14.40%-14.70%-14.40%—
5/4/2020Durables Ex Transportation-0.20%-0.40%-0.20%—
5/4/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%-0.10%0.10%—
5/4/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air—-0.20%-0.20%—
5/5/2020Trade Balance-$44.2b-$44.4b-$39.9b-$39.8b
5/5/2020Markit US Services PMI2726.727—
5/5/2020Markit US Composite PMI—2727.4—
5/5/2020ISM Non-Manufacturing Index3841.852.5—
5/6/2020MBA Mortgage Applications—0.10%-3.30%—
5/6/2020ADP Employment Change-20550k-20236k-27k-149k
5/7/2020Challenger Job Cuts YoY—1576.90%266.90%—
5/7/2020Nonfarm Productivity-5.50%-2.50%1.20%—
5/7/2020Unit Labor Costs4.50%4.80%0.90%—
5/7/2020Initial Jobless Claims3000k3169k3839k3846k
5/7/2020Continuing Claims19800k22647k17992k18011k
5/7/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort—36.939.5—
5/7/2020Consumer Credit$15.000b—$22.331b—
5/8/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision————
5/8/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls-21600k—-701k—
5/8/2020Change in Private Payrolls-21340k—-713k—
5/8/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls-2500k—-18k—
5/8/2020Unemployment Rate16.00%—4.40%—
5/8/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%—0.40%—
5/8/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.30%—3.10%—
5/8/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees33.6—34.2—
5/8/2020Labor Force Participation Rate61.00%—62.70%—
5/8/2020Underemployment Rate——8.70%—
5/8/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM-1.00%—-1.00%—
5/8/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-3.00%—-0.80%—

 

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