November 1, 2021 Headlines

US Treasuries continue to sell off on decreased volume ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement. After 19-months of quantitative easing, the institution is expected to taper asset purchases and withdraw stimulus. At the same time, a reduction to US Treasury notes and offering sizes is a high probability but the details remain uncertain. On the economic calendar, non-farm payrolls will be released Friday with consensus estimates predicting a 450k increase compared to the prior months 192k.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

11/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.258.459.2
11/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.30%0.00%
11/01/21ISM Manufacturing60.561.1
11/01/21ISM Prices Paid8281.2
11/01/21ISM New Orders64.266.7
11/01/21ISM Employment5150.2
11/02/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales12.50m12.18m
11/03/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%
11/03/21ADP Employment Change400k568k
11/03/21ISM Services Index6261.9
11/03/21Factory Orders0.00%1.20%
11/03/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.00%0.50%
11/03/21Durable Goods Orders-0.40%-0.40%
11/03/21Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.40%
11/03/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.80%
11/03/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.40%
11/03/21Markit US Services PMI58.258.2
11/03/21Markit US Composite PMI57.3
11/03/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
11/03/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
11/03/21Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.15%0.15%
11/04/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-84.90%
11/04/21Initial Jobless Claims275k281k
11/04/21Continuing Claims2147k2243k
11/04/21Nonfarm Productivity-3.20%2.10%
11/04/21Unit Labor Costs7.00%1.30%
11/04/21Trade Balance-$80.1b-$73.3b
11/04/21Langer Consumer Comfort47.9
11/05/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls450k194k
11/05/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision169k
11/05/21Change in Private Payrolls408k317k
11/05/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls29k26k
11/05/21Unemployment Rate4.70%4.80%
11/05/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.60%
11/05/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.90%4.60%
11/05/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.834.8
11/05/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%61.60%
11/05/21Underemployment Rate8.50%
11/05/21Consumer Credit$16.000b$14.379b

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