Treasury prices continued to drift lower overnight, with the 10-year yield rising above 3% again for the first time since April 26. Today’s move is nearly parallel, and the curve is only one basis point steeper (2yr/10yr spread). The weakness in Treasuries overnight coincided with a rally in both the dollar and oil prices in the wake of the White House’s decision to exit the Iran nuclear deal. The dollar has since weakened but oil prices remain +2.5% on the day. Price action in global equity markets is mixed, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 7 points. Regarding Iran, the country said it would maintain negotiations with Europe, China, and Russia to stay within the parameters of the nuclear agreement, but at the same time, it threated to ramp up uranium enrichment if a new nuclear deal isn’t successfully executed.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
05/07/2018Consumer Credit$15.200b$11.622b$10.601b$13.639b
05/08/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism104.5104.8104.7
05/08/2018JOLTS Job Openings6100655060526078
05/09/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.40%-2.50%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%0.40%
05/09/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%2.60%3.00%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.30%2.70%
05/09/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%2.90%
05/09/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.50%
05/09/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%
05/10/2018Initial Jobless Claims219k211k
05/10/2018Continuing Claims1800k1756k
05/10/2018CPI MoM0.30%-0.10%
05/10/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
05/10/2018CPI YoY2.50%2.40%
05/10/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.10%
05/10/2018CPI Index NSA250.7249.554
05/10/2018CPI Core Index SA256.2
05/10/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.90%
05/10/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.40%0.30%
05/10/2018Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey
05/10/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.5
05/10/2018Monthly Budget Statement$212.0b-$208.7b
05/11/2018Import Price Index MoM0.50%0.00%
05/11/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%
05/11/2018Import Price Index YoY3.90%3.60%
05/11/2018Export Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%
05/11/2018Export Price Index YoY3.40%
05/11/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment98.398.8
05/11/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.9
05/11/2018U. of Mich. Expectations88.4
05/11/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
05/11/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
05/14/2018Mortgage Delinquencies5.17%
05/14/2018MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.19%
05/15/2018Empire Manufacturing1515.8
05/15/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%0.60%
05/15/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%0.20%
05/15/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%
05/15/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%
05/15/2018Business Inventories0.20%0.60%
05/15/2018NAHB Housing Market Index7069
05/15/2018Total Net TIC Flows$44.7b
05/15/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.0b
05/16/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.40%
05/16/2018Revisions: Housing Starts
05/16/2018Housing Starts1319k1319k
05/16/2018Housing Starts MoM0.00%1.90%
05/16/2018Building Permits1343k1354k1379k
05/16/2018Building Permits MoM-2.60%2.50%4.40%
05/16/2018Industrial Production MoM0.60%0.50%
05/16/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%
05/16/2018Capacity Utilization78.40%78.00%