May 8, 2020 Headlines

As expected, the April jobs report painted a dismal picture of the U.S. labor market. Some will argue that it was better or worse than expected, but bottom line, more than 20mm Americans lost their jobs in a single month. The headline unemployment rate rose more than 10 points to 14.7% (16% expected). The lower-than-expected headline unemployment figure is more likely a technical issue, where survey participants responded that they were not immediately looking for a new job. As such, 6.4 million people left the official labor force, and the U-6 underemployment rate rose from 8.7% in March to 22.8% in April. Also worth noting, average hourly earnings were 4.7% month-over-month, which has to be a record, and it’s likely the result of a greater number of low-income workers losing their jobs. Yes, this was a government-mandated economic shutdown, and on a (somewhat) positive note, 78% of the job losses in the household survey were classified as temporary layoffs. This can, of course, change, but it’s another reminder of the unique circumstances we find ourselves in.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

5/4/2020Factory Orders-9.70%-10.30%0.00%-0.10%
5/4/2020Factory Orders Ex Trans-3.70%-0.90%-1.10%
5/4/2020Durable Goods Orders-14.40%-14.70%-14.40%
5/4/2020Durables Ex Transportation-0.20%-0.40%-0.20%
5/4/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%-0.10%0.10%
5/4/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.20%-0.20%
5/5/2020Trade Balance-$44.2b-$44.4b-$39.9b-$39.8b
5/5/2020Markit US Services PMI2726.727
5/5/2020Markit US Composite PMI2727.4
5/5/2020ISM Non-Manufacturing Index3841.852.5
5/6/2020MBA Mortgage Applications0.10%-3.30%
5/6/2020ADP Employment Change-20550k-20236k-27k-149k
5/7/2020Challenger Job Cuts YoY1576.90%266.90%
5/7/2020Nonfarm Productivity-5.50%-2.50%1.20%
5/7/2020Unit Labor Costs4.50%4.80%0.90%
5/7/2020Initial Jobless Claims3000k3169k3839k3846k
5/7/2020Continuing Claims19800k22647k17992k18011k
5/7/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort36.939.5
5/7/2020Consumer Credit$15.000b-$12.044b$22.331b$19.918b
5/8/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls-22000k-20500k-701k-870k
5/8/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-214k
5/8/2020Change in Private Payrolls-22000k-19520k-713k-842k
5/8/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls-2500k-1330k-18k-34k
5/8/2020Unemployment Rate16.00%14.70%4.40%
5/8/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%4.70%0.40%0.50%
5/8/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.30%7.90%3.10%3.30%
5/8/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees33.534.234.234.1
5/8/2020Labor Force Participation Rate61.00%60.20%62.70%
5/8/2020Underemployment Rate22.80%8.70%
5/8/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM-1.00%-1.00%
5/8/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-3.00%-0.80%


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