May 8, 2020 Headlines

As expected, the April jobs report painted a dismal picture of the U.S. labor market. Some will argue that it was better or worse than expected, but bottom line, more than 20mm Americans lost their jobs in a single month. The headline unemployment rate rose more than 10 points to 14.7% (16% expected). The lower-than-expected headline unemployment figure is more likely a technical issue, where survey participants responded that they were not immediately looking for a new job. As such, 6.4 million people left the official labor force, and the U-6 underemployment rate rose from 8.7% in March to 22.8% in April. Also worth noting, average hourly earnings were 4.7% month-over-month, which has to be a record, and it’s likely the result of a greater number of low-income workers losing their jobs. Yes, this was a government-mandated economic shutdown, and on a (somewhat) positive note, 78% of the job losses in the household survey were classified as temporary layoffs. This can, of course, change, but it’s another reminder of the unique circumstances we find ourselves in.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/4/2020 Factory Orders -9.70% -10.30% 0.00% -0.10%
5/4/2020 Factory Orders Ex Trans -3.70% -0.90% -1.10%
5/4/2020 Durable Goods Orders -14.40% -14.70% -14.40%
5/4/2020 Durables Ex Transportation -0.20% -0.40% -0.20%
5/4/2020 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.10% -0.10% 0.10%
5/4/2020 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.20% -0.20%
5/5/2020 Trade Balance -$44.2b -$44.4b -$39.9b -$39.8b
5/5/2020 Markit US Services PMI 27 26.7 27
5/5/2020 Markit US Composite PMI 27 27.4
5/5/2020 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 38 41.8 52.5
5/6/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.10% -3.30%
5/6/2020 ADP Employment Change -20550k -20236k -27k -149k
5/7/2020 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 1576.90% 266.90%
5/7/2020 Nonfarm Productivity -5.50% -2.50% 1.20%
5/7/2020 Unit Labor Costs 4.50% 4.80% 0.90%
5/7/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 3000k 3169k 3839k 3846k
5/7/2020 Continuing Claims 19800k 22647k 17992k 18011k
5/7/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 36.9 39.5
5/7/2020 Consumer Credit $15.000b -$12.044b $22.331b $19.918b
5/8/2020 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls -22000k -20500k -701k -870k
5/8/2020 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision -214k
5/8/2020 Change in Private Payrolls -22000k -19520k -713k -842k
5/8/2020 Change in Manufact. Payrolls -2500k -1330k -18k -34k
5/8/2020 Unemployment Rate 16.00% 14.70% 4.40%
5/8/2020 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.40% 4.70% 0.40% 0.50%
5/8/2020 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.30% 7.90% 3.10% 3.30%
5/8/2020 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 33.5 34.2 34.2 34.1
5/8/2020 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.00% 60.20% 62.70%
5/8/2020 Underemployment Rate 22.80% 8.70%
5/8/2020 Wholesale Inventories MoM -1.00% -1.00%
5/8/2020 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM -3.00% -0.80%

 

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