May 9, 2022 Headlines

Equities were under pressure again overnight, and U.S. futures are down 1.35%-2.20% approximately one hour ahead of the open. Treasuries are mixed and the curve steeper so far this morning. Front-end yields are 3-7 basis points lower and long-end yields 2-5 bps higher. Two of the more hawkish leaders at the Fed in recent months, Governor Christopher Waller and James Bullard (St. Louis Fed), are pushing back on the idea that the Fed is behind the curve on fighting inflation. Waller pointed to the fact that effective policy tightening began last September when markets began pricing for rate hikes given more hawkish comments from Fed leaders at that time. Bullard, one of the most outspoken hawks, reiterated that inflation is “far too high,” but he also noted the fact that markets have already priced an aggressive path for forward monetary policy. A big focus for this week will be the April CPI report released on Wednesday morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

05/09/22Wholesale Inventories MoM2.30%2.30%
05/09/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.80%1.70%
05/10/22NFIB Small Business Optimism92.993.2
05/11/22MBA Mortgage Applications2.50%
05/11/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-2.70%-2.60%
05/11/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.60%-3.50%
05/11/22CPI MoM0.20%1.20%
05/11/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.30%
05/11/22CPI YoY8.10%8.50%
05/11/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.00%6.50%
05/11/22CPI Index NSA288.742287.504
05/11/22CPI Core Index SA289.861288.811
05/11/22Monthly Budget Statement$220.0b-$192.7b
05/12/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.90%9.20%
05/12/22PPI Final Demand MoM0.50%1.40%
05/12/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.60%1.00%
05/12/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.60%0.90%
05/12/22PPI Final Demand YoY10.70%11.20%
05/12/22Initial Jobless Claims192k200k
05/12/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY7.00%
05/12/22Continuing Claims1370k1384k
05/13/22Import Price Index MoM0.60%2.60%
05/13/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.80%1.10%
05/13/22Import Price Index YoY12.10%12.50%
05/13/22Export Price Index MoM0.70%4.50%
05/13/22Export Price Index YoY18.80%
05/13/22Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/13/22U. of Mich. Sentiment6465.2
05/13/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions7069.4
05/13/22U. of Mich. Expectations61.562.5
05/13/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.50%5.40%
05/13/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%
05/13/22Revisions: Manufacturing Shipments, Orders, Inventories


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