May 8, 2019 Headlines

The risk-off trade in global markets continues this morning, with Treasuries well bid and equities lower. Treasury yields were initially higher overnight until a Reuters article was released reporting that Chinese officials had “backtracked” on essentially all major U.S. demands, including intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, competition policies, and currency manipulation. If true, this further reduces the odds of a deal being struck prior to Friday’s deadline, at which point U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will increase to 25%. Fed Governor Quarles echoed Jerome Powell’s position on recent inflation readings during a speech yesterday. “Inflation is difficult to measure precisely,” said Quarles. “From my point of view, 1.8% is 2%…I would not undergo heroic efforts, including rethinking our monetary policy framework or significant monetary policy stimulus, in order to edge 1.8 up to 2.” Quarles conditioned his comments by noting that if inflation “were at 1% forever you would have a different issue.”

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

5/8/2019MBA Mortgage Applications2.70%-4.30%
5/9/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.60%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.00%
5/9/2019PPI Final Demand YoY2.30%2.20%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.50%2.40%
5/9/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.00%
5/9/2019Trade Balance-$50.1b-$49.4b
5/9/2019Initial Jobless Claims220k230k
5/9/2019Continuing Claims1670k1671k
5/9/2019Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
5/9/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.4
5/9/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.60%0.30%
5/9/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.00%0.00%
5/10/2019CPI MoM0.40%0.40%
5/10/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
5/10/2019CPI YoY2.10%1.90%
5/10/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.00%
5/10/2019CPI Core Index SA261.884261.374
5/10/2019CPI Index NSA255.809254.202
5/10/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.30%
5/10/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.30%1.40%
5/10/2019Monthly Budget Statement$160.0b$214.3b






Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.