May 8, 2019 Headlines

The risk-off trade in global markets continues this morning, with Treasuries well bid and equities lower. Treasury yields were initially higher overnight until a Reuters article was released reporting that Chinese officials had “backtracked” on essentially all major U.S. demands, including intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, competition policies, and currency manipulation. If true, this further reduces the odds of a deal being struck prior to Friday’s deadline, at which point U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will increase to 25%. Fed Governor Quarles echoed Jerome Powell’s position on recent inflation readings during a speech yesterday. “Inflation is difficult to measure precisely,” said Quarles. “From my point of view, 1.8% is 2%…I would not undergo heroic efforts, including rethinking our monetary policy framework or significant monetary policy stimulus, in order to edge 1.8 up to 2.” Quarles conditioned his comments by noting that if inflation “were at 1% forever you would have a different issue.”

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
5/8/2019MBA Mortgage Applications2.70%-4.30%
5/9/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.60%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.00%
5/9/2019PPI Final Demand YoY2.30%2.20%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.50%2.40%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.00%
5/9/2019Trade Balance-$50.1b-$49.4b
5/9/2019Initial Jobless Claims220k230k
5/9/2019Continuing Claims1670k1671k
5/9/2019Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/9/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.4
5/9/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.60%0.30%
5/9/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.00%0.00%
5/10/2019CPI MoM0.40%0.40%
5/10/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
5/10/2019CPI YoY2.10%1.90%
5/10/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.00%
5/10/2019CPI Core Index SA261.884261.374
5/10/2019CPI Index NSA255.809254.202
5/10/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.30%
5/10/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.30%1.40%
5/10/2019Monthly Budget Statement$160.0b$214.3b

 

 

 

 

 

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