Treasuries continue to trade in a fairly tight range, with prices essentially unchanged this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 6 points with no major headlines/events driving the move, other than perhaps modest breather following a 3% rally from last Thursday’s low point. President Trump is set to announce his decision on Iran by 2pm ET today. The general expectation in the market is that the United States will “exit” the existing nuclear deal with Iran, but the actual changes may be limited (i.e., more rhetoric than substance). Oil prices (WTI) are down nearly 1% today but have rallied 14% so far in 2018 (highest since 2014). Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke overnight in Switzerland, and he feels that the market is “well aligned” with the Fed’s current forecast for rate hikes (the dot plot). Fed funds futures are fully priced for two more rate hikes in 2018, and approximately 70% of the four hikes projected over the next year are fully priced. The Fed Chair also said he doesn’t think the Fed’s rate hikes pose as big of a risk to global markets and emerging market economies as many have thought. To be fair, it’s not just the rate hikes that has market participants concerned/cautious. It’s the combination of rate hikes and quantitative tightening (balance sheet reduction), particularly if/when the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan follow suit.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 05/07 | Consumer Credit | $15.200b | $11.622b | $10.601b | $13.639b |
| 05/08 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 104.5 | 104.8 | 104.7 | — |
| 05/08 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6100 | — | 6052 | — |
| 05/09 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.50% | — |
| 05/09 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/09 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.80% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 05/09 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 05/09 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 05/09 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 05/09 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 05/10 | Initial Jobless Claims | 219k | — | 211k | — |
| 05/10 | Continuing Claims | 1800k | — | 1756k | — |
| 05/10 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 05/10 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/10 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 05/10 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 05/10 | CPI Index NSA | 250.7 | — | 249.554 | — |
| 05/10 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 256.2 | — |
| 05/10 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 05/10 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 05/10 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 05/10 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.5 | — |
| 05/10 | Monthly Budget Statement | $212.0b | — | -$208.7b | — |
| 05/11 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 05/11 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 05/11 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 05/11 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/11 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 05/11 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98.3 | — | 98.8 | — |
| 05/11 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 114.9 | — |
| 05/11 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 88.4 | — |
| 05/11 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 05/11 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |