May 7, 2021 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are much lower this morning following a weaker than expected jobs number. The 10-year fell 10 bps after April non-farm payrolls showed an increase of only 266,000. The 10-year has since retreated slightly and is currently 7 bps lower.

The market had expected the U.S. economy to add 1 million jobs in April as the economy continued to reopen. But it appears that comments from employers about the struggle to find new hires has manifested itself in this report. Given today’s weakness, tapering expectations will likely be pushed further out. During an interview on Bloomberg TV, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that today’s report supported the Fed’s “outcome based” approach and that the central bank will continue to wait on hard data rather than forecasts.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

05/03/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI60.760.560.6
05/03/21Construction Spending MoM1.60%0.20%-0.80%-0.60%
05/03/21ISM Manufacturing6560.764.7
05/03/21ISM Prices Paid8689.685.6
05/03/21ISM New Orders69.564.368
05/03/21ISM Employment55.159.6
05/03/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.60m18.51m17.75m
05/04/21Trade Balance-$74.4b-$74.4b-$71.1b-$70.5b
05/04/21Factory Orders1.30%1.10%-0.80%-0.50%
05/04/21Factory Orders Ex Trans1.80%1.70%-0.60%-0.20%
05/04/21Durable Goods Orders0.50%0.80%0.50%
05/04/21Durables Ex Transportation1.60%1.90%1.60%
05/04/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.90%1.20%0.90%
05/04/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.60%1.30%
05/05/21MBA Mortgage Applications-0.90%-2.50%
05/05/21ADP Employment Change850k742k517k565k
05/05/21Markit US Services PMI63.164.763.1
05/05/21Markit US Composite PMI63.562.2
05/05/21ISM Services Index64.162.763.7
05/06/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-96.60%-86.20%
05/06/21Nonfarm Productivity4.30%5.40%-4.20%-3.80%
05/06/21Unit Labor Costs-1.00%-0.30%6.00%5.60%
05/06/21Initial Jobless Claims538k498k553k590k
05/06/21Continuing Claims3620k3690k3660k3653k
05/06/21Langer Consumer Comfort54.455
05/07/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.00%0.70%-0.10%
05/07/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls1000k266k916k770k
05/07/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-78k
05/07/21Change in Private Payrolls933k218k780k708k
05/07/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls54k-18k53k54k
05/07/21Unemployment Rate5.80%6.10%6.00%
05/07/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY-0.40%0.30%4.20%
05/07/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.93534.9
05/07/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.60%61.70%61.50%
05/07/21Underemployment Rate10.40%10.70%
05/07/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.40%1.40%
05/07/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%-0.80%
05/07/21Consumer Credit$20.000b$27.578b
05/07/21Mortgage Delinquencies6.73%
05/07/21MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.56%

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