Treasuries are little changed following a relatively quiet weekend from a headlines perspective, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 7 points in a continuation of Friday’s positive price action. Last week’s US/China trade summit resulted in no major agreements, but China’s Commerce Ministry softened the tone this weekend by announcing it is studying measures to further lower import tariffs on some food, pharmaceuticals, and medical instruments. Additionally, a Reuters article today highlights an interview between China’s central bank governor Yi Gang and  financial magazine Caixin, in which Yi said his country’s “huge” trade imbalance with the United States is a structural and long-term problem and should be viewed with rationality.

This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the April CPI report on Thursday. Last Friday’s jobs report showed weaker than expected growth in payrolls and wages, but the headline unemployment rate fell to an 18-year low of 3.9%. Regarding the latter, the decline was more attributable to a lower participation rate, but the U-6 underemployment rate also fell to 7.8% (lowest since 2001). Fed Chair Powell will be speaking overnight at a IMF conference in Switzerland.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPrior
05/07/2018Consumer CreditMar$16.000b$10.601b
05/08/2018NFIB Small Business OptimismApr104.7104.7
05/08/2018JOLTS Job OpeningsMar60756052
05/09/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4-May-2.50%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand MoMApr0.20%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMApr0.20%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoMApr0.20%0.40%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand YoYApr2.80%3.00%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYApr2.40%2.70%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoYApr2.90%
05/09/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoMMar1.00%
05/09/2018Wholesale Inventories MoMMar F0.60%0.50%
05/10/2018Initial Jobless Claims5-May218k211k
05/10/2018Continuing Claims28-Apr1800k1756k
05/10/2018CPI MoMApr0.30%-0.10%
05/10/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMApr0.20%0.20%
05/10/2018CPI YoYApr2.50%2.40%
05/10/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYApr2.20%2.10%
05/10/2018CPI Index NSAApr250.7249.554
05/10/2018CPI Core Index SAApr256.2
05/10/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYApr0.90%
05/10/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoYApr0.40%
05/10/2018Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/10/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort6-May56.5
05/10/2018Monthly Budget StatementApr$215.0b-$208.7b
05/11/2018Import Price Index MoMApr0.50%0.00%
05/11/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoMApr0.20%0.10%
05/11/2018Import Price Index YoYApr3.90%3.60%
05/11/2018Export Price Index MoMApr0.40%0.30%
05/11/2018Export Price Index YoYApr3.40%
05/11/2018U. of Mich. SentimentMay P98.398.8
05/11/2018U. of Mich. Current ConditionsMay P114.9
05/11/2018U. of Mich. ExpectationsMay P88.4
05/11/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationMay P2.70%
05/11/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationMay P2.50%
05/14/2018Mortgage Delinquencies1Q5.17%
05/14/2018MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1Q1.19%