May 8, 2023 Headlines

Troubled regional bank stocks are trading higher for a second consecutive day in pre-market trading, which is fueling additional retracement in Treasury yields from last week’s overbought conditions. The stock price of embattled PacWest is up another 40% more than an hour ahead of the open to $8.03/share after the stock traded as low as $2.48/share last Thursday. The bank announced it was cutting its quarterly dividend to one cent to accelerate a plan to build capital. On the data front, the Fed will release an updated Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey this afternoon. The survey was conducted in April to cover the first quarter’s activity. The April CPI report will be released on Wednesday and is expected to show modest deceleration in core inflation. Several Fed leaders will also be speaking this week, beginning with Neel Kashkari (Minn. Fed) later this afternoon.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
5/8/2023 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.10% 0.10%
5/8/2023 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.40% 0.40%
5/8/2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
5/9/2023 NFIB Small Business Optimism 89.7 90.1
5/10/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.20%
5/10/2023 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.10%
5/10/2023 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.40%
5/10/2023 CPI YoY 5.00% 5.00%
5/10/2023 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.50% 5.60%
5/10/2023 CPI Index NSA 303.472 301.836
5/10/2023 CPI Core Index SA 306.243 305.24
5/10/2023 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -1.60% -1.50%
5/10/2023 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -0.70% -0.60%
5/10/2023 Monthly Budget Statement $235.0b -$378.1b
5/11/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 245k 242k
5/11/2023 Continuing Claims 1820k 1805k
5/11/2023 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.30% -0.50%
5/11/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% -0.10%
5/11/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.30% 0.10%
5/11/2023 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.50% 2.70%
5/11/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 3.30% 3.40%
5/11/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 3.60%
5/12/2023 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% -0.60%
5/12/2023 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.30% -0.60%
5/12/2023 Import Price Index YoY -4.80% -4.60%
5/12/2023 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% -0.30%
5/12/2023 Export Price Index YoY -5.50% -4.80%
5/12/2023 U. of Mich. Sentiment 63 63.5
5/12/2023 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 67.5 68.2
5/12/2023 U. of Mich. Expectations 60.8 60.5
5/12/2023 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.20% 4.60%
5/12/2023 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90% 3.00%
5/15/2023 Empire Manufacturing -5 10.8
5/15/2023 Net Long-term TIC Flows $71.0b
5/15/2023 Total Net TIC Flows $28.0b

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