November 1, 2019 Headlines

Although most of Europe was on holiday, US Treasuries were weaker following a better than expected US jobs report despite the effects of the GM strike and layoffs related to 2020 census workers. The headline number showed non-farm payrolls increasing by 128k in October compared to survey estimates of 85k. In addition, both August and September were upwardly revised by a total of 95k. Wage growth disappointed MoM but the YoY pace came in line with expectations. Later today, US and Chinese officials are expected to hold a call. Negotiations between the US and China remains at the center of attention as a report yesterday doubted the ability for both sides to reach a comprehensive long-term deal.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/28/2019Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0-0.450.10.15
10/28/2019Advance Goods Trade Balance-$73.5b-$70.4b-$72.8b-$73.1b
10/28/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%-0.30%0.20%0.00%
10/28/2019Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.30%0.00%-0.20%
10/28/2019Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1-5.11.5
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA-0.10%-0.16%0.02%0.04%
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.10%2.03%2.00%2.03%
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index218.14218218.05
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.17%3.18%3.14%
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index212.06211.72211.63
10/29/2019Conf. Board Consumer Confidence128125.9125.1126.3
10/29/2019Conf. Board Present Situation172.3169170.6
10/29/2019Conf. Board Expectations94.995.896.8
10/29/2019Pending Home Sales MoM0.90%1.50%1.60%1.40%
10/29/2019Pending Home Sales NSA YoY3.60%6.30%1.10%1.00%
10/30/2019MBA Mortgage Applications0.60%-11.90%
10/30/2019ADP Employment Change110k125k135k93k
10/30/2019GDP Annualized QoQ1.60%1.90%2.00%
10/30/2019Personal Consumption2.60%2.90%4.60%
10/30/2019GDP Price Index1.90%1.70%2.40%
10/30/2019Core PCE QoQ2.20%2.20%1.90%
10/30/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.75%2.00%
10/30/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.50%1.75%
10/30/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.55%1.55%1.80%
10/31/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY-33.50%-24.80%
10/31/2019Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%0.60%
10/31/2019Personal Income0.30%0.30%0.40%0.50%
10/31/2019Personal Spending0.30%0.20%0.10%0.20%
10/31/2019Real Personal Spending0.20%0.20%0.10%0.20%
10/31/2019PCE Deflator MoM0.00%0.00%0.00%
10/31/2019PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.30%1.40%
10/31/2019PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.00%0.10%
10/31/2019PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.70%1.80%
10/31/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k218k212k213k
10/31/2019Continuing Claims1679k1690k1682k1683k
10/31/2019MNI Chicago PMI4843.247.1
10/31/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort6163.4
11/1/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls85k128k136k180k
11/1/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision95k
11/1/2019Change in Private Payrolls80k131k114k167k
11/1/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls-55k-36k-2k-5k
11/1/2019Unemployment Rate3.60%3.60%3.50%
11/1/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%0.00%
11/1/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.00%2.90%3.00%
11/1/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.434.4
11/1/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.10%63.30%63.20%
11/1/2019Underemployment Rate7.00%6.90%
11/1/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI51.551.351.5
11/1/2019ISM Manufacturing48.947.8
11/1/2019ISM Employment46.3
11/1/2019ISM Prices Paid5049.7
11/1/2019ISM New Orders47.3
11/1/2019Construction Spending MoM0.20%0.10%
11/1/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m17.19m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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