Monthly Market Commentary

Economic Update • The Treasury market repriced in the first quarter to be more aligned with Fed guidance • Many are still expecting a soft landing for the U.S. economy, but that scenario will likely depend on inflation moving lower in a timely manner • Fed leaders are...

Economic Update • Upside data surprises and less dovish Fed guidance have forced markets to once again pare back expectations for a dovish Fed pivot in the coming months • The Fed was created to be an independent, non-political agency, but the November elections could...

Economic Update The economy continues to defy the more pessimistic market narrative, most recently evidenced by a blowout January jobs report Household balance sheets were buoyed by significant stimulus during the pandemic, and consumer credit fundamentals still...

Economic Update The U.S. economy greatly outperformed economist expectations in 2023, but we open 2024 with another relatively pessimistic outlook from the economist community We unveil our 2024 themes for the U.S. economy and financial institutions We begin 2024 with...

Economic Update • The U.S. economy has outperformed economist and market expectations in 2023 thanks to resilient U.S. households • After accounting for inflation, liquid assets of most U.S. households are back to pre-COVID levels, which could lead to more subdued...

Economic Update Technical factors have contributed to higher real yields in multiple large fixed income markets in recent months Housing affordability is the worst it has been in decades amid a sharp rise in mortgage rates and sticky home prices Liquidity has...

Economic Update • Some have characterized the latest Fed economic forecasts as the ‘Immaculate Disinflation' • The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations with still-healthy fundamentals, but there are multiple headwinds to navigate over the next year • The last...

Economic Update • Treasury yields reached 15-year highs across much of the curve in August • Economic optimism and rising U.S. budget deficits have pressured long-end benchmark yields higher in recent weeks • Community-based financial institutions are experiencing...

Economic Update • After a brief pause in June, the FOMC announced its 11th rate hike of the current cycle on July 26, and Fed Chair Powell struck a more neutral tone in the press conference • Market pricing has become more aligned with Fed guidance for 2024 interest...

Economic Update The 2nd half of 2023 begins with no more certainty on the timing or severity of a business cycle change Consumers have proven more resilient than many economists expected, and while savings have eroded over the last year, the windfall of COVID stimulus...