Treasury prices continued to drift lower overnight, with the 10-year yield rising above 3% again for the first time since April 26. Today’s move is nearly parallel, and the curve is only one basis point steeper (2yr/10yr spread). The weakness in Treasuries overnight coincided with a rally in both the dollar and oil prices in the wake of the White House’s decision to exit the Iran nuclear deal. The dollar has since weakened but oil prices remain +2.5% on the day. Price action in global equity markets is mixed, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 7 points. Regarding Iran, the country said it would maintain negotiations with Europe, China, and Russia to stay within the parameters of the nuclear agreement, but at the same time, it threated to ramp up uranium enrichment if a new nuclear deal isn’t successfully executed.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 05/07/2018 | Consumer Credit | $15.200b | $11.622b | $10.601b | $13.639b |
| 05/08/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 104.5 | 104.8 | 104.7 | — |
| 05/08/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6100 | 6550 | 6052 | 6078 |
| 05/09/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.40% | -2.50% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.40% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.80% | 2.60% | 3.00% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.70% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.50% | 2.90% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 05/09/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 219k | — | 211k | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1800k | — | 1756k | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 250.7 | — | 249.554 | — |
| 05/10/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 256.2 | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 05/10/2018 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 05/10/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.5 | — |
| 05/10/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | $212.0b | — | -$208.7b | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98.3 | — | 98.8 | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 114.9 | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 88.4 | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 05/11/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 05/14/2018 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 5.17% | — |
| 05/14/2018 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 1.19% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 15 | — | 15.8 | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 05/15/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 70 | — | 69 | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $44.7b | — |
| 05/15/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $49.0b | — |
| 05/16/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.40% | — |
| 05/16/2018 | Revisions: Housing Starts | ||||
| 05/16/2018 | Housing Starts | 1319k | — | 1319k | — |
| 05/16/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 05/16/2018 | Building Permits | 1343k | — | 1354k | 1379k |
| 05/16/2018 | Building Permits MoM | -2.60% | — | 2.50% | 4.40% |
| 05/16/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 05/16/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 05/16/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 78.40% | — | 78.00% | — |