Treasuries are little changed following a relatively quiet weekend from a headlines perspective, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 7 points in a continuation of Friday’s positive price action. Last week’s US/China trade summit resulted in no major agreements, but China’s Commerce Ministry softened the tone this weekend by announcing it is studying measures to further lower import tariffs on some food, pharmaceuticals, and medical instruments. Additionally, a Reuters article today highlights an interview between China’s central bank governor Yi Gang and financial magazine Caixin, in which Yi said his country’s “huge” trade imbalance with the United States is a structural and long-term problem and should be viewed with rationality.
This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the April CPI report on Thursday. Last Friday’s jobs report showed weaker than expected growth in payrolls and wages, but the headline unemployment rate fell to an 18-year low of 3.9%. Regarding the latter, the decline was more attributable to a lower participation rate, but the U-6 underemployment rate also fell to 7.8% (lowest since 2001). Fed Chair Powell will be speaking overnight at a IMF conference in Switzerland.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | |
| 05/07/2018 | Consumer Credit | Mar | $16.000b | — | $10.601b |
| 05/08/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | Apr | 104.7 | — | 104.7 |
| 05/08/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | Mar | 6075 | — | 6052 |
| 05/09/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 4-May | — | — | -2.50% |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | Apr | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Apr | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | Apr | 0.20% | — | 0.40% |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | Apr | 2.80% | — | 3.00% |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Apr | 2.40% | — | 2.70% |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | Apr | — | — | 2.90% |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | Mar | — | — | 1.00% |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Mar F | 0.60% | — | 0.50% |
| 05/10/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 5-May | 218k | — | 211k |
| 05/10/2018 | Continuing Claims | 28-Apr | 1800k | — | 1756k |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI MoM | Apr | 0.30% | — | -0.10% |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Apr | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI YoY | Apr | 2.50% | — | 2.40% |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Apr | 2.20% | — | 2.10% |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Index NSA | Apr | 250.7 | — | 249.554 |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | Apr | — | — | 256.2 |
| 05/10/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | Apr | — | — | 0.90% |
| 05/10/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | Apr | — | — | 0.40% |
| 05/10/2018 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 05/10/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 6-May | — | — | 56.5 |
| 05/10/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | Apr | $215.0b | — | -$208.7b |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | Apr | 0.50% | — | 0.00% |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | Apr | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | Apr | 3.90% | — | 3.60% |
| 05/11/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | Apr | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
| 05/11/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | Apr | — | — | 3.40% |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | May P | 98.3 | — | 98.8 |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | May P | — | — | 114.9 |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | May P | — | — | 88.4 |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | May P | — | — | 2.70% |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | May P | — | — | 2.50% |
| 05/14/2018 | Mortgage Delinquencies | 1Q | — | — | 5.17% |
| 05/14/2018 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | 1Q | — | — | 1.19% |