November 1, 2019 Headlines

Although most of Europe was on holiday, US Treasuries were weaker following a better than expected US jobs report despite the effects of the GM strike and layoffs related to 2020 census workers. The headline number showed non-farm payrolls increasing by 128k in October compared to survey estimates of 85k. In addition, both August and September were upwardly revised by a total of 95k. Wage growth disappointed MoM but the YoY pace came in line with expectations. Later today, US and Chinese officials are expected to hold a call. Negotiations between the US and China remains at the center of attention as a report yesterday doubted the ability for both sides to reach a comprehensive long-term deal.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/28/2019 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0 -0.45 0.1 0.15
10/28/2019 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$73.5b -$70.4b -$72.8b -$73.1b
10/28/2019 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.20% -0.30% 0.20% 0.00%
10/28/2019 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.00% -0.20%
10/28/2019 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 1 -5.1 1.5
10/29/2019 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA -0.10% -0.16% 0.02% 0.04%
10/29/2019 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 2.10% 2.03% 2.00% 2.03%
10/29/2019 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 218.14 218 218.05
10/29/2019 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 3.17% 3.18% 3.14%
10/29/2019 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 212.06 211.72 211.63
10/29/2019 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 128 125.9 125.1 126.3
10/29/2019 Conf. Board Present Situation 172.3 169 170.6
10/29/2019 Conf. Board Expectations 94.9 95.8 96.8
10/29/2019 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.90% 1.50% 1.60% 1.40%
10/29/2019 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 3.60% 6.30% 1.10% 1.00%
10/30/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.60% -11.90%
10/30/2019 ADP Employment Change 110k 125k 135k 93k
10/30/2019 GDP Annualized QoQ 1.60% 1.90% 2.00%
10/30/2019 Personal Consumption 2.60% 2.90% 4.60%
10/30/2019 GDP Price Index 1.90% 1.70% 2.40%
10/30/2019 Core PCE QoQ 2.20% 2.20% 1.90%
10/30/2019 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1.75% 1.75% 2.00%
10/30/2019 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.50% 1.50% 1.75%
10/30/2019 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 1.55% 1.55% 1.80%
10/31/2019 Challenger Job Cuts YoY -33.50% -24.80%
10/31/2019 Employment Cost Index 0.70% 0.70% 0.60%
10/31/2019 Personal Income 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%
10/31/2019 Personal Spending 0.30% 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
10/31/2019 Real Personal Spending 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
10/31/2019 PCE Deflator MoM 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
10/31/2019 PCE Deflator YoY 1.40% 1.30% 1.40%
10/31/2019 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
10/31/2019 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.70% 1.70% 1.80%
10/31/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 218k 212k 213k
10/31/2019 Continuing Claims 1679k 1690k 1682k 1683k
10/31/2019 MNI Chicago PMI 48 43.2 47.1
10/31/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61 63.4
11/1/2019 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 85k 128k 136k 180k
11/1/2019 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision 95k
11/1/2019 Change in Private Payrolls 80k 131k 114k 167k
11/1/2019 Change in Manufact. Payrolls -55k -36k -2k -5k
11/1/2019 Unemployment Rate 3.60% 3.60% 3.50%
11/1/2019 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.20% 0.00%
11/1/2019 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.00% 3.00% 2.90% 3.00%
11/1/2019 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.4 34.4 34.4
11/1/2019 Labor Force Participation Rate 63.10% 63.30% 63.20%
11/1/2019 Underemployment Rate 7.00% 6.90%
11/1/2019 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.3 51.5
11/1/2019 ISM Manufacturing 48.9 47.8
11/1/2019 ISM Employment 46.3
11/1/2019 ISM Prices Paid 50 49.7
11/1/2019 ISM New Orders 47.3
11/1/2019 Construction Spending MoM 0.20% 0.10%
11/1/2019 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.00m 17.19m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.